How many more Israelis would have lived in the West Bank right now had Israel conquered it in 1949?

pugsville

Ad Honorem
Oct 2010
9,672
So, what happens to Jordan if it experiences a collapse and breakdown in this scenario? Does Jordan get partitioned between Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq?
It's not exactly a highly valuable piece of real estate. Both Syria and Saudis had designs, count out Iraq, connections are awful land-wise to Iraq. Syria seems better place to take advanatge of local instability to intervene to "restore order".

I would not totally count out a Israeli move to take all of the orginal mandate of Paletsine (whichteh Irgun always claimed). Unlikley but more likely than Iraq., Remeber in 1956 ben-Gurin asked the French and British for the west bank, southern lebannon in addition to the sinai.Expansion was on the agenda.

I cannot see a candidate that naturall appeals to the major world players (which would make them very likely)
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,357
SoCal
It's not exactly a highly valuable piece of real estate. Both Syria and Saudis had designs, count out Iraq, connections are awful land-wise to Iraq. Syria seems better place to take advanatge of local instability to intervene to "restore order".

I would not totally count out a Israeli move to take all of the orginal mandate of Paletsine (whichteh Irgun always claimed). Unlikley but more likely than Iraq., Remeber in 1956 ben-Gurin asked the French and British for the west bank, southern lebannon in addition to the sinai.Expansion was on the agenda.

I cannot see a candidate that naturall appeals to the major world players (which would make them very likely)
Does Syria outright annex Jordan if it conquers it?

As for Israel, I suspect that the negative publicity that it would get from a mass expulsion of Jordanian Arabs (and it would have to be a mass expulsion this time around since there are only so many Arabs that Israel can absorb without threatening its Jewish character) would cause it to refrain from undertaking any drastic actions such as that.
 

pugsville

Ad Honorem
Oct 2010
9,672
Does Syria outright annex Jordan if it conquers it?

As for Israel, I suspect that the negative publicity that it would get from a mass expulsion of Jordanian Arabs (and it would have to be a mass expulsion this time around since there are only so many Arabs that Israel can absorb without threatening its Jewish character) would cause it to refrain from undertaking any drastic actions such as that.
Israel directly expelling some 200,000 Palestinians at least in 1948, I think that qualifies as mass expulsion.

Israeli cuupied southern Lebanon for a long time. Holds the west bank without admittng the west bank population into teh Israeli population. I don't see why Jordan couldnot be occipied without mass expulsion. It would be extravegant move that does seem unjustifible to world public opinion, but jewish leaders have gotten away with a lot. I eman 1956 was easily a more provatctive and just as naked land grab. Israel survived that quite happily in the end and took the land in 1967 again.

Early Israeli leaders never suffered from a lack of chutzpah or dreaming big.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,357
SoCal
Israel directly expelling some 200,000 Palestinians at least in 1948, I think that qualifies as mass expulsion.
Yes, it does, but by "mass expulsion" here, I meant the expulsion of the entire Jordanian Arab population. That's certainly not going to happen.

Also, in spite of all of the Arabs that Israel did expel in 1948-1949, a lot of Arabs were allowed to stay. Large parts of northern Israel are Arab-majority even today:



Considering that Israel allowed a lot of Arabs to stay in 1948-1949, there's no way in hell that it's going to expel the entire Jordanian Arab population.

Israeli cuupied southern Lebanon for a long time. Holds the west bank without admittng the west bank population into teh Israeli population. I don't see why Jordan couldnot be occipied without mass expulsion. It would be extravegant move that does seem unjustifible to world public opinion, but jewish leaders have gotten away with a lot. I eman 1956 was easily a more provatctive and just as naked land grab. Israel survived that quite happily in the end and took the land in 1967 again.

Early Israeli leaders never suffered from a lack of chutzpah or dreaming big.
Points taken. However, does Jordan actually hold as much value to Jewish ultra-nationalists as the West Bank does?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,357
SoCal
Hey pugsville, I have a question for you: Do you think that the large-scale post-1967 Israeli settlement in East Jerusalem and the Jerusalem suburbs (Gush Etzion, Ma'ale Adummim, Givat Ze'ev, et cetera) was primarily religiously/ideologically motivated or do you think that it was primarily motivated by a desire to live in Jerusalem and/or its suburbs but at a cheaper cost than living in the overcrowded West Jerusalem?