How may these three civil wars develop? (Syrian, Libyan, Somali)

VHS

Ad Honorem
Dec 2015
4,603
Florania
In spite interstate wars and conflicts have been very rare (at least lately), we are witnessing at least three ongoing civil wars:
1) Syrian Civil War (there is an extensive thread on this already).
2) Libyan Civil War
3) Somali Civil War
Somali Civil War has lasted the longest, and full national unity might not be restored.
Libya? It is still in a turmoil.
Can anyone explain why only Tunisia emerged relatively well after the Arab Spring?
 
Jul 2014
969
Crna Gora
Can anyone explain why only Tunisia emerged relatively well after the Arab Spring?
Just from top of my head, their government managed to control the situation? Nobody had big interest in Tunisia so there was no intervention, it's also a small territory compared to others, so easier to handle I guess.
 
Mar 2014
8,881
Canterbury
Tunisia, to the best of my knowledge, isn't sliced up between competing nations or vast regional socio-economic disparities.
 
Feb 2016
5,049
Atlantic Ocean
1, Anyone's guess at this point hell it could become a Turkish-Arab vs Russian border war for all we know none of us are Putin or the Turkish fella so yeah

2, Still controllable but could easily fall apart quickly if it is mismanaged

3, A god damn Cluster**** that not many people care about a possible sepration of the country perhaps

And Badwolf, Domhnall Balloch have answered the Tunisian question already
 

Shaheen

Ad Honorem
May 2011
2,564
Sweden
Can anyone explain why only Tunisia emerged relatively well after the Arab Spring?
Their secular and islamist political parties showed a lot maturity and pragmatism by forming coalition governments. My guess is that Tunisia has been relatively stable because it has sought to accommodate into the mainstream, the different ideologies present within its borders. Its when these movements go underground that the risk of extremism increases.
Further the Tunisian army is a lot more apolitical and removed from politics, than say the Egyptian one is. Democracy is still fragile in the country though but if theres any Arab country where it will succeed, then the best bet is Tunisia.
 

Iraq Bruin

Ad Honorem
Oct 2010
5,195
DC
Tunisia was the only organic one , the rest were an emulation (even if they were genuine) or encouraged by someone else.
 
Sep 2012
339
Brazil
Interstate wars have been rare indeed, but there are risk of civil wars spilling over to neighbor countries. The Syrian civil war and the Iraq civil war are practically one big war that ignores borders. And with parties involved with international ideologies, like ISIS and Al-Qaeda, or nationalities involved that are present in more than 1 country, like the Kurds, there is risk of the Syrian-Iraq chaos spill over into Turkey or Jordan.
Another civil war to monitor is the one in Yemen, that presents risks to southern Saudi Arabia.
 

VHS

Ad Honorem
Dec 2015
4,603
Florania
Interstate wars have been rare indeed, but there are risk of civil wars spilling over to neighbor countries. The Syrian civil war and the Iraq civil war are practically one big war that ignores borders. And with parties involved with international ideologies, like ISIS and Al-Qaeda, or nationalities involved that are present in more than 1 country, like the Kurds, there is risk of the Syrian-Iraq chaos spill over into Turkey or Jordan.
Another civil war to monitor is the one in Yemen, that presents risks to southern Saudi Arabia.
Both the Syrian and Iraqi civil wars can be attributed to weaknesses in local governance.

Shaheen said:
Their secular and islamist political parties showed a lot maturity and pragmatism by forming coalition governments. My guess is that Tunisia has been relatively stable because it has sought to accommodate into the mainstream, the different ideologies present within its borders. Its when these movements go underground that the risk of extremism increases.
Further the Tunisian army is a lot more apolitical and removed from politics, than say the Egyptian one is. Democracy is still fragile in the country though but if theres any Arab country where it will succeed, then the best bet is Tunisia.
While Tunisia is far from ideal, it has more balanced developments than most of its neighbours; it is also relatively mononational (99% Arabized Berber and 99% Sunni Muslims).
Still, it sounds like it is in the middle income trap.
 
Mar 2010
3,660
Czechoslovakia
I see Turkey as a next candidate if the Erdogan continues in his course. Removing him by power will be a necessary option soon.
 

kazeuma

Ad Honorem
Jun 2012
2,371
Let us be honest here... Maybe the Russians have the right idea of keeping Assad.

Say Assad goes the way of the dodo, this leaves a massive power vacuum in the Middle East. This vacuum would be filled by a thousand political parties that would tear apart Syria, a thousand parties fighting each other for power, and there is ISIS next door which will see an opportunity to fill that void. There would not be democratic elections, even if they were what if an ISIS candidate runs and wins the election - then what?

The Russians realize that at least Assad is a lunatic that can be controlled and will keep the nation from utter chaos.

The best solution for Syria is a joint government between the Assad regime and the rebels against a common enemy - ISIS and then you can have UN monitored elections.