How would Central Asia have developed without a Russian conquest?

Apr 2017
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Yep. Interestingly enough, had it not been for the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, it's actually possible that, after winning in Afghanistan, the Taliban would have tried to export radical Islam to Tajikistan by supporting Tajik Islamists. :(
Radical islam was already present in Tajikistan during the civil war.
 
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Apr 2017
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Yes, but they didn't have Afghan help back then--did they?
Yes they did, initially some of the islamists were driven out of the country. They reorganized with the help of some Afghan factions. This created the bizarre situation where Afghanistan was supporting an insurgency in a former soviet territory and Russian troops were called in to help. The factions that would form the Taliban were not involved to my knowledge though.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
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SoCal
OK. Anyway, though, without 9/11, the Taliban would have won the civil war in Afghanistan and then it would have been in a position to help the Tajik Islamists seize power if it would have so desired.
 
Apr 2017
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OK. Anyway, though, without 9/11, the Taliban would have won the civil war in Afghanistan and then it would have been in a position to help the Tajik Islamists seize power if it would have so desired.
I'm not overly familiar with the politics of the region and time but the main opposition to the Taliban was the Northern alliance, which was primarily a Tajik group. If the Taliban crushed them, it may not make them very popular in Tajikistan.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
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SoCal
I'm not overly familiar with the politics of the region and time but the main opposition to the Taliban was the Northern alliance, which was primarily a Tajik group. If the Taliban crushed them, it may not make them very popular in Tajikistan.
I think that a shared Islamist ideology is going to make the Taliban and Tajik Islamists common bedfellows in spite of any ethnic tensions that they might have had with each other, though.
 
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Apr 2017
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I think that a shared Islamist ideology is going to make the Taliban and Tajik Islamists common bedfellows in spite of any ethnic tensions that they might have had with each other, though.
Further research has shown that one of the afghan groups that aided the islamists in the Tajik civil war, Jamiat-e-Islam, was primarily Tajik and later joined the Northern alliance.
 
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Apr 2017
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Oh wow!

BTW, I got the relevant idea from this 2000 book:

Energy and Conflict in Central Asia and the Caucasus
Interesting, I think they imply that as more likely if the Taliban won in the early 90's. By the late 90's the former soviets states had rallied against Islamic radicalism. Perhaps if the Taliban crushed all opposition in say, 92, then they may begin to export it north. I very much doubt they would try to annex new territory.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
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The Taliban didn't actually exist until 1994, though. It was created when lawlessness ran rampant in Kandahar and people begged their local mullah--Mullah Omar--to help them restore order. So, he founded the Taliban and did just that--extremely brutally, of course. :(