Human extinction

Oct 2018
1,209
Adelaide south Australia
I'll go for solipsism ,

as for populations , one of the phenomenon common in nature is called a population crash

when an organism multiply using a non ( or slow ) renewable source of sustenance
it's number grossly exceed it's sustainable base ,
sort of , living of the fat of the land
the population readjust itself in a dramatic fashion of less than a life span when the sustenance run out

the classic example is the reineers of St Matthew island
instead of Reindeers put humans ans instead of moss put fossil carbon

I hadn't heard of a population crash. I had assumed something like that after a mouse plague caused by overabundance of food.

I've always thought there will be a human die-back once a tipping point is reached. Opinions I've read claim we are nowhere near that point yet. From what I can gather, the world is currently producing far more than is needed. The problem is distribution. I suspect that is caused, at least in part , by our capitalist system. Countries with an excess of food simply cannot/will not simply give away the excess to people who are starving.

Business is easily as amoral as politics.


Here in South Australia mouse outbreaks occur about every ten years.

,
 

sparky

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
5,012
Sydney
the "interesting" things about population crashes is their extreme suddenness and violence
the population actually crash BELOW it's possible number ,
the survivors engaging in a frenzied competition for survival
 
Oct 2018
1,209
Adelaide south Australia
the "interesting" things about population crashes is their extreme suddenness and violence
the population actually crash BELOW it's possible number ,
the survivors engaging in a frenzied competition for survival
THAT is indeed fascinating. It does not stretch my imagination at all to see human beings behave in such a way. Do you have any ideas about how far we are from such a state?

My perception is that considering the current very visible climate changes,, we could be nearer than we think. I'm hoping I'll be dead before then.----------

Don't know how long I would last. I'm comforted by an adage which seems about right to me "Youth and enthusiasm is no match for old age and treachery":hug:
 

sparky

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
5,012
Sydney
nobody know ,from now to one generation ,
the later it occur , the more sudden and violent the outcome
the trigger could be very trivial
from Human experience it would probably take the form of a merciless conflict ,
destruction or denial of essential "strategic" resources , end of world shipping of goods and food
population would not be targeted as such , that's a waste of ammo
this is moot , the electrical grid targeting would throw societies in a state of utter chaos
 

VHS

Ad Honorem
Dec 2015
4,621
Florania
nobody know ,from now to one generation ,
the later it occur , the more sudden and violent the outcome
the trigger could be very trivial
from Human experience it would probably take the form of a merciless conflict ,
destruction or denial of essential "strategic" resources , end of world shipping of goods and food
population would not be targeted as such , that's a waste of ammo
this is moot , the electrical grid targeting would throw societies in a state of utter chaos
The end of humanity is not the end of life on earth, and we can be assured of that.
With these major issues, it sounds like power struggles between polities are somewhat trivial.
Why are humans so concerned with trivial stuffs?
 
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Oct 2018
1,209
Adelaide south Australia
nobody know ,from now to one generation ,
the later it occur , the more sudden and violent the outcome
the trigger could be very trivial
from Human experience it would probably take the form of a merciless conflict ,
destruction or denial of essential "strategic" resources , end of world shipping of goods and food
population would not be targeted as such , that's a waste of ammo
this is moot , the electrical grid targeting would throw societies in a state of utter chaos
It would take far less than most people realise to put urban living into chaos. Electricity and computers of course. Much simpler would be if water pumping stations shut down.

With that obnoxious little pudding in North Korea, a nuclear war is not out of the question.

Over the last few years I've been thinking more in terms of a pandemic for which there is no vaccine. "Herd immunity" might save save enough people for the species to survive, but the first couple of generations at least, would probably have a very rough time.
 
Oct 2018
1,209
Adelaide south Australia
The end of humanity is not the end of life on earth, and we can be assured of that.
With these major issues, it sounds like power struggles between polities are somewhat trivial.
Why are humans so concerned with trivial stuffs?
Survival is not a trivial thing,, but our most powerful instinct. So of course it concerns people.. That's fine, unless it becomes obsessive.

My observation is that youth tend not to dwell on the idea of their own death, even if they happen to be in a war.
 

sparky

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
5,012
Sydney
I'm thinking food production ,
the number of human alive exactly match the quantity of food available
so far the aggro-business has done wonder to feed 7.5 billions mouths
thanks to this man in particular , he was said to have saved one billion lives
Norman Borlaug - Wikipedia

this is with a massive use of oil and natural gas to produce fertilizers , pesticides and fungicides
power the machinery , process the nutrient and transport them often for intercontinental distances
should there be less energy available , there would be less food, Hence less humans
half a dozen choke point control the majority of those energy exchange

for those interested in the world food production this is the best
WASDE , a monthly report which make world markets shake

USDA-Office of the Chief Economist


Do not believe for one second that some intelligent rationing could moderate this
 
Oct 2018
1,209
Adelaide south Australia
I'm thinking food production ,
the number of human alive exactly match the quantity of food available
so far the aggro-business has done wonder to feed 7.5 billions mouths
thanks to this man in particular , he was said to have saved one billion lives
Norman Borlaug - Wikipedia

this is with a massive use of oil and natural gas to produce fertilizers , pesticides and fungicides
power the machinery , process the nutrient and transport them often for intercontinental distances
should there be less energy available , there would be less food, Hence less humans
half a dozen choke point control the majority of those energy exchange

for those interested in the world food production this is the best
WASDE , a monthly report which make world markets shake

USDA-Office of the Chief Economist


Do not believe for one second that some intelligent rationing could moderate this
Lack of food seems to be the most likely long term cause of a population crash. However, not quite yet. As I understand it, current food production and capacity of production far exceeds the amount needed to feed the world.

Gandhi summed up thee problem quite pithily I think "There is enough for every man's need, but not enough for every man's greed"


OT A simple check of thee sincerity of affluent socialist and other idealists: They want those without to have enough of everything to at least survive. Does that mean that they personally are willing to have a lot less?
 

sparky

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
5,012
Sydney
"Far exceed " is not quite right ,
the excess margin of grains held in storage is about a month , sometime a bit more , then prices crash or less and prices soars
it's called the " end of year stocks "
farming production is hitting some pretty serious limits , lack of more good farming land , lack of ground water
this led to even more intensive farming techniques requiring even more energy input

never in history has so much being fed so well ,
it is related to massive imports from a few countries to most of the rest
FAO Food Price Index | World Food Situation | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

famine has been eliminated , bar war or civil disturbance
any food deficit is related to distribution problems
 
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