If Afghanistan falls to the Taliban, is the West going to get a lot of Afghan refugees?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
13,494
SoCal
#1
I hope that I'm asking this question in the correct section of this forum. Anyway, if Afghanistan falls to the Taliban, do you think that the West is going to get much more Afghan refugees?

Also, if so, how do you think that the West will deal with this?
 
Apr 2017
710
U.S.A.
#2
Well, the Taliban had previously conquered Afghanistan and their wasn't a flood of refugees to Europe. However that was before the current trend of refugees migrating to Europe. There are afghans among the migrants moving into Europe already but if the Taliban reconquered Afghanistan then, yes their probably would be more refugees. If it would be significantly more than previously is hard to say, depends on the movements of other migrants. Pretty much if they see others making their way to the west then it would encourage more people to try.
 
Likes: Futurist

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
13,494
SoCal
#3
Well, the Taliban had previously conquered Afghanistan and their wasn't a flood of refugees to Europe. However that was before the current trend of refugees migrating to Europe. There are afghans among the migrants moving into Europe already but if the Taliban reconquered Afghanistan then, yes their probably would be more refugees. If it would be significantly more than previously is hard to say, depends on the movements of other migrants. Pretty much if they see others making their way to the west then it would encourage more people to try.
Makes sense.

BTW, do much more Afghans have mobile phones and the Internet now than they did in the late 1990s? I would think so, and this might very well be an additional motivating factor for Afghans to try moving to Europe. After all, Facebook photos of a friend or cousin of yours from Europe could really motivate someone to try going to Europe.
 
Apr 2017
710
U.S.A.
#4
Makes sense.

BTW, do much more Afghans have mobile phones and the Internet now than they did in the late 1990s? I would think so, and this might very well be an additional motivating factor for Afghans to try moving to Europe. After all, Facebook photos of a friend or cousin of yours from Europe could really motivate someone to try going to Europe.
Good point. There probably would be more attempting to migrate to Europe but it would depend on europes willingness to accept them. Afghans have more of a geographic barrier than others.
 
Likes: Futurist
May 2017
105
Monterrey
#5
I would imagine the Talibans would start a reign of terror on all those who cooperated with the western-backed governments, which would result in something of a flood.
 
Likes: Futurist
Jul 2016
7,353
USA
#6
The US will likely take some that have previously worked with ISAF forces and our govt who we have previously vetted, who will have sponsorship recommendations by American citizenship they know for refugee status.

Most won't. They wont even have the means to get to the US, nor get to a US consulate or embassy to attempt to claim refugee status or political asylum. Most will likely flee to neighboring countries or territories outside control of Taliban.

Afghanistan as a unified nation state is a joke, it always had been. It was just one of those countries that never should have been created in the first place. The various central govts over the years never managed to control anything outside the few population centers, they had no real ability to project power and dominance to the rural areas. The Taliban is strong in the rural areas, not so much in the urban (though they have a presence). When they eventually take over again, they'll have just as much problems as the current "rulers."

Then again, most of Afghanistan won't have to worry, the Taliban are only really popular in Pashtun dominated regions, just like previous to 2001, they will have little to no support in Uzbek territory, etc.
Even among the Pashtun, the Taliban are the top dog resistance because of their propaganda, because of cultural ties, and largely because of blatant inefficiency and corruption by the current central govt (who are seen further as enemies of Islam for partnering with the infidels). When ISAF eventually pulls out and the Taliban retake control over local govt, they'll be just as incompetent, corrupt, or more so, they'll also be bloodthirsty, so there will be an insurgency formed against them in the Pashtun dominated areas, and an outright coalition similar to the Northern Alliance that will be holding other areas.
 
Jul 2016
7,353
USA
#7
Makes sense.

BTW, do much more Afghans have mobile phones and the Internet now than they did in the late 1990s? I would think so, and this might very well be an additional motivating factor for Afghans to try moving to Europe. After all, Facebook photos of a friend or cousin of yours from Europe could really motivate someone to try going to Europe.
Probably the only good thing the ISAF occupation achieved was the cell network but its not very robust. Once the Taliban take over, say goodbye to that. Besides that, they'll shut down the opium network after they don't need the funding anymore, and a whole lot of very very rich and powerful tribes will not be happy with that decision.

Judging by how Europe has handled other "refugee" crisis, I'm sure they'll take the whole population if they wanted to come.
 
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heylouis

Ad Honorem
Apr 2013
6,209
China
#9
1. it won't fall to taliban
2. taliban will not end
3. the problem is not militarily defeat taliban, it is how to integrate it into afghan society.
many would argue it had been a long war for US in afghan. they should know, however, it is a longer war for afghan.
the taliban will not end, poverty always drive tribe members to seek new ways of life. taliban is one of their ways.
the US had taken military strike when afghan government were negotiating with taliban, that is really no good means for afghan.
4. once again, the problem is not to end taliban, but to end chaos of afghan, which drives for terrorism.
 
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