If Afghanistan falls to the Taliban, is the West going to get a lot of Afghan refugees?

AlpinLuke

Ad Honoris
Oct 2011
25,936
Italy, Lago Maggiore
#11
Italians are in Afghanistan since late 2011 [we went there with the Americans and we are still there ...]. The local perception of the Talibans is that they are a social / religious matter, they don't think to terrorists hearing the word "Taliban".

They can agree or not [and if Afghani guys don't agree they fight, like in Northern Afghanistan they have been fighting against Talibans], but it's not about something criminal or absurd ... That's Afghanistan.

Generally Afghani people is absolutely connected with its land and they tend not to become refugees abroad. And sure not in case of a religious internal domination.

Different matter would be if Pakistani fake Talibans would obtain the control of the country. It would mean a probable total tribal war.
 
Aug 2014
1,249
pakistan
#12
Then again, most of Afghanistan won't have to worry, the Taliban are only really popular in Pashtun dominated regions, just like previous to 2001, they will have little to no support in Uzbek territory, etc.
.
Actually this time situation is very different from 90s and Taliban have presence and influence all over Afghanistan. Now there are also many Tajik and Uzbek fighters in Taliban ranks. This map should make it clear for you ;

 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
18,070
SoCal
#13
Actually this time situation is very different from 90s and Taliban have presence and influence all over Afghanistan. Now there are also many Tajik and Uzbek fighters in Taliban ranks. This map should make it clear for you ;

Just how old is that statement of mine that you quoted? I might have made that statement back when I was somewhat less knowledgeable about the Taliban.
 
Aug 2014
951
United States of America
#14
Makes sense.

BTW, do much more Afghans have mobile phones and the Internet now than they did in the late 1990s? I would think so, and this might very well be an additional motivating factor for Afghans to try moving to Europe. After all, Facebook photos of a friend or cousin of yours from Europe could really motivate someone to try going to Europe.
Everyone, everywhere, has more mobile phone & internet access than 20+ years ago.
 
Likes: Futurist