If Austria-Hungary experiences a revolution (without WWI), how do the Great Powers partition it?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
14,371
SoCal
#1
If there is no World War I and Austria-Hungary nevertheless eventually experiences a revolution (not impossible due to the fact that I doubt that the Habsburgs would have been willing to transform their empire into a British-style constitutional monarchy), how would the Great Powers have partitioned Austria-Hungary afterwards?

My own thoughts are these:

-If Russia already experienced its own revolution by this point in time and Poland successfully broke away from Russia, then Poland would acquire western Galicia. Poland would also want eastern Galicia but Russia will not let Poland have this territory.
-Russia will acquire northern Bukovina, Subcarpathian Ruthenia, and eastern Galicia for sure and also western Galicia if there is no independent Polish state to acquire it.
-Romania will acquire all of the same Austro-Hungarian territories that it acquired in real life in 1918-1919 with the exception of northern Bukovina--which, as I already said above, will go to Russia.
-Germany will acquire the German-majority parts of Austria-Hungary and also Czechia. Germany might create an Austrian puppet state rather than directly annexing all of these territories since it would loathe to add a lot of additional Catholics to Germany.
-Italy and Serbia are going to be in conflict over who can acquire the most Adriatic territory. I suspect that whoever will get there first will secure their claim to the relevant territories--though there is a risk that this could lead to war between Italy and Serbia and possibly to a World War. Of course, Italy is guaranteed to acquire Trentino, Trieste, and probably Fiume as well, but beyond that, it's going to be a race between Italy and Serbia as to who can get there first--such as to Dalmatia and possibly the rest of Croatia as well.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
 
Apr 2017
776
U.S.A.
#2
Depends how the revolution goes down. Hungary might try to secede taking its half of the territory. Germany naturally taking Austria, czechia, Slovenia (which was just part of Austria back then), Istria (so it can have mediterranean access) and Trieste. Croatia, Istria and Bosnia would be claimed by Hungary and Serbia (maybe Italy too). Russia would take Galicia and maybe Bukovina.
 
Likes: sparticulous

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
14,371
SoCal
#3
Depends how the revolution goes down. Hungary might try to secede taking its half of the territory.
The problem for Hungary, though, is that Russia, Romania, and Serbia are all going to be greedily looking towards its territory.

Germany naturally taking Austria, czechia, Slovenia (which was just part of Austria back then), Istria (so it can have mediterranean access) and Trieste.
Italy would also want Slovenia, Istria, and Trieste, no?

Italy might be willing to do a deal where it allows Germany to have most of Slovenia and South Tyrol (but certainly not Trentino) in exchange for it being allowed to have Trieste, Istria, and Fiume.

Croatia, Istria and Bosnia would be claimed by Hungary and Serbia (maybe Italy too).
Yep.

Russia would take Galicia and maybe Bukovina.
Agreed about Galicia, but Bukovina is likely to be partitioned north-south between Russia and Romania. Also, Russia is certainly going to take Subcarpathian Ruthenia for itself.
 
Apr 2017
776
U.S.A.
#4
If Hungary played it smart, they would ally with Germany. This would allow them to keep their territory as an ally against Russia.
Since Germany was allied with Italy at the time, they may agree to cede some of the territory.
Carpathia-Ruthenia is geographically an extension of the Carpathian mountains, making it naturally a part of the Hungarian realm. Most of the population is Ukrainian but if Hungary allied with Germany that wouldn't matter.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
14,371
SoCal
#5
If Hungary played it smart, they would ally with Germany. This would allow them to keep their territory as an ally against Russia.
Since Germany was allied with Italy at the time, they may agree to cede some of the territory.
Carpathia-Ruthenia is geographically an extension of the Carpathian mountains, making it naturally a part of the Hungarian realm. Most of the population is Ukrainian but if Hungary allied with Germany that wouldn't matter.
Yes, I was also thinking of Hungary allying with Germany. Of course, Romania would be a huge problem since it would naturally want the Romanian-majority territories of Austria-Hungary. Might Germany try arbitrating between the two of them like it did in 1940 in real life?

Also, Yes, Germany is going to support Hungary's claim to Slovakia and Subcarpathian Ruthenia. (In addition to your point here, it is also worth noting that a Germany which is going to deny independence to the Czechs is not going to be very keen to see an independent Slovakia either.) In turn, this raises the question of whether Russia would actually be willing to go to war to liberate these territories from Hungarian rule.

Agreed that Germany might be willing to compromise with Italy in exchange for having Italy remain a German ally.
 
Likes: sparticulous
Apr 2017
776
U.S.A.
#6
Hungary at the time would probably be more powerful than Romania (as it would have access to the now collapsing Austrian army), an alliance with Germany would deter any except Russia. Hungary would never willingly give up Transylvania (even just part of it), they consider it an integral part of Hungary. Only threats by Germany or Russia (similar to what happened to Romania during ww2) would make them consider ceding part of it.
 

Edratman

Ad Honorem
Feb 2009
6,188
Eastern PA
#7
It would be almost certain that a revolution in Austria-Hungary would lead to WWI as Austria, Hungary, Germany, Italy , Russia and Turkey, along with the other constituencies within the empire jockeyed for land, power and wealth.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
14,371
SoCal
#8
Hungary at the time would probably be more powerful than Romania (as it would have access to the now collapsing Austrian army), an alliance with Germany would deter any except Russia. Hungary would never willingly give up Transylvania (even just part of it), they consider it an integral part of Hungary. Only threats by Germany or Russia (similar to what happened to Romania during ww2) would make them consider ceding part of it.
Well, if Germany is going to oppose a Romanian takeover of Transylvania, Romania might feel compelled to ally with Russia.

It would be almost certain that a revolution in Austria-Hungary would lead to WWI as Austria, Hungary, Germany, Italy , Russia and Turkey, along with the other constituencies within the empire jockeyed for land, power and wealth.
Very possibly. I mean, there would be a chance of deescalation and of the Great Powers finding some sort of compromise solution which everyone can tolerate, but I don't know if this outcome would be particularly likely.

Of course, I'd exclude the Ottomans from your list here since they were already almost completely kicked out of Europe in 1912-1913. The other Great Powers--as well as Serbia and Romania--are likely to be very interested in getting some Austro-Hungarian lands for themselves, though.
 
Likes: Edratman

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
14,371
SoCal
#9
If an alt-WWI is going to break out over this, I see these sides:

Central Powers: Germany, rump Austria?, Hungary, Italy, Bulgaria?, Albania?
Entente: France, Russia, Serbia, Montenegro, Romania, Poland (if already created by that point in time)

If this alt-WWI will break out after 1917 (which is very likely, IMHO), then Britain is unlikely to join the Entente side in this war. It would be an open question as to whether Britain would join the Central Powers in this war or remain neutral, though.

The rivalries between Hungary and Romania and Italy and Serbia are going to be likely to be especially risky as they would probably be the most likely to trigger a World War in this scenario.
 
Feb 2018
143
EU-Germany
#10
in this alt history event the revolters would prob secure istria(pola) and fiume(main port of the kingdom of hungary) for italy and dalmatia for serbia (if not an independent croatia) but if the germans are swift they could grab trieste(main port of the kingdom of austria) and than germany would gain valuable access to the med, leading to closer ties with the ottoman empire(trieste is indeed a main route for turkey) but a major potential for a conflict with britain the then dominant power in the med;