If Austria-Hungary experiences a revolution (without WWI), how do the Great Powers partition it?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
16,874
SoCal
#11
in this alt history event the revolters would prob secure istria(pola) and fiume(main port of the kingdom of hungary) for italy and dalmatia for serbia (if not an independent croatia) but if the germans are swift they could grab trieste(main port of the kingdom of austria) and than germany would gain valuable access to the med, leading to closer ties with the ottoman empire(trieste is indeed a main route for turkey) but a major potential for a conflict with britain the then dominant power in the med;
It wouldn't make much sense for Italy to have Fiume without Trieste due to the fact that controlling Trieste is necessary for Italy if it wants to have a land connection to Fiume. Also, grabbing Trieste might very well piss off Italy big time--and I am unsure that Germany actually wants that.

As for Dalmatia, Yes, Serbia could grab it first, but the question would be whether Italy would then be willing to go to war with Serbia over this.
 

Edratman

Ad Honorem
Feb 2009
6,470
Eastern PA
#12
Of course, I'd exclude the Ottomans from your list here since they were already almost completely kicked out of Europe in 1912-1913. The other Great Powers--as well as Serbia and Romania--are likely to be very interested in getting some Austro-Hungarian lands for themselves, though.
It just felt right to include the Ottoman's because they were still on the board, even though they were greatly diminished as an effective player. After all, a goodly portion of the contested territory was a part of the Ottoman Empire 50 years prior.
 
Dec 2011
4,572
Iowa USA
#13
It wouldn't make much sense for Italy to have Fiume without Trieste due to the fact that controlling Trieste is necessary for Italy if it wants to have a land connection to Fiume. Also, grabbing Trieste might very well piss off Italy big time--and I am unsure that Germany actually wants that.

As for Dalmatia, Yes, Serbia could grab it first, but the question would be whether Italy would then be willing to go to war with Serbia over this.
So your thinking was that this fracturing happens very shortly after the date of the actual passing of Franz Joseph?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
16,874
SoCal
#14
It just felt right to include the Ottoman's because they were still on the board, even though they were greatly diminished as an effective player. After all, a goodly portion of the contested territory was a part of the Ottoman Empire 50 years prior.
The problem for the Ottomans, though, is that they'd have to invade Bulgaria to get access to these territories. I certainly can't imagine the other Great Powers being OK with this.

So your thinking was that this fracturing happens very shortly after the date of the actual passing of Franz Joseph?
No; rather, it would occur at least a couple of decades after Franz Joseph's death. I don't think that Austria-Hungary was on the verge of revolution in the early 1910s. The only reason that a revolution occurred in Austria-Hungary in the 1910s was due to WWI. Without the war, I would expect the monarchy there to survive for at least an additional couple of decades.
 
Likes: Edratman
Dec 2011
4,572
Iowa USA
#15
[QUOTE="Futurist, post: 3109200, member: 28379"
No; rather, it would occur at least a couple of decades after Franz Joseph's death. I don't think that Austria-Hungary was on the verge of revolution in the early 1910s. The only reason that a revolution occurred in Austria-Hungary in the 1910s was due to WWI. Without the war, I would expect the monarchy there to survive for at least an additional couple of decades.[/QUOTE]

Rather than a "Great War", there was a more limited war, as in the case of 1870, between 1916 and the early 1930s?

Or, I guess I am asking, have France and Germany been at peace in these two decades?
 
Feb 2018
164
EU-Germany
#16
It wouldn't make much sense for Italy to have Fiume without Trieste due to the fact that controlling Trieste is necessary for Italy if it wants to have a land connection to Fiume. Also, grabbing Trieste might very well piss off Italy big time--and I am unsure that Germany actually wants that.

As for Dalmatia, Yes, Serbia could grab it first, but the question would be whether Italy would then be willing to go to war with Serbia over this.
well if italy would secure istria in the sense of the actual 'province of pola' plus what would be the 'province of fiume' then it would have not a direct land route but a land route over istria via quicker maritime routes; it is true whether or not germany would have wanted an expansion to the adriatic (economically and politically) so alt to this alt scenario imperial russia was indeed on an ever lasting quest of a 'warm port' so in a move of revolution and panslavism(a reason russia declared war on A-H in 1915) imperial russia somehow ends up getting trieste, in either case (ger/rus) it would pose a massive power change in the region; italy going to war over dalmatia i think unlikely as it would mostly concern zara/zadar over istria and fiume more likely;
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
16,874
SoCal
#17
[QUOTE="Futurist, post: 3109200, member: 28379"
No; rather, it would occur at least a couple of decades after Franz Joseph's death. I don't think that Austria-Hungary was on the verge of revolution in the early 1910s. The only reason that a revolution occurred in Austria-Hungary in the 1910s was due to WWI. Without the war, I would expect the monarchy there to survive for at least an additional couple of decades.
Rather than a "Great War", there was a more limited war, as in the case of 1870, between 1916 and the early 1930s?

Or, I guess I am asking, have France and Germany been at peace in these two decades?[/QUOTE]
Yes, France and Germany have been at peace in these two decades.

I don't know if there would have been any limited wars between 1916 and the 1930s or 1940s in this TL. I mean, it's possible, but a limited war has the potential to escalate into a Great War and I don't want a Great War occurring yet. What is very plausible is a quick Austro-Hungarian civil war in 1916-1917 where Austria and Germany crush Hungary after Hungary refuses to renew the Ausgleich with Austria. In such a war, if Britain declares its neutrality, Russia might be unwilling to intervene to help the Hungarians out.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
16,874
SoCal
#18
well if italy would secure istria in the sense of the actual 'province of pola' plus what would be the 'province of fiume' then it would have not a direct land route but a land route over istria via quicker maritime routes; it is true whether or not germany would have wanted an expansion to the adriatic (economically and politically) so alt to this alt scenario imperial russia was indeed on an ever lasting quest of a 'warm port' so in a move of revolution and panslavism(a reason russia declared war on A-H in 1915) imperial russia somehow ends up getting trieste, in either case (ger/rus) it would pose a massive power change in the region; italy going to war over dalmatia i think unlikely as it would mostly concern zara/zadar over istria and fiume more likely;
Trieste is too far away for Russia to get it. Russia's ally Serbia could want it, but Italy is likely to get there first.

Also, while Italy could commute with Istria by sea, the same was also true for Germany and East Prussia in the Weimar era and yet a lot of Germans still strongly resented the Polish Corridor.
 
Dec 2011
4,572
Iowa USA
#19
Yes, France and Germany have been at peace in these two decades.

I don't know if there would have been any limited wars between 1916 and the 1930s or 1940s in this TL. I mean, it's possible, but a limited war has the potential to escalate into a Great War and I don't want a Great War occurring yet. What is very plausible is a quick Austro-Hungarian civil war in 1916-1917 where Austria and Germany crush Hungary after Hungary refuses to renew the Ausgleich with Austria. In such a war, if Britain declares its neutrality, Russia might be unwilling to intervene to help the Hungarians out.
If Germany has progressed to be more German and less "Prussian" over this long a time, it seems possible that the English and German factions could arrange a Congress of Berlin, The Sequel such that war doesn't result.

Italy will argue a maximum position but if England and Germany determine that war is too costly (inverse of the 1911-1914 period) Italy should be glad with the outcome of the Congress. Nicholas would be in his late sixties or early seventies in this time frame if there is still a government in Russia resembling 1914. I think the older Nicholas would not be a friend to the British, so England would probably need Germany to help broker this situation.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
16,874
SoCal
#20
If Germany has progressed to be more German and less "Prussian" over this long a time, it seems possible that the English and German factions could arrange a Congress of Berlin, The Sequel such that war doesn't result.
Agreed. I suspect that Anglo-German relations could significantly improve after 1917 just as long as Kaiser Bill doesn't do anything else stupid.

Italy will argue a maximum position but if England and Germany determine that war is too costly (inverse of the 1911-1914 period) Italy should be glad with the outcome of the Congress.
Agreed.

Nicholas would be in his late sixties or early seventies in this time frame if there is still a government in Russia resembling 1914. I think the older Nicholas would not be a friend to the British, so England would probably need Germany to help broker this situation.
Agreed. Also, IMHO, it's possible that Russia will experience a revolution before A-H does--though it's obviously very hard to tell for sure. Still, I wouldn't expect the position of Russia in such a scenario to be much different regardless of whether the Tsar or moderate socialists are in charge of Russia. The only major difference is likely to be that, in the latter scenario, there's already going to be an independent Poland--one that is likely going to want some A-H spoils for itself.

Also, another factor to consider here--if Franz Ferdinand lives in this TL, how does he restructure the Empire after he defeats a Hungarian rebellion at the start of his reign? One solution would be to implement universal suffrage in Hungary--something that could generate a lot of resentment among Hungarians since they only made up around half of Hungary's total population. Count Czernin wrote in his post-WWI (1919) memoirs that while he was still alive, FF didn't yet have a solid plan as to how to reform the Empire that he was set on inheriting. Thus, various proposals appear to have been on the table.

Anyway, though, if Hungary would already have universal suffrage for a couple of decades or more (of course, with the real power being in Franz Ferdinand's hands), then the Hungarians might not be that keen on keeping all of Hungary's pre-revolution territory once A-H experiences a revolution. After all, the Hungarians might prefer a smaller but more ethnically homogeneous state.