If Austria-Hungary quickly falls during WWI, does Germany make peace shortly afterwards?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
20,222
SoCal
#1
If Austria-Hungary somehow quickly falls during WWI (either during real life's WWI or during an alternate WWI if WWI occurs later in this scenario), does Germany make peace shortly afterwards? Also, would it have made a difference whether or not Vienna would have been successfully conquered by the Entente?
 

Larrey

Ad Honorem
Sep 2011
5,583
#2
How would the Entente make it to Vienna? If A-H Hungary falls, the overwhelming probability is that it falls to Russia.

I think that would be game-over for Germany though.

For all the bad-mouthing A-H might have gotten, including from the Germans, they held for a very long and bloody war, with a very substantial army (peaked close to 8 million iirc), tying very substantial Russian forces, and the Italians on top. If they don't do that, Germany would fairly quickly be in trouble.
 

Larrey

Ad Honorem
Sep 2011
5,583
#4
It's a what-if. Pretty much anything can be assumed. The tricky bit here is of course coming up with a semi-realistic scenario for HOW A-H folds quickly?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
20,222
SoCal
#5
It's a what-if. Pretty much anything can be assumed. The tricky bit here is of course coming up with a semi-realistic scenario for HOW A-H folds quickly?
Have WWI be delayed until 1917 (due to FF surviving instead of being killed at Sarajevo in 1914) and then when the Hungarians refuse to renew their union with Austria, Russia and its allies (Serbia, Romania, France, and Italy) militarily intervene on Hungary's behalf. In such a scenario, Germany and Austria would have had to simultaneously fight five countries (Russia, Serbia, Romania, France, and Italy) and would have also had to deal with a Russian military that has just completed its Great Military Program.
 
Feb 2011
1,070
Scotland
#6
How about if Franz Josef dies very soon after Franz Ferdinand. Even as it tries to mobilize, AH splits into conflicting minorities unwilling to fight, or preferring to fight AH or each other. In the chaos, Russian forces drive deep into Austria and a provisional government surrenders.

Given that the majority of German forces are embroiled in the West long term, Germany will be forced to concede defeat in the face of the Russian presence around it.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
20,222
SoCal
#7
How about if Franz Josef dies very soon after Franz Ferdinand. Even as it tries to mobilize, AH splits into conflicting minorities unwilling to fight, or preferring to fight AH or each other. In the chaos, Russian forces drive deep into Austria and a provisional government surrenders.

Given that the majority of German forces are embroiled in the West long term, Germany will be forced to concede defeat in the face of the Russian presence around it.
Yes, that's also possible--though I do like my own scenario right above better. :)
 
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Futurist

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May 2014
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SoCal
#9
I somehow doubt Serbia would be willing to fight on the behalf of the Hungarians.
They could get Bosnia and maybe Dalmatia in exchange for doing this, though. Bosnia for sure and Dalmatia depending on whether the Franco-Russians are going to put greater value on Serbia's claim or on Italy's claim.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
20,222
SoCal
#10
Basically, these are the incentives for everyone in this fight:

-Russia: Galicia and maybe northern Bukovina
-Romania: Either all of Bukovina or at the very least southern Bukovina
-France: Alsace-Lorraine
-Serbia: Bosnia and maybe Dalmatia
-Italy: Trentino, Trieste, Istria, and maybe South Tyrol

Of course, if the Franco-Russian side and their allies will actually win this alt-WWI, then Russia, Romania, Serbia, and Italy might subsequently gang up on Hungary in an attempt to force it to make territorial concessions to these countries as the payment for their help in acquiring Hungarian independence. This would be especially true if the Hungarians will refuse to become Russian vassals after acquiring their independence. (Indeed, threatening Hungary with the loss of territory could actually be a good way for Russia to try keeping Hungary in line after it acquires independence.)
 
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