If Franz Ferdinand was assassinated by Serbian ultranationalists five or eight years earlier, would it have still triggered a World War?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,020
SoCal
#1
Had Franz Ferdinand (somehow) been assassinated by Serbian ultranationalists five or eight years earlier than he was in real life (so, in 1909 or 1906), would this assassination have still triggered a World War? In other words, would A-H have still given an unacceptable ultimatum to Serbia after getting a blank check from Germany, which in turn would have been followed by Serbian rejection of this ultimatum, A-H declaring war on Serbia, Russia declaring war on A-H, Germany declaring war on both Russia and France, and Germany invading Belgium--thus causing Britain to enter the war on the Franco-Russian side?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,020
SoCal
#2
I'm asking this question because AFAIK Russia was weaker (perhaps significantly weaker) five and especially eight years before 1914. Thus, I am wondering if Russia would have still been willing to risk a World War in 1906 or 1909 or whether it would have thrown Serbia under the bus in this scenario--perhaps in the spirit of humiliatingly backing down similar to what Russia did during the Bosnian Crisis of 1908-1909.
 

Maki

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
3,391
Republika Srpska
#3
Not in 1906. A-H was still trying to use pro-Austrian elements in Serbia to turn Serbia's foreign policy into one favourable to Austria.
 
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Maki

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
3,391
Republika Srpska
#5
I mean, possibly. Russia did back down during the Bosnian Crisis, but that was really Austria-Hungary simply solidifying what was the situation on the ground (they controlled Bosnia since 1878), attacking another country was an entirely different matter. As I already said, Serbian government didn't really push the Bosnian question that far.
 
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Kotromanic

Ad Honorem
Dec 2011
4,865
Iowa USA
#7
Neither '06 or '09 leads to the general European war. No way. Even in '14 the Russian generals had a mixed opinion, but in either of those years given the recovery from the events of 1905, Russia would have to back down.

By the way in either of those years, Franz Joseph was more in more robust health so the heir might have a different calculation on the benefits of going to Bosnia for a public rallying of support? I imagine that one of the reasons he went there for St. Vitus' day of 1914 was to demonstrate his personal courage, or charisma, to the Hungarians in the government which he was expecting to reign over within two years.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,020
SoCal
#9
Neither '06 or '09 leads to the general European war. No way. Even in '14 the Russian generals had a mixed opinion, but in either of those years given the recovery from the events of 1905, Russia would have to back down.

By the way in either of those years, Franz Joseph was more in more robust health so the heir might have a different calculation on the benefits of going to Bosnia for a public rallying of support? I imagine that one of the reasons he went there for St. Vitus' day of 1914 was to demonstrate his personal courage, or charisma, to the Hungarians in the government which he was expecting to reign over within two years.
FF doesn't have to be assassinated in Bosnia. He could be assassinated elsewhere within the Empire.
 

Kotromanic

Ad Honorem
Dec 2011
4,865
Iowa USA
#10
FF doesn't have to be assassinated in Bosnia. He could be assassinated elsewhere within the Empire.
Not by Apis he couldn't. It took a lot of "good" fortune for the job to be finished. Besides the fact that the shot which killed Sophie was meant for Potiorek, that is. (Source: Princip testimony)
 
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