- Jan 2015
- Front Lines of the Pig War
What discounts that they may have been building for an invasion of their own in 1941-42 is basic proof. There are measures taken, staging, training, shifting of units, orders given, all of which indicate an offensive is planned, even if subordinate unit commanders aren't specifically told. None of this happened. There is absolutely no real proof the Soviets were actively prepping for an invasion of German territory. Were they eventually planning on fighting to the Germans, to include invading them? Absolutely, look at the increase in size of the Red Army from 1940-41 alone, it massively increased in size while they weren't at war, just for preparation. But they weren't planning any operation yet, Stalin's confusion in the lead days were proof that he mentally did not picture the war starting so soon. There was a political plan for the Soviets to attack Germany in 1939, but the UK and French wouldn't agree to ally with the USSR and pre-emptively attack Germany, so in desperation Stalin had Molotov reach out the Germans for a non-aggression agreement that would give them a few years to build their forces. But while there was a political plan, there was no military version, no legitimate actual written plan that told of which forces would be involved, when, where, how, etc. And once the non-aggression treaty was in force there doesn't seem to be any proof that Stalin was enacted any similar type of plan.
In any event, we are drifting away from the thread's original question.
If the Germans didn't attack East in 1941, they would still probably need to have at least 50 or 60 divisions deployed in Poland to garrison the frontier