If Hitler and the Nazis never come to power in Germany, does Poland keep its 1937 borders up to the present-day?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
If Hitler and the Nazis never come to power in Germany, does Poland keep its 1937 borders up to the present-day?

I know that the Weimar German government waged an unsuccessful years-long trade war (ironically ended by Hitler with the 1934 Polish-German Non-Aggression Pact) against Poland (see here: German–Polish customs war - Wikipedia ) in an attempt to bully Poland to agree to allow Germany to reacquire both Danzig and the Polish Corridor (and *maybe* Polish Upper Silesia as well). Without Hitler and the Nazis, this trade war might very well continue for a longer time period--perhaps a much longer time period. That said, though, I don't see it being any more successful than it was in real life--and it wasn't very successful in real life. Poland would presumably still feel that once it would compromise on its German border, neighboring countries such as the Soviet Union and Lithuania could press their own claims to Polish territory as well--thus leaving Poland as a landlocked and greatly shrunken rump state.

In turn, though, this raises an interesting question--once Germany's government (which will be non-Nazi in this scenario--either a surviving democratic Weimar German government if Wilhelm Marx will win in 1925 and win reelection in 1932 or an authoritarian but non-Nazi right-wing German government if events will go the same way as in real life until the start of 1933) will realize that economic warfare is not going to be enough to get Poland to agree to territorial revision, might it become more open to the idea of a military solution to its territorial conflict with Poland? I mean, a non-Nazi Germany would have in all likelihood absolutely loathed the idea of going to war against Britain and France (this would have been especially true for a German government that remains democratic but would have also been true for a non-Nazi authoritarian right-wing German government). At the same time, though, might Germany want to wait until a point in time (if such a point in time will ever actually come, that is) where Britain and/or France are distracted (for instance, by some colonial conflict--such as one over Indochina and/or Algeria) and thus might be disinclined to militarily intervene if Germany will attempt to militarily conquer Danzig and the Polish Corridor? Of course, even this approach would require some degree of German brinkmanship--albeit much less than the amount of brinkmanship that Hitler had in real life. In addition, there would also be the question of whether Germany would want to have Lithuania and especially the giant Soviet Union as "partners in crime" in regards to attacking Poland at a convenient time or whether Germany--if it would have ever actually decided to attack Poland, that is--would have preferred to attack Poland by itself and then to offer to protect Poland from Lithuanian and especially Soviet revanchism if Poland will agree to its new western border with Germany.

Anyway, any thoughts on all of this?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
@Chlodio @Edratman @AlpinLuke My computer froze and thus I accidentally created three copies of the exact same thread. Could you please delete two of these thread copies (the ones with the smallest amount of views)? Thank you!
 

stevev

Ad Honorem
Apr 2017
3,734
Las Vegas, NV USA
Poland keeps its borders and Adolf opens a donut shop in Los Angeles after he marries Greta Garbo. She never really wanted to be alone and he liked sweets.
 
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MAGolding

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Aug 2015
3,025
Chalfont, Pennsylvania
I have to point out that that Stalin forced a rapid industrialization of the USSR in the 1930s, no doubt in order to increase its military capabilities.

Many people believe that Stalin was preparing for war with Germany in 1941 but Hitler invaded first. If that belief is correct, then in this alternate universe Stalin would likely have invaded a number of European countries in the 1940s. Poland shared a border with the USSR and would probably have been oneo fthe countries invaded by the USSR during the 1940s.

So if the Nazis never took power in Germany, Poland would still have a very powerful and aggressive neighboring state in the USSR which probably would have invaded Poland and changed the borders.
 

stevev

Ad Honorem
Apr 2017
3,734
Las Vegas, NV USA
I have to point out that that Stalin forced a rapid industrialization of the USSR in the 1930s, no doubt in order to increase its military capabilities.
Russia cast a shadow over Europe since Peter I (The Great). However, they only operated militarily in conjunction with other European powers on European soil. In the late 1930s Stalin purged his military and was in no shape to wage offensive war. In 1919 Poland stopped a Soviet Russian invasion aimed at Germany. Rumors that Russia was about to invade Europe in 1941 probably came from German sources. In any case, the performance of the Russians defending their own soil in 1941 was not impressive. They were saved by General Winter (which they acknowledged).
 
Last edited:
Dec 2017
320
Regnum Teutonicum
I think if the Nazis never came to power in Germany, the chance for Poland to keep its 1937 borders would be about 1/3rd. It would be possible, if one or several of the following criteria had happened:
1) In both countries very unique, able and charismatic politicians are in power which are able to negotiate the border
2) Both are forced into each others arms by a common enemy (cough Soviets cough)
3) Communists, Fascists or Bonapartists gain power in France and establish a dictatorship - Germany doesn't want to be squeezed between two hostile powers and so it is much wiser to keep a friendly Poland between itself and one of the hostile powers
4) Poland has so much internal trouble and no other great power allies, so it has to tie its fate to Germany, so it doesn't fall into the Soviet Unions lap
5) Germany has an incredible economic growth, and surrounding countries, slowly build up ties and all profit by peacefull trade

Another 3rd: Poland gains territory. This would be most likely in the East or maybe in the south from Czechoslovakia.

Th last 3rd: Poland loses territory to Germany. There are also different options. The most likely is, that Germany would simply buy back parts of its former territory from Poland, like it did post WW2 with Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. Another option would be, if the Wonder of the Vistula in the Polish-Soviet War doesn't happen and after overrunning Poland, the SU would invade Germany to start a communist revolution. In this case Germany would retake the lost territory (Silesia, West Prussia and Posen) from the SU and create a Poland as buffer between itself and the SU. Depending how early the peace and how big the victory would be (and if maybe some of the Entente powers would help to stop the spread of communism), would decide the size of Poland. It could be a small Poland with only the states bordering Germany (Mazovia, Greater Poland, Lesser Poland and Podlachia) or a very large Poland.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
Poland keeps its borders and Adolf opens a donut shop in Los Angeles after he marries Greta Garbo. She never really wanted to be alone and he liked sweets.
Adolf is going to make it into the US in this scenario?

I have to point out that that Stalin forced a rapid industrialization of the USSR in the 1930s, no doubt in order to increase its military capabilities.

Many people believe that Stalin was preparing for war with Germany in 1941 but Hitler invaded first. If that belief is correct, then in this alternate universe Stalin would likely have invaded a number of European countries in the 1940s. Poland shared a border with the USSR and would probably have been oneo fthe countries invaded by the USSR during the 1940s.

So if the Nazis never took power in Germany, Poland would still have a very powerful and aggressive neighboring state in the USSR which probably would have invaded Poland and changed the borders.
In order for the USSR to act, though, the USSR would first need Germany's approval. Else, a broad Anglo-Franco-Germano-Polish coalition could be formed against the USSR.