- Oct 2015
- 1,138
- India
Old paradigm on nukes must change somewhat.
Nukes are not really effective and even in their presence on both sides conventional war can go on. There are three examples.
First was in 1999 when Pakistan occupied Kargil Hill some 10 kms inside Indian territory during winter months when both side traditionally evacuated from the ice-cold area. Pakistan calculated (General Musaraf was the Army head in Pakistan) that since Pakistan is a nuclear state, India would gulp it. Quite to the contrary, India launched a full-scale Army & Air attack and evicted them. Pakistan, on verge of defeat - having no face left - sent Nawaz Sharif the Prime Minister to USA un-invited in a commercial flight to tell Clinton that Pakistan had nukes hoping US may get worked-up and try to halt Indian attack. But he got no response from Clinton. So nuke detente did not work.
Second, now also, Pakistan Army is carrying out a low-intensity war in Jhelum Valley (five districts of Kashmir). Methods are copy-pasted from Afghanistan. Send terrorists, train locals, supply arms & ammo, use Islam and preaching thru mosques to alienate local population, kill politicians standing in elections or trying to vote, kill students going to schools (so that they go to Madrasas and get indoctrinated & get no employable skills), kill journalists who talk of negotiations. Pakistan's stated intention is to create limited mischief, only so much that India does not launch a full-scale attack on Pakistan. So India possessing nuclear weapons is not really stopping them.
Third, even more important than the above are the example of US and North Korea. Neither could have bombed the other. President Trump was forced to announce development of "small" nuclear bombs which could damage without affecting neighbours like Japan and China. North Korea, of course, blinked as the head there realized it is better to have a kingdom 'guaranteed for his life' and enjoy it than to fight. Afterall he getting old.
So nukes do not prevent a conventional war. And hardly anyone can use it on others. May be, they are just expensive toys.
Nukes are not really effective and even in their presence on both sides conventional war can go on. There are three examples.
First was in 1999 when Pakistan occupied Kargil Hill some 10 kms inside Indian territory during winter months when both side traditionally evacuated from the ice-cold area. Pakistan calculated (General Musaraf was the Army head in Pakistan) that since Pakistan is a nuclear state, India would gulp it. Quite to the contrary, India launched a full-scale Army & Air attack and evicted them. Pakistan, on verge of defeat - having no face left - sent Nawaz Sharif the Prime Minister to USA un-invited in a commercial flight to tell Clinton that Pakistan had nukes hoping US may get worked-up and try to halt Indian attack. But he got no response from Clinton. So nuke detente did not work.
Second, now also, Pakistan Army is carrying out a low-intensity war in Jhelum Valley (five districts of Kashmir). Methods are copy-pasted from Afghanistan. Send terrorists, train locals, supply arms & ammo, use Islam and preaching thru mosques to alienate local population, kill politicians standing in elections or trying to vote, kill students going to schools (so that they go to Madrasas and get indoctrinated & get no employable skills), kill journalists who talk of negotiations. Pakistan's stated intention is to create limited mischief, only so much that India does not launch a full-scale attack on Pakistan. So India possessing nuclear weapons is not really stopping them.
Third, even more important than the above are the example of US and North Korea. Neither could have bombed the other. President Trump was forced to announce development of "small" nuclear bombs which could damage without affecting neighbours like Japan and China. North Korea, of course, blinked as the head there realized it is better to have a kingdom 'guaranteed for his life' and enjoy it than to fight. Afterall he getting old.
So nukes do not prevent a conventional war. And hardly anyone can use it on others. May be, they are just expensive toys.