If Japan did not invade China in 1930s

Feb 2018
227
Manila
Do you think the Chinese Communists can win the Chinese civil war if Japan did not invade?

It is said that Chinese Communists won because the KMT was weaken by the latter’s war with Japanese troops.
 

Chlodio

Forum Staff
Aug 2016
4,461
Dispargum
It's hard to defend the KMT because they were so corrupt. Emotionally, I'd like to see almost anyone else take over China. That said, the Communists also had problems, for example the excesses of the Great Leap Forward and of the Cultural Revolution.


The thing about Communist insurgencies is that they hardly ever end short of victory. Even if Mao hadn't triumphed in the 1940s, he would have continued his revolution into the '50s, the '60s, - however long it took to conquer the entire country (or at least the mainland).


A more interesting counter-factual is whether or not there would have even been a Pacific War without a Japanese invasion of China. It was US anger over Japanese behavior in China that provoked economic sanctions which in turn provoked Pearl Harbor. Or if Japan had never invaded China, would they have used their army to instead attack the Soviet Union in 1941?
 

zincwarrior

Ad Honorem
Jun 2012
5,711
Texas
It's hard to defend the KMT because they were so corrupt. Emotionally, I'd like to see almost anyone else take over China. That said, the Communists also had problems, for example the excesses of the Great Leap Forward and of the Cultural Revolution.


The thing about Communist insurgencies is that they hardly ever end short of victory. Even if Mao hadn't triumphed in the 1940s, he would have continued his revolution into the '50s, the '60s, - however long it took to conquer the entire country (or at least the mainland).


A more interesting counter-factual is whether or not there would have even been a Pacific War without a Japanese invasion of China. It was US anger over Japanese behavior in China that provoked economic sanctions which in turn provoked Pearl Harbor. Or if Japan had never invaded China, would they have used their army to instead attack the Soviet Union in 1941?
Alternatively, what if Japan started provided military aid to the KMT or other noncommunist groups?