If Kazakhstan becomes a democracy in 1991, does it quickly rejoin Russia?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
This is sort of a random question, but since Kazakhstan is one of my favorite countries in that part of the world, I figured that I should ask it: If Kazakhstan becomes a democracy in 1991, does it quickly rejoin Russia?

This question is interesting because in 1989, Europeans (overwhelmingly Eastern Slavs, but with a few Germans and Poles as well) made up about one-half of the total Kazakh population:


Thus, I was wondering if, in the event that Kazakhstan would have somehow become a democracy immediately after independence in 1991, these Europeans combined with pro-Russian Kazakhs could have used their brief window of opportunity (the demographic trends were in favor of Kazakhs even in the late Soviet era) to successfully push through a reunification of Kazakhstan with Russia before they would have (probably inevitably) lost their majority in the Kazakh parliament to pro-independence Kazakhs.

Anyway, what are your own thoughts on this and what effects do you think that such a move would have had?
 
Apr 2017
1,737
U.S.A.
Doubtful, the independence movement wouldn't have got that far if the pro-Russian feelings were that strong. And if it did they would descend into civil war.
Welcome back by the way.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
Doubtful, the independence movement wouldn't have got that far if the pro-Russian feelings were that strong. And if it did they would descend into civil war.
AFAIK, though, the Central Asian SSRs only reluctantly acquired their independence in 1991. They actually wanted a new Union Treaty but Ukraine said No and without Ukraine Russia likewise said No.

To my knowledge, the Central Asian SSRs never actually held independence referendums like Ukraine did. I could be mistaken, though.

Welcome back by the way.
Thank you very much, VP! :) Honestly, I've learned that it's probably best for me to completely shut up about topics such as evolution when I am on this forum. After all, it's really, really not worth getting suspended and/or banned over. :(