If Napoleon won at Waterloo and lost the war later on, what does the peace look like?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,239
SoCal
If Napoleon would have won at Waterloo and lost the war later on (for instance, by decisively losing to the Austrian and Russian armies which were apparently on their way to France), what does the post-war peace look like?

Specifically, I want to know how much more severely France is going to be punished in this scenario and whether the post-war borders of Europe are going to be any different in this scenario than they were in 1815 in real life.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
 

paranoid marvin

Ad Honorem
Aug 2015
2,359
uk
Napoleon only wins at Waterloo if the Prussians don't arrive in time. Even then victory leaves his troops substantially weakened after a hard fought victory against the British. My guess is that Blucher catches him up the following day and finishes him off. Perhaps Britain gets less of the glory and Napoleon may well come to a sticky end (executed rather than exiled) but overall the scenario plays out similarly to how it did.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,239
SoCal
Napoleon only wins at Waterloo if the Prussians don't arrive in time. Even then victory leaves his troops substantially weakened after a hard fought victory against the British. My guess is that Blucher catches him up the following day and finishes him off. Perhaps Britain gets less of the glory and Napoleon may well come to a sticky end (executed rather than exiled) but overall the scenario plays out similarly to how it did.
Was Blucher capable of defeating Napoleon without the help of the British?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,239
SoCal
Also, Yes, I was thinking of having Napoleon defeat the British before Blucher arrived at Waterloo.
 

paranoid marvin

Ad Honorem
Aug 2015
2,359
uk
Was Blucher capable of defeating Napoleon without the help of the British?

What state would the French army be in the day after they had spent fighting Wellington's army for half a day? This is only a couple of days after Ligny and Quatre Bras. Having Blucher steaming into their rear could have been the final straw; it certainly was at Waterloo. Of course the result would depend on what Grouchy ended up doing; if he was able to catch the Prussians as they were attacking Napoleon's forces it would be game over for Blucher and an utter decimation of his forces.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,239
SoCal
What state would the French army be in the day after they had spent fighting Wellington's army for half a day? This is only a couple of days after Ligny and Quatre Bras. Having Blucher steaming into their rear could have been the final straw; it certainly was at Waterloo. Of course the result would depend on what Grouchy ended up doing; if he was able to catch the Prussians as they were attacking Napoleon's forces it would be game over for Blucher and an utter decimation of his forces.
So, what happens after Grouchy attacks and annihilates the Prussian forces?
 

stevev

Ad Honorem
Apr 2017
3,558
Las Vegas, NV USA
So, what happens after Grouchy attacks and annihilates the Prussian forces?
In the actual battle , I believe Wellington was positioned to make a tactical withdrawal and concede the field if Blucher didn't arrive. Assuming that happened, I don't know his strength versus Napoleon but he might have gotten re enforcements from England. With Blucher out of action, a final battle between Boney and the Duke would decide everything. I don't see Wellington evacuating the Continent.

If Wellington wins, Napoleon is exiled to South Georgia Island (in the Antarctic) or hanged and France cedes Normandy back to the UK.
 
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Apr 2018
291
Italy
Napoleon wouldn't resist too much against 400000 Austrian and Russian, even if at Waterloo he won against Wellington and Grouchy had held back Blucher not allowing he to help Wellington. His army wastired andlost hight, and France human resources were exhausted after 23 years of wars and mobilitations. I think that at most Napoleon would have been defeated in september or october. I don't think also that France would have been punished too much to not alter the balance of powers. At most would have lost some territory in Alsace or Lorraine.
 

paranoid marvin

Ad Honorem
Aug 2015
2,359
uk
I agree that Wellington had contingency plans to withdraw if Napoleon looked like he would win the day. He'd chosen the battleground, and he wouldn't choose one that would trap his troops to slaughter.

If Grouchy meets up to protect Napoleon's rear, they march on unopposed to Brussels. Wellington will make sure that NEXT time Napoleon will not split his and Blucher's forces.

But I expect that in such circumstances Wellington and Blucher close up on his rear and the Russains are next to attack. Napoleon really had no chance; the British wouldn't give up, neither would the Prussians or the Tsar - and back in Paris, his political opponents were ready to stick the knife in.
 
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