If Napoleon won at Waterloo and lost the war later on, what does the peace look like?

Aug 2015
2,323
uk
#11
Ive tried on several occasions to think of how Napoleon could win, but it just doesn't happen if he stays in Paris and fortifies towns and cities, he'll be sieged and starved until he surrenders. If he defeats Wellington and Blucher, he has Rusdian and Austrian armies to face - then reinforced British and Prussian armies, then more Russian and Austrians etc etc. He had to make an alliance, but no-one would trust or believe him, no-one feared him (more likely they feared reprisals from the other allied nations if they did), he had no bargaining chips; and each of the opposing kings had a vested interest in seeing France once again return to a monarchy.

The only other thing was to beat the other country's initial armies, sieze Brussels and try to make a peace deal in the hope that the allies would not fully appreciate his actual weakness. But that was never going to happen.

The only thing that does surprise me to an extent was that he did not fall on his sword and stand amongst his Guard for the final slaughter.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
13,806
SoCal
#12
In the actual battle , I believe Wellington was positioned to make a tactical withdrawal and concede the field if Blucher didn't arrive. Assuming that happened, I don't know his strength versus Napoleon but he might have gotten re enforcements from England. With Blucher out of action, a final battle between Boney and the Duke would decide everything. I don't see Wellington evacuating the Continent.

If Wellington wins, Napoleon is exiled to South Georgia Island (in the Antarctic) or hanged and France cedes Normandy back to the UK.
Normandy wasn't English for centuries, though.
 

stevev

Ad Honorem
Apr 2017
2,668
Las Vegas, NV USA
#13
Normandy wasn't English for centuries, though.
It doesn't matter. Britain financed much of the allied effort and considered this to be an existential struggle. Boney coming back and losing is bad enough . That's St Helena and giving up the Rhineland and (initially) the United Netherlands. Coming back and forcing the extra battle is over the top! Boney should enjoy living with the penguins be glad he avoided the noose. (We don't want him to be a martyr). Then he can think about England owning an historic piece of France while he shivers in South Georgia.:freeze:

 
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Aug 2015
391
beijing
#14
If Napoleon defeats wellington at waterloo because the prussians dont' show up, and then defeats the prussians in the next couple of days his army will be tired but will have time to rest. Their spirits will be lifted by knocking out the two junior members of this current coalition and they will prepare to fight the russians and austrians who now will be having doubts because all of a sudden the odds are a bit closer and they are further from their base. if they do meet up and have one last titanic struggle where the russians and austrians win it would really depend on how they win. i expect that this would be the last straw for prussia and the rest of europe will not look at them as a major power anymore. britain will have much less say in any final peace and looked at as merely financiers. So it would all come down to the emperor and tsar. the tsar doesn't really have any reason to be vindictive and help out the brits, france makes a nice counterbalance to them and the rest of the western powers. Austria is a little trickier because Napoleon is family. all of this assumes France's defeat was somewhat decisive. i personally think that if Napoleon knocks the brits and prussians out, France would be able to wear down and beat the russians and austrians
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
13,806
SoCal
#15
If Napoleon defeats wellington at waterloo because the prussians dont' show up, and then defeats the prussians in the next couple of days his army will be tired but will have time to rest. Their spirits will be lifted by knocking out the two junior members of this current coalition and they will prepare to fight the russians and austrians who now will be having doubts because all of a sudden the odds are a bit closer and they are further from their base. if they do meet up and have one last titanic struggle where the russians and austrians win it would really depend on how they win. i expect that this would be the last straw for prussia and the rest of europe will not look at them as a major power anymore. britain will have much less say in any final peace and looked at as merely financiers. So it would all come down to the emperor and tsar. the tsar doesn't really have any reason to be vindictive and help out the brits, france makes a nice counterbalance to them and the rest of the western powers. Austria is a little trickier because Napoleon is family. all of this assumes France's defeat was somewhat decisive. i personally think that if Napoleon knocks the brits and prussians out, France would be able to wear down and beat the russians and austrians
If the Austrians and Russians are torn down, what kind of peace does Napoleon get?
 
May 2017
619
France
#16
If Napoleon would have won at Waterloo,he would have lost in august or september for three reasons:
1) He refuses to restablish the conscription which was totally impopular since 1810.
2) The losses of june 1815 were enormous,40 000 men,33% of the army of the north.And in Strasbourg,Rapp had only 30 000 men.
3) With an army of 110 000 men he couldn t stop the austrian and russian armies which were arriving by the east (400 000 men) the second prussian army with the ex confederation of the Rhin (80 000 men) the austrian army of Italy (30 000 men) and the spanish-portuguese corps which were prepared (50 000 men) and naturally the new british army of Holland (40 000 men).The imperial senate which was informed that the fronteers were defended with less than 20 000 men (Pyrenees,Alpes,Jura) would have totally refused a new scenario of 1814.
 
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stevev

Ad Honorem
Apr 2017
2,668
Las Vegas, NV USA
#19

^
The Channel Islands are very close to the Normandy coast. They were occupied right up to May 8,1945, the very last day of WWII in Europe.
 
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