If Napoleon won at Waterloo and lost the war later on, what does the peace look like?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,750
SoCal
If Napoleon would have won at Waterloo,he would have lost in august or september for three reasons:
1) He refuses to restablish the conscription which was totally impopular since 1810.
2) The losses of june 1815 were enormous,40 000 men,33% of the army of the north.And in Strasbourg,Rapp had only 30 000 men.
3) With an army of 110 000 men he couldn t stop the austrian and russian armies which were arriving by the east (400 000 men) the second prussian army with the ex confederation of the Rhin (80 000 men) the austrian army of Italy (30 000 men) and the spanish-portuguese corps which were prepared (50 000 men) and naturally the new british army of Holland (40 000 men).The imperial senate which was informed that the fronteers were defended with less than 20 000 men (Pyrenees,Alpes,Jura) would have totally refused a new scenario of 1814.
Interesting analysis.

BTW, what do you think that the post-war peace settlement would have looked like in this scenario?
 

stevev

Ad Honorem
Apr 2017
3,625
Las Vegas, NV USA
Makes sense, since there doesn't appear to have been much point in wasting men to liberate these islands.
There was a documentary (PBS) about this but I don't call the details. The population were approaching starvation toward the very end. They were forced to labour on massive defense works (which are still there) since Hitler thought they were strategically valuable to the allies. I visited Jersey with a group and a young British woman (not local) was quite distressed about leaving her people to the tender mercies of the Nazis for so long. Of course an allied invasion would no doubt produce civilian casualties.
 
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paranoid marvin

Ad Honorem
Aug 2015
2,359
uk
What we have to remember as well is that the Allies weren't at war with France; they were at war with Napoleon. Which is perhaps everything fell apart after Waterloo. I mean, Waterloo was a bad result, but Nap still had Grouchys massive army, Wellington's had taken a real battering and Blucher had been beaten at Ligny. Obviously Nap wanted to continue - but nobody else did. So even if he won at Waterloo, capitulation was only ever one defeat away; and perhaps with further hardships for the French, they would have given up even if Napoleon had continued to be victorious.
 
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May 2017
1,194
France
We must discuss about that.The 2d battle of Fleurus the 16th june,called Ligny,took place during the movement of Ney at "Quatre Bras".As 20 000 men of the "Young Guard" were fighting in Vendee,Napoleon was obliged to engage the ordinary régiments of line who lost 12 000 men,10 % of the total efectives.The Prussians had lost 16 000 men, and not 25 000 as in the oficial version destinated to the imperial senate it was said.The "25 000 losses" killed and wounded, have been made by the addition of the 16 000 real losses with the number of 7000 young desertors,completely terrorized by the violence of the fight.
In reality;the Prussians could attack with more than 100 000 men the 18th june:Blucher,Bulow,Pirch,Zieten army corps.So even with the entrance of the Grouchy s corp in the battle,it was lost.Grouchy who was not an idiot,had understood the situation and prefered protecting the road of Paris with his 35 000 men.The fight of Wavre was just a simulation to satisfy his officers (100 % of them wanted to " marchat the guns") and the public ipinion.
 
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