If South Vietnam falls in the 1960s, do any other Asian countries go Communist?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
14,247
SoCal
#1
If JFK would have lived and withdrew from Vietnam by 1965 and if South Vietnam would have fallen sometime in the late 1960s, do any other Asian countries other than Laos go Communist?

I'm wondering if there would have been a more significant domino effect if South Vietnam would have fallen in, say, 1967 than if South Vietnam would have fallen in 1975. After all, North Vietnam would have been much less exhausted in the first scenario.
 
Sep 2018
30
Edmond, Ok USA
#2
Since the Vietnam War was really a civil war and not a political movement like the United States had initially preceived, I don't think expansion would have happened.

And as it turned out, the invasion of Cambodia was Vietnam's Vietnam War.
 

Chlodio

Ad Honorem
Aug 2016
3,480
Dispargum
#3
I'm not a big fan of the Domino Theory, at least not in SE Asia. The Vietnamese were far more interested in national liberation and unification than in any global Communist conspiracy. The spread of Communism to Laos and Cambodia is easily explained as spillover, or as ridding the former French Indochina of the last vestiges of colonialism.
 

AlpinLuke

Ad Honoris
Oct 2011
24,963
Lago Maggiore, Italy
#4
The problem was regional. The Domino Theory [shared by Republicans and Democrats] saw a kind of chain [or domino] ...

China > Korea > Vietnam > Laos > Cambodia > Thailand > Malaysia > Indonesia > Burma > India.

China and Korea were gone, Vietnam was in the middle of the confrontation and the rest of the domino chain concerned the American leadership because of the last ring of the chain ... India. If India fell into the Communist sphere it would have been a total disaster.

Was this realistic?

Mah ... Vietnam, with aids from Russia and China, was able to stand a war of resistance in its own territories, I do doubt it was able to support a diffusion of Communist guerrillas and revolutions in the region.
 

stevev

Ad Honorem
Apr 2017
2,784
Las Vegas, NV USA
#5
Although the US involvement started under a Democratic administration, its supporters became more Republican after Nixon's election. Many still believed all of Southeast Asia was at risk and possibly even India. In fact its not clear why they were wrong if Leninist ideology still prevailed. Certainly SE Asian states would not be able to fend off a determined military offensive backed by China and the USSR. One can only conclude that Leninist/Trotskyite ideology no longer prevailed possibly in part because of fear of escalation to nuclear war. The main initiative was driven by Hanoi. In fact relations between China and North Vietnam were not that good.
 
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Feb 2016
539
ROK
#6
China > Korea > Vietnam > Laos > Cambodia > Thailand > Malaysia > Indonesia > Burma > India.

China and Korea were gone,
South Korea never became communist. There was a time during the Korean War when North Korea almost took over all of South Korea. The UN and South Korean forces managed to liberate back a lot of the South Korean cities on the same year quickly. By the time the US military got involved in Vietnam, a truce was already signed in Korea years earlier.

North Korea became communist soon after WWII ended when the Soviet Union reached there. Korea was under Japanese occupation. The situation in North Korea was more similar to the Eastern European countries. It wasn't the general population's original decision to become communist. During WWII, Roosevelt asked Stalin to help defeat Japan. When the Soviet Union reached Manchuria and approached Korea faster than expected, the United States proposed a temporary line in between Korea where the Soviet Union would halt. Stalin agreed to this. The United States were concerned that the USSR might reach Korea before the US could.
 
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Likes: Futurist
Dec 2018
1
Vietnam
#8
I am vietnamese and i want everybody understand .My country only wanted to defeat America and reunite the nation. We do not have free time to spread our ideology as well as invade other countries. As you can see, my country after defeating the Americans during the Vietnam War. We have focused on rebuilding the country until today. Your assumption is quite interesting :))
 
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Poly

Ad Honorem
Apr 2011
6,692
Georgia, USA
#9
Since the Vietnam War was really a civil war and not a political movement like the United States had initially preceived, I don't think expansion would have happened.

And as it turned out, the invasion of Cambodia was Vietnam's Vietnam War.


The Vietnam War was not a civil war, it was a war of independence.
 
Likes: Futurist

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
14,247
SoCal
#10
I am vietnamese and i want everybody understand .My country only wanted to defeat America and reunite the nation. We do not have free time to spread our ideology as well as invade other countries. As you can see, my country after defeating the Americans during the Vietnam War. We have focused on rebuilding the country until today. Your assumption is quite interesting :))
This isn't my assumption, but that of U.S. policymakers in the 1960s. This is what the domino theory was all about.