If there is no Holocaust, how do the Jewish communities of Eastern Europe look like right now?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,916
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What drove Jews to the revolution were the politics of two very dumb monarchs, Alexander III and his son Nicholas II who were very anti-Semitic and established 3% norm for gymnasiums for Jews.
The Pale of Settlement and pogroms were obviously completely unacceptable and tragic, but the Jewish quotas at universities and other fields actually made some sense if one was a blank slatist. After all, if all groups have the same potential and one group is overperforming, then one could argue that it would make sense to implement a policy of favor of affirmative action in favor of the underperforming groups. In this case, the underperforming groups were everyone else; thus, these quotas could be viewed as being a case of pro-non-Jewish affirmative action:

Russian Anti-Semitism, Or Just Affirmative Action In Action?
 
Apr 2018
979
Upland, Sweden
Agreed with all of this, but please keep in mind that the US largely shut its doors to immigrants in the 1920s. It would take a while for the US to reopen these doors--possibly even longer without WWII and the Holocaust than it took in real life.
Good point, I didn't think of that - but you're obviously right.

Perhaps the British mandate in Palestine could have become more populated by Jews even earlier in this scenario? There was some migration of Jews there even in the inter-war years, correct? Maybe this trend would have increased and become extrapolated over time in a situation where there is no Holocaust...

Or perhaps many would have gone to Germany. That is another possibility. Maybe that would have had the unintended consequence of screwing with the premise of this question, at least somewhat...
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,916
SoCal
Good point, I didn't think of that - but you're obviously right.

Perhaps the British mandate in Palestine could have become more populated by Jews even earlier in this scenario? There was some migration of Jews there even in the inter-war years, correct? Maybe this trend would have increased and become extrapolated over time in a situation where there is no Holocaust...
Palestine is certainly possible. The question is whether Britain would have been more willing to allow large-scale Jewish immigration into Palestine without WWII.

Also, I wonder if the Jews in Palestine are going to be more accomplished than Israeli Jews are in real life due to the higher Ashkenazi Jewish percentage in Palestine/Israel in this scenario.

Or perhaps many would have gone to Germany. That is another possibility. Maybe that would have had the unintended consequence of screwing with the premise of this question, at least somewhat...
That's also very possible--if Germany would have actually let them in, of course.

BTW, how exactly is this going to screw with the premise of my question here?
 
Apr 2018
979
Upland, Sweden
Palestine is certainly possible. The question is whether Britain would have been more willing to allow large-scale Jewish immigration into Palestine without WWII.

Also, I wonder if the Jews in Palestine are going to be more accomplished than Israeli Jews are in real life due to the higher Ashkenazi Jewish percentage in Palestine/Israel in this scenario.
Right. Maybe. It is also possible that it depends more on the policies Israel pursues, I mean Israel was pretty unaccomplished economically as long as they kept pushing the whole early socialist Kibbutz ideal, from what I've understood. Maybe chronic (but not as violent as the Holocaust) opression in Eastern Europe would further entrench left-wing elements in Israel, as they will look upon Eastern Europe as a sort of "half-home" where they can see that their friends and relatives who did not migrate are still treated poorly etc.

That's also very possible--if Germany would have actually let them in, of course.

BTW, how exactly is this going to screw with the premise of my question here?
Yes, although it's much more difficult for Germany to control its borders than it is for Britain or the US. They have a landborder with Poland, I mean you can talk about "border controls" all you want, but its going to be a somewhat theoretical construct provided the people who are fleeing are motivated enough (and the Germans are unwilling to put up an Eastern wall, which is not something I see a government like the Weimar Republic doing).

Something like that might screw with your premise by encouraging bad feelings towards Jews in Germany. If we suppose that WW1 still happened, then it is also reasonable that large amounts of Eastern European Jews who are less assimilated, more politically radical, more foreign and have quite a worse history in interacting with Christians are going to enflame things in Germany.

Suppose there is some kind of large scale pogrom in Poland. Maybe the following would happen:

Angry right-wing politician: "Honest German folk are still suffering from hyperinflation, they are still suffering from the loss of honour during the war... and now the dignity of the Fatherland is going to be insulted by having us take in large amounts of foreigners, foreigners who come here because they are not even liked in their own lands, lands that in large part should be German by right! This is what the lower races accomplish when left to their own devices, chaos, instability and now we have to pay for it! Shame! Shame! Remember Brest-Litovsk!"

Etc. Etc. Etc.

Of course it is not sure Jews would be targeted by something like that, but if hundreds of thousands of Jews move into a Germany that is still going to be in a politically charged situation (even without Hitler in power) it might perhaps increase the chances of.... Hitler coming to power.
 
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Futurist

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May 2014
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Right. Maybe. It is also possible that it depends more on the policies Israel pursues, I mean Israel was pretty unaccomplished economically as long as they kept pushing the whole earsly socialist Kibbutz ideal, from what I've understood. Maybe chronic (but not as violent as the Holocaust) opression in Eastern Europe would further entrench left-wing elements in Israel, as they will look upon Eastern Europe as a sort of "half-home" where they can see that their friends and relatives who did not migrate are still treated poorly etc.
That makes sense. That said, though, what exactly is looking at Eastern Europe actually going to accomplish? I mean, other than the USSR, Eastern Europe won't become Communist in this scenario.

Yes, although it's much more difficult for Germany to control its borders than it is for Britain or the US. They have a landborder with Poland, I mean you can talk about "border controls" all you want, but its going to be a somewhat theoretical construct provided the people who are fleeing are motivated enough (and the Germans are unwilling to put up an Eastern wall, which is not something I see a government like the Weimar Republic doing).
Makes sense, I suppose--though if enough Jews will come, maybe there will be a wall. Or maybe not. After all, Trump's promises in regards to building a border wall have fallen flat--and that was after the US has 11 million immigrants!

Something like that might screw with your premise by encouraging bad feelings towards Jews in Germany. If we suppose that WW1 still happened, then it is also reasonable that large amounts of Eastern European Jews who are less assimilated, more politically radical, more foreign and have quite a worse history in interacting with Christians are going to enflame things in Germany.

Suppose there is some kind of large scale pogrom in Poland. Maybe the following would happen:

Angry right-wing politician: "Honest German folk are still suffering from hyperinflation, they are still suffering from the loss of honour during the war... and now the dignity of the Fatherland is going to be insulted by having us take in large amounts of foreigners, foreigners who come here because they are not even liked in their own lands, lands that in large part should be German by right! This is what the lower races accomplish when left to their own devices, chaos, instability and now we have to pay for it! Shame! Shame! Remember Brest-Litovsk!"

Etc. Etc. Etc.

Of course it is not sure Jews would be targeted by something like that, but if hundreds of thousands of Jews move into a Germany that is still going to be in a politically charged situation (even without Hitler in power) it might perhaps increase the chances of.... Hitler coming to power. Maybe.
Sure, large-scale Jewish migration and the resulting problems that it might cause might very well provide a lot of ammo for a demagogue such as Hitler. Still, without a large-scale economic crisis to go along with this, I don't think that this in itself would be enough for Hitler to actually come to power in Germany--let alone to consolidate absolute power in Germany.
 
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arkteia

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Nov 2012
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Seattle
The history and destiny of the Jews is not totally unlike that of another group that were victims of the genocide and pogroms, the Armenians. And while Armenians definitely assimilate, still they never forget either the Turkish slayings of the early XX century or the pogroms in late 1980as in Baku. There definitely is integration, but there also is the feeling of being of the Armenian stock. I believe that without the Holocaust, the same would have happened to the Jews.
@Futurist, if you know Armenian refugees from Azerbaijan, you might understand what I mean. It is very interesting to talk to them now, because I suspect emotionally, they are not unlike the Jews who arrived to the U.S. from Imperial Russia to escape the pogroms.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
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SoCal
The history and destiny of the Jews is not totally unlike that of another group that were victims of the genocide and pogroms, the Armenians. And while Armenians definitely assimilate, still they never forget either the Turkish slayings of the early XX century or the pogroms in late 1980as in Baku. There definitely is integration, but there also is the feeling of being of the Armenian stock. I believe that without the Holocaust, the same would have happened to the Jews.
@Futurist, if you know Armenian refugees from Azerbaijan, you might understand what I mean. It is very interesting to talk to them now, because I suspect emotionally, they are not unlike the Jews who arrived to the U.S. from Imperial Russia to escape the pogroms.
Makes sense, I suppose.
 
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Isleifson

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Aug 2013
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Lorraine tudesque
Not far from my village before 1938 there was a Sionist camp. The idea was to train poor, young Jews from big German cities like Frankfurt am Main to be farmer's in Palestine. The idea was that the perfect settler would be a farmer.
This city dwellers were far more liberal then the local farmers.
So this boys and girls sitting half naked in the morning drinking coffee and smoking in front of the building, was quite a surprise.
 
Apr 2019
171
Europe
Probably their percentage would be smaller as it was already declining before World War II.

Here is the data on religious groups in Poland in 1921 and 1931 censuses, in thousands:

Roman Catholics - 17366 / 20827 (increase from 63.9% to 64.8%)
Greek Catholics - 3031 / 3362 (decline from 11.2% to 10.5%)
Orthodoxes - 2847 / 3787 (increase from 10.5% to 11.8%)
Protestants - 1002 / 842 (decline from 3.7% to 2.6%)
Jews - 2846 / 3137 (decline from 10.5% to 9.8%)
Others - 85 / 152 (increase from 0.2% to 0.5%)

Total population - 27177 (this counted within the same borders as in 1931) / 32107

Changes were caused by a combination of factors like birthrates, conversions, migrations.

BTW check my thread: In a no-WW2 scenario would Poland's population today be larger than France's population?
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
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SoCal
Probably their percentage would be smaller as it was already declining before World War II.

Here is the data on religious groups in Poland in 1921 and 1931 censuses, in thousands:

Roman Catholics - 17366 / 20827 (increase from 63.9% to 64.8%)
Greek Catholics - 3031 / 3362 (decline from 11.2% to 10.5%)
Orthodoxes - 2847 / 3787 (increase from 10.5% to 11.8%)
Protestants - 1002 / 842 (decline from 3.7% to 2.6%)
Jews - 2846 / 3137 (decline from 10.5% to 9.8%)
Others - 85 / 152 (increase from 0.2% to 0.5%)

Total population - 27177 (this counted within the same borders as in 1931) / 32107

Changes were caused by a combination of factors like birthrates, conversions, migrations.

BTW check my thread: In a no-WW2 scenario would Poland's population today be larger than France's population?
So, something like 5% of Poland's total population (and falling even further over time) would have been Jewish right now in this scenario? I know that the US Jewish percentage fell from over 3.5% to less than 2.0% between the early 20th century and right now.