In a no-WW2 scenario would Poland's population today be larger than France's population?

#1
Here is the data on Natural Growth rates in Poland in years 1911-2010:

Population on 01.01.1919 (within final Inter-War borders): 26,282,000

Year and natural growth rate (per 1000 inhabitants):

1919 4.1
1920 5.9

Population in 1921 (within final Inter-War borders*): 27,177,000

*This number includes Central Lithuania and East Upper Silesia.

Year and natural growth rate:

1921 12.0
1922 15.4
1923 18.5

Population on 01.01.1924 - 28,774,000

Year and natural growth rate:

1924 16.8
1925 18.6
1926 15.3
1927 14.3
1928 15.9
1929 15.3
1930 17.0

Population on 01.01.1931 - 31,685,000
Census data (09.12.1931) - 32,107,000
Population on 01.01.1932 - 32,150,000

Year and natural growth rate:

1931 14.7
1932 13.9
1933 12.3
1934 12.1
1935 12.1
1936 12.0
1937 10.9

Population on 01.01.1938 - 34,534,000

1938 11.0

Population on 01.01.1939 - 35,319,000

1939 11.6

For years 1940-1945 we do not have - for obvious reasons - any exact data about natural growth rate.

However, for some reason immediately after WW2 natural growth rate was much higher than in 1939:

Year and natural growth rate:

1940 ???
1941 ???
1942 ???
1943 ???
1944 ???
1945 ???

1946 16.0
1947 17.8
1948 18.2
1949 18.2
1950 19.1
1951 18.6
1952 19.1
1953 19.5
1954 18.8
1955 19.5
1956 19.1
1957 18.1
1958 17.9
1959 16.1
1960 15.1
1961 13.3
1962 11.9
1963 11.7
1964 10.5
1965 10.0
1966 9.4
1967 8.5
1968 8.7
1969 8.2
1970 8.6
1971 8.5
1972 9.4
1973 9.6
1974 10.2
1975 10.2
1976 10.7
1977 10.1
1978 9.7
1979 10.4
1980 9.6
1981 9.7
1982 10.2
1983 10.2
1984 9.1
1985 8.0
1986 6.9
1987 6.0
1988 5.7
1989 4.8
1990 4.1
1991 3.7
1992 3.2
1993 2.7
1994 2.5
1995 1.2
1996 1.1
1997 0.9
1998 0.5
1999 0.0
2000 0.3
2001 0.1
2002 -0.1
2003 -0.4
2004 -0.2
2005 -0.1
2006 0.1
2007 0.3
2008 0.9
2009 0.9
2010 0.9
2011 census - population 38,538,447
 
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#2
And here the data on religious groups in Poland in 1921 / 1931 censuses, in thousands:

Roman Catholics - 17366 / 20827 (increase from 63.9% to 64.8%)
Greek Catholics - 3031 / 3362 (decline from 11.2% to 10.5%)
Orthodoxes - 2847 / 3787 (increase from 10.5% to 11.8%)
Protestants - 1002 / 842 (decline from 3.7% to 2.6%)
Jews - 2846 / 3137 (decline from 10.5% to 9.8%)
Others - 85 / 152 (increase from 0.2% to 0.5%)

Total population - 27177 (this data refers to the same borders as 1931 data) / 32107

Changes were caused by a combination of factors like birthrates, conversions, migrations.
 
#3
In 1939 France and Poland had the following (approximate) population sizes:

France - 42 million
Poland - 35 million

In 1950 France and Poland had the following (approximate) population sizes:

France - 42 million - https://www.populationpyramid.net/france/1950/
Poland - 25 million - according to the census of December 3, 1950

So in 1950 France had as many people as in 1939, while Poland 10 million fewer.

==========

In 2011 France and Poland had the following (approximate) population sizes:

France - 65 million
Poland - 39 million

However it is known that France has actually had a low natural growth rate in the 1900s especially compared to Poland.

So probably without population losses and border shifts caused by WW2, Poland could have actually surpassed France.

Much of France's population growth in last decades has been due to immigration.

==========

This graph shows Poland's population size right before and after World War II:

 
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#6
I assumed that growth rates in 1940-1945 would have been the same as average growth rate in 1930-1939 (which was 12.76 per 1000).

After 1945, I assumed that growth rate would be the same as it was in reality according to the data for each subsequent year listed above.

Here is the estimation I got in Libre Office Calc (Ia predicted population of Poland of over 67 million inhabitants in the early 21st century):

Year / natural growth / population:

1939 / 1.0116 / 35319000 (you have to multiply x 1.0116 to get 1940 number)
1940 / 1.01276 / 35728700 (multiply x 1.01276 to get 1941 number, etc., etc.)
1941 / 1.01276 / 36184599
1942 / 1.01276 / 36646314
1943 / 1.01276 / 37113921
1944 / 1.01276 / 37587495
1945 / 1.01276 / 38067111
1946 / 1.016 / 38552847
1947 / 1.0178 / 39169693
1948 / 1.0182 / 39866914
1949 / 1.0182 / 40592491
1950 / 1.0191 / 41331275
1951 / 1.0186 / 42120702
1952 / 1.0191 / 42904147
1953 / 1.0195 / 43723616
1954 / 1.0188 / 44576227
1955 / 1.0195 / 45414260
1956 / 1.0191 / 46299838
1957 / 1.0181 / 47184165
1958 / 1.0179 / 48038198
1959 / 1.0161 / 48898082
1960 / 1.0151 / 49685341
1961 / 1.0133 / 50435590
1962 / 1.0119 / 51106383
1963 / 1.0117 / 51714549
1964 / 1.0105 / 52319609
1965 / 1.01 / 52868965
1966 / 1.0094 / 53397655
1967 / 1.0085 / 53899593
1968 / 1.0087 / 54357739
1969 / 1.0082 / 54830652
1970 / 1.0086 / 55280263
1971 / 1.0085 / 55755673
1972 / 1.0094 / 56229597
1973 / 1.0096 / 56758155
1974 / 1.0102 / 57303033
1975 / 1.0102 / 57887524
1976 / 1.0107 / 58477977
1977 / 1.0101 / 59103691
1978 / 1.0097 / 59700638
1979 / 1.0104 / 60279735
1980 / 1.0096 / 60906644
1981 / 1.0097 / 61491348
1982 / 1.0102 / 62087814
1983 / 1.0102 / 62721109
1984 / 1.0091 / 63360865
1985 / 1.008 / 63937449
1986 / 1.0069 / 64448948
1987 / 1.006 / 64893646
1988 / 1.0057 / 65283008
1989 / 1.0048 / 65655121
1990 / 1.0041 / 65970265
1991 / 1.0037 / 66240744
1992 / 1.0032 / 66485834
1993 / 1.0027 / 66698589
1994 / 1.0025 / 66878675
1995 / 1.0012 / 67045872
1996 / 1.0011 / 67126327
1997 / 1.0009 / 67200166
1998 / 1.0005 / 67260646
1999 / 1 / 67294276
2000 / 1.0003 / 67294276
2001 / 1.0001 / 67314465
2002 / 0.9999 / 67321196
2003 / 0.9996 / 67314464
2004 / 0.9998 / 67287538
2005 / 0.9999 / 67274081
2006 / 1.0001 / 67267353
2007 / 1.0003 / 67274080
2008 / 1.0009 / 67294262
2009 / 1.0009 / 67354827
2010 / 1.0009 / 67415446
2011 / census / 67476120

^^^
In this model the predicted population of Poland in a no-WW2 scenario for year 2011 is 67,476,120 inhabitants. More than France's 65 million.
 
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Larrey

Ad Honorem
Sep 2011
5,244
#7
Yeah, post-WWII France had a crude reproduction rate well over 2 (replacement rate), approaching 3 at times. It didn't dip below 2 until 1977, and has since never gone below 1,73. (If I'm correctly informed it's currently at 1,87.) Factor in how life expectancy has grown by leaps and bounds alongside it (from under 70 to over 82 now), and the end result is a massive post-WWII French natural population growth.

What's "known" about flagging French reproduction rate is representative of French demographics from ca 1850 and right up TO WWII. But then it changed radically. France ahead of the curve of everyone else (by as much as a century) hit a kind of "reproductive slowdown" associated with modernity that right now is on display in a lot of countries all over the world. (S. Korea looks like seriously dwindling right now).

But then, if France is an example, it might also indicate that there might be a nice comeback brewing fo the currently so demographically challenged?
 
#8
^^^ What about France's natural growth rate? Poland's natural growth rates after WW2 were high until the 1980s (as you can see in the data above).

What's "known" about flagging French reproduction rate is representative of French demographics from ca 1850 and right up TO WWII. But then it changed radically.

Actually it seems that many countries had higher natural growth rates after WW2 than immediately before WW2. But was that caused by the war?

If you compare Poland's natural growth rate in the 1930s to that in the 1950s, you can also see that in the 1950s it was higher than in the 1930s.

But in the 1960s natural growth rates already returned back to 1930s levels.
 
#9
France has, for European conditions, had a stunningly high natural population growth following WWII, i.e. growth not involving immigration.
Okay. But still the data I have posted shows that Poland could have had - thanks to natural growth ALONE - perhaps even 67 or 68 million people in a no-WW2 scenario.

Which is more than metropolitan France currently has (as the result of both its natural growth rate and its high number of immigrants, who have also contributed to it).

Already before WW2 Poland's population was only few million smaller than France's population, and after WW2 Poland had a fast population growth until the 1980s.
 
#10
France has one of the biggest natural population growths in Europe ( growth not involving immigration ).
It didn't dip below 2 until 1977, and has since never gone below 1,73. (If I'm correctly informed it's currently at 1,87.)
^^^
It is currently actually at 1,89 for all inhabitants, but at only 1,70 for the native French-born population:

TFR of immigrants from outside of the EU in France is two times higher than that of native Frenchmen:

 
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