In a no-WW2 scenario would Poland's population today be larger than France's population?

Jun 2017
2,909
Connecticut
#11
And here the data on religious groups in Poland in 1921 / 1931 censuses, in thousands:

Roman Catholics - 17366 / 20827 (increase from 63.9% to 64.8%)
Greek Catholics - 3031 / 3362 (decline from 11.2% to 10.5%)
Orthodoxes - 2847 / 3787 (increase from 10.5% to 11.8%)
Protestants - 1002 / 842 (decline from 3.7% to 2.6%)
Jews - 2846 / 3137 (decline from 10.5% to 9.8%)
Others - 85 / 152 (increase from 0.2% to 0.5%)

Total population - 27177 (this data refers to the same borders as 1931 data) / 32107

Changes were caused by a combination of factors like birthrates, conversions, migrations.
Perhaps but we got to remember the fact France's population is as low as it is is because of several centuries of large scale generational war. France's population was also boosted by immigration from it's adjacent African colonies, something Poland couldn't have been boosted by. Poland certainly could have a larger population, but 70 million is a stretch and France could have a Brazil to USA sized population in some of these scenario's if they'd avoided certain conflicts. The reason Poland was as close to Germany and France as she was in the early 20th century is cause of these wars. France's demographic recovery in the last half century has come nowhere close to making up for the centuries of war that left it in the position Japan and Russia currently find themselves in a century ago. Poland's ceiling with no WWII is nowhere near as high as France or Germany's ceilings cause WWII was the fifth or sixth demographic catastrophe those nations underwent not the first or second.
 
#12
Perhaps but we got to remember the fact France's population is as low as it is is because of several centuries of large scale generational war. France's population was also boosted by immigration from it's adjacent African colonies, something Poland couldn't have been boosted by. Poland certainly could have a larger population, but 70 million is a stretch and France could have a Brazil to USA sized population in some of these scenario's if they'd avoided certain conflicts. The reason Poland was as close to Germany and France as she was in the early 20th century is cause of these wars. France's demographic recovery in the last half century has come nowhere close to making up for the centuries of war that left it in the position Japan and Russia currently find themselves in a century ago. Poland's ceiling with no WWII is nowhere near as high as France or Germany's ceilings cause WWII was the fifth or sixth demographic catastrophe those nations underwent not the first or second.
Well, Poland also suffered large human losses in the mid-17th to early-18th centuries (between 1648 and the Great Northern War).

The peak was around 1618-1640s when Poland-Lithuania had 12 million inhabitants (about 5 million of them were ethnic Poles), after that population significantly declined.

During the Napoleonic Wars, a large part of Napoleon's army were ethnic Poles as well, and a lot of them perished in Russia in 1812:



During World War I there was no Poland as a country, but ethnic Poles fought and died in Russian, German, Austrian and French armies.

Also much of World War I's Eastern Front was fought on ethnically and historically Polish lands: Congress Poland and also other areas.
 
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Likes: Futurist
Jun 2017
2,909
Connecticut
#13
Well Poland suffered large demographic losses in the mid-17th to early-18th centuries.

The peak was around 1618-1648 when Poland-Lithuania had 12 million inhabitants (and about 5 million of that were ethnic Poles).

In the Napoleonic Wars, a large part of Napoleon's army were ethnic Poles as well, and most of them perished in Russia in 1812:


Relatively speaking. France and Germany's demographic disasters were much more population crippling. It was also constant for several hundred years including the industrial age, which didn't allow the population to recover at a time when it was going to be expanding at the highest rate.

Per the wikipedia series on global population List of countries by population in 1800 - Wikipedia

In 1600, France had 20 million people to the Commonwealth's near 8. Also the 1800 page which breaks down the split up commonwealth's population shows that Galicia had the overwhelming majority of those people. Russian Poland had about 1.2 million so let's say Poland had about 2 million at that point? France had close to 30 million at the point. By the start of WWII, France had 41 million and Poland(though including more territory) had 35, closing most of the gap in about 140 years(in line with other countries). Now Poland's serious losses in WWII(while France suffered almost non relatively) followed by France's recovery and immigration have nearly doubled France's population while Poland's is barely larger but France was only in that position cause there was a large scale war almost every generation going back to Joan of Arc.

The Kingdom of Poland is listed as having 2.5 million people in 1500 but that Kingdom included much more territory than Poland.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,020
SoCal
#14
I assumed that growth rates in 1940-1945 would have been the same as average growth rate in 1930-1939 (which was 12.76 per 1000).

After 1945, I assumed that growth rate would be the same as it was in reality according to the data for each subsequent year listed above.

Here is the estimation I got in Libre Office Calc (Ia predicted population of Poland of over 67 million inhabitants in the early 21st century):

Year / natural growth / population:

1939 / 1.0116 / 35319000 (you have to multiply x 1.0116 to get 1940 number)
1940 / 1.01276 / 35728700 (multiply x 1.01276 to get 1941 number, etc., etc.)
1941 / 1.01276 / 36184599
1942 / 1.01276 / 36646314
1943 / 1.01276 / 37113921
1944 / 1.01276 / 37587495
1945 / 1.01276 / 38067111
1946 / 1.016 / 38552847
1947 / 1.0178 / 39169693
1948 / 1.0182 / 39866914
1949 / 1.0182 / 40592491
1950 / 1.0191 / 41331275
1951 / 1.0186 / 42120702
1952 / 1.0191 / 42904147
1953 / 1.0195 / 43723616
1954 / 1.0188 / 44576227
1955 / 1.0195 / 45414260
1956 / 1.0191 / 46299838
1957 / 1.0181 / 47184165
1958 / 1.0179 / 48038198
1959 / 1.0161 / 48898082
1960 / 1.0151 / 49685341
1961 / 1.0133 / 50435590
1962 / 1.0119 / 51106383
1963 / 1.0117 / 51714549
1964 / 1.0105 / 52319609
1965 / 1.01 / 52868965
1966 / 1.0094 / 53397655
1967 / 1.0085 / 53899593
1968 / 1.0087 / 54357739
1969 / 1.0082 / 54830652
1970 / 1.0086 / 55280263
1971 / 1.0085 / 55755673
1972 / 1.0094 / 56229597
1973 / 1.0096 / 56758155
1974 / 1.0102 / 57303033
1975 / 1.0102 / 57887524
1976 / 1.0107 / 58477977
1977 / 1.0101 / 59103691
1978 / 1.0097 / 59700638
1979 / 1.0104 / 60279735
1980 / 1.0096 / 60906644
1981 / 1.0097 / 61491348
1982 / 1.0102 / 62087814
1983 / 1.0102 / 62721109
1984 / 1.0091 / 63360865
1985 / 1.008 / 63937449
1986 / 1.0069 / 64448948
1987 / 1.006 / 64893646
1988 / 1.0057 / 65283008
1989 / 1.0048 / 65655121
1990 / 1.0041 / 65970265
1991 / 1.0037 / 66240744
1992 / 1.0032 / 66485834
1993 / 1.0027 / 66698589
1994 / 1.0025 / 66878675
1995 / 1.0012 / 67045872
1996 / 1.0011 / 67126327
1997 / 1.0009 / 67200166
1998 / 1.0005 / 67260646
1999 / 1 / 67294276
2000 / 1.0003 / 67294276
2001 / 1.0001 / 67314465
2002 / 0.9999 / 67321196
2003 / 0.9996 / 67314464
2004 / 0.9998 / 67287538
2005 / 0.9999 / 67274081
2006 / 1.0001 / 67267353
2007 / 1.0003 / 67274080
2008 / 1.0009 / 67294262
2009 / 1.0009 / 67354827
2010 / 1.0009 / 67415446
2011 / census / 67476120

^^^
In this model the predicted population of Poland in a no-WW2 scenario for year 2011 is 67,476,120 inhabitants. More than France's 65 million.
What about immigration? Poland could have received a lot of immigration in the post-WWII decades if it would have continued its development trajectory and become a developed country by the end of the 20th century. Plus, without Communism, Poles might have been less nationalistic right now.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,020
SoCal
#15
Okay. But still the data I have posted shows that Poland could have had - thanks to natural growth ALONE - perhaps even 67 or 68 million people in a no-WW2 scenario.

Which is more than metropolitan France currently has (as the result of both its natural growth rate and its high number of immigrants, who have also contributed to it).

Already before WW2 Poland's population was only few million smaller than France's population, and after WW2 Poland had a fast population growth until the 1980s.
It's possible that Polish total fertility would have been a little bit lower in the 1970s and 1980s without Communism. I think that, under Communism, Eastern Europeans had a little bit more babies than Western Europeans had.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,020
SoCal
#16
What about immigration? Poland could have received a lot of immigration in the post-WWII decades if it would have continued its development trajectory and become a developed country by the end of the 20th century. Plus, without Communism, Poles might have been less nationalistic right now.
As a side question, which immigrant groups in Poland are going to be the largest ones right now in this scenario?
 
Oct 2013
14,533
Europix
#17
The proposed forecast is too linear to make a reliable supposition.

Did You checked the differences in children allowances offered by the state? Compared between two states in the same period, between two periods in the same state and relationship with fertility rates? Or between the religion, the religiosity and it's relationship with fertility rates?

There are a lot of factors that determine fertility rates, and some extremely difficult to modelise (sociological, cultural, religion)
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,020
SoCal
#18
The proposed forecast is too linear to make a reliable supposition.

Did You checked the differences in children allowances offered by the state? Compared between two states in the same period, between two periods in the same state and relationship with fertility rates? Or between the religion, the religiosity and it's relationship with fertility rates?

There are a lot of factors that determine fertility rates, and some extremely difficult to modelise (sociological, cultural, religion)
Also, immigration rates.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,020
SoCal
#19
Perhaps but we got to remember the fact France's population is as low as it is is because of several centuries of large scale generational war. France's population was also boosted by immigration from it's adjacent African colonies, something Poland couldn't have been boosted by. Poland certainly could have a larger population, but 70 million is a stretch and France could have a Brazil to USA sized population in some of these scenario's if they'd avoided certain conflicts. The reason Poland was as close to Germany and France as she was in the early 20th century is cause of these wars. France's demographic recovery in the last half century has come nowhere close to making up for the centuries of war that left it in the position Japan and Russia currently find themselves in a century ago. Poland's ceiling with no WWII is nowhere near as high as France or Germany's ceilings cause WWII was the fifth or sixth demographic catastrophe those nations underwent not the first or second.
Please keep in mind, though, that Poland will also include the Kresy in this scenario.

Also, if Poland really wants to have a lot of Black immigrants (and a lot of other Third World immigrants, for that matter) in this scenario, then it would probably indeed be capable of doing this.
 
Jun 2017
2,909
Connecticut
#20
Please keep in mind, though, that Poland will also include the Kresy in this scenario.

Also, if Poland really wants to have a lot of Black immigrants (and a lot of other Third World immigrants, for that matter) in this scenario, then it would probably indeed be capable of doing this.
Not on the scale France did. France got a lot of immigrants cause the people in French colonies spoke French and they were geographically near. The UK also because a lot of the colonies were English etc. A landlocked country in Eastern Europe where they speak a foreign language is going to be far less of a catch. Especially given the context of the Cold War. Of course they'll get some immigration, everywhere does, but it's the scale that matters.