In a no-WW2 scenario would Poland's population today be larger than France's population?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
18,701
SoCal
#21
Not on the scale France did. France got a lot of immigrants cause the people in French colonies spoke French and they were geographically near. The UK also because a lot of the colonies were English etc. A landlocked country in Eastern Europe where they speak a foreign language is going to be far less of a catch. Especially given the context of the Cold War. Of course they'll get some immigration, everywhere does, but it's the scale that matters.
Sweden got a lot of immigrants in spite of not having much of a colonial history, though.
 
Jun 2017
2,879
Connecticut
#22
Sweden got a lot of immigrants in spite of not having much of a colonial history, though.
Scandanavia is known as the happiest place on earth though which is an attraction most places don't have. There's also a much smaller original population. Sweden has 10 million people, Poland's got about 40 million. Per wikipedia the largest immigration community are Syrians (who immigrated due to an obvious specific reason) and there's less than 200,000. The second largest group are Fins a country that has less people than Sweden, and whom has Swedish as an official language. Swedes of foreign ancestry are a quarter of the population but a quarter of Sweden's population is a tiny fraction of most other countries.

Ironically one of the largest immigrant communities in Sweden appears to be Poles.
 
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Rodger

Ad Honorem
Jun 2014
5,990
US
#23
Here is the data on Natural Growth rates in Poland in years 1911-2010:

Population on 01.01.1919 (within final Inter-War borders): 26,282,000

Year and natural growth rate (per 1000 inhabitants):

1919 4.1
1920 5.9

Population in 1921 (within final Inter-War borders*): 27,177,000

*This number includes Central Lithuania and East Upper Silesia.

Year and natural growth rate:

1921 12.0
1922 15.4
1923 18.5

Population on 01.01.1924 - 28,774,000

Year and natural growth rate:

1924 16.8
1925 18.6
1926 15.3
1927 14.3
1928 15.9
1929 15.3
1930 17.0

Population on 01.01.1931 - 31,685,000
Census data (09.12.1931) - 32,107,000
Population on 01.01.1932 - 32,150,000

Year and natural growth rate:

1931 14.7
1932 13.9
1933 12.3
1934 12.1
1935 12.1
1936 12.0
1937 10.9

Population on 01.01.1938 - 34,534,000

1938 11.0

Population on 01.01.1939 - 35,319,000

1939 11.6

For years 1940-1945 we do not have - for obvious reasons - any exact data about natural growth rate.

However, for some reason immediately after WW2 natural growth rate was much higher than in 1939:

Year and natural growth rate:

1940 ???
1941 ???
1942 ???
1943 ???
1944 ???
1945 ???

1946 16.0
1947 17.8
1948 18.2
1949 18.2
1950 19.1
1951 18.6
1952 19.1
1953 19.5
1954 18.8
1955 19.5
1956 19.1
1957 18.1
1958 17.9
1959 16.1
1960 15.1
1961 13.3
1962 11.9
1963 11.7
1964 10.5
1965 10.0
1966 9.4
1967 8.5
1968 8.7
1969 8.2
1970 8.6
1971 8.5
1972 9.4
1973 9.6
1974 10.2
1975 10.2
1976 10.7
1977 10.1
1978 9.7
1979 10.4
1980 9.6
1981 9.7
1982 10.2
1983 10.2
1984 9.1
1985 8.0
1986 6.9
1987 6.0
1988 5.7
1989 4.8
1990 4.1
1991 3.7
1992 3.2
1993 2.7
1994 2.5
1995 1.2
1996 1.1
1997 0.9
1998 0.5
1999 0.0
2000 0.3
2001 0.1
2002 -0.1
2003 -0.4
2004 -0.2
2005 -0.1
2006 0.1
2007 0.3
2008 0.9
2009 0.9
2010 0.9
2011 census - population 38,538,447
Possibly. Wouldn't much of it depend upon economic growth? If no WW2, then no communism? If so, would industry have grown and agricultural remain strong? Would emigration have been minimal?
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
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SoCal
#24
Scandanavia is known as the happiest place on earth though which is an attraction most places don't have. There's also a much smaller original population. Sweden has 10 million people, Poland's got about 40 million. Per wikipedia the largest immigration community are Syrians (who immigrated due to an obvious specific reason) and there's less than 200,000. The second largest group are Fins a country that has less people than Sweden, and whom has Swedish as an official language. Swedes of foreign ancestry are a quarter of the population but a quarter of Sweden's population is a tiny fraction of most other countries.

Ironically one of the largest immigrant communities in Sweden appears to be Poles.
Did you ever look at the population projections for Sweden? They're not exactly pretty:

Muslim Population Growth in Europe





Granted, there might be a huge anti-immigration backlash in Sweden before that point in time, but even if so:



Sweden is still going to have a Muslim % comparable to the US's Black %.
 
#25
In 1600, France had 20 million people to the Commonwealth's near 8.
Wikipedia is not always the most reliable source. What sources do they use for this 8 million in the Commonwealth?

I will probably edit this article and insert 10-12 million for the Commonwealth instead (and provide sources to back it up).

The estimates for the Commonwealth in ca. 1580-1620 are solid because they are based on taxation of households. So the number of households is known from documents - all you need to is estimate the average number of people living in each household (and it has also been done based on existing data about the size of households in some villages/towns etc.).

PS:

The 8 million figure in Poland and Lithuania together would be fine but rather for year 1500, one century later it was more.

The Kingdom of Poland is listed as having 2.5 million people in 1500 but that Kingdom included much more territory than Poland.
Again I don't think that data is very reliable, are any sources even quoted there to back it up?

The most reliable data for Poland is for the decade 1570-1580. It is actually based on tax censuses of households from that time.

PS: Wikipedia says 7.5 million in Poland and in Lithuania in 1500: List of countries by population in 1500 - Wikipedia

I strongly doubt Lithuania had 5 million and Poland only 2.5 because population density in Lithuania was much lower than in Poland.
 
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#26
Relatively speaking. France and Germany's demographic disasters were much more population crippling.
The series of wars between 1648 and 1667 was extremely demographically crippling for Poland. Surely not any less than Thirty Years' War for Germany.

Taxpayer counts from the 1670s show - compared to the 1570s - around 20% population decline in general and 48% decline in urban population (towns suffered more than villages).

And keep in mind that in the 1640s the population was higher than in the 1570s, so real loss between 1648 and 1667 was actually much higher than 20%.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
18,701
SoCal
#27
Possibly. Wouldn't much of it depend upon economic growth? If no WW2, then no communism? If so, would industry have grown and agricultural remain strong? Would emigration have been minimal?
Poland would have probably had emigration rates comparable to those of Britain and France by the end of the 20th century in this scenario.

Also, Poland would probably be as wealthy as Britain and France on a per capita basis by the end of the 20th century in this scenario. After all, as you said, no WWII = no Communism in Poland. :)
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
18,701
SoCal
#29
No, not the immigration rates.

Maybe, somehow, immigration could be taken into account in the case of USA, but in the case of Europe to even think to take it into consideration is pretty nonsensical.
Germany has the world's second-largest immigrant population--with Russia having the world's third-largest immigrant population.
 
Oct 2013
14,261
Europix
#30
Germany has the world's second-largest immigrant population--with Russia having the world's third-largest immigrant population.
We were talking about population evolution forecast on long term.

Immigration in Europe isn't an "ordinary" phenomenon like in US, but an "extra-ordinary" one, occuring as a consequence of "extra-ordinary"" events.

Example:

If we had had this conversation in 1938, how many of us would have thought at taking into account a huge wave of some 10,000,000 "moving" people from Central and Eastern Europe Germany 10 years later?
 

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