Iran 2019

Cepheus

Ad Honorem
Dec 2011
2,309
Iran had always been the next to go once Syria was down.

After MBS is installed on the Saudi throne, things will truly come to a head in ME. All the other pieces are in place.
Bolton wants regime change. It is no secret how he thinks that should be done either. Hence the sanctions. I assume you know what I am talking about.
 

Cepheus

Ad Honorem
Dec 2011
2,309
I think it is about having an identified enemy. This is a well known propaganda technique, employing what is known as the "Big Lie". Having a named enemy is useful for propaganda purposes.

"Never to admit a fault or wrong; never to accept blame; concentrate on one enemy at a time; blame that enemy for everything that goes wrong; take advantage of every opportunity to raise a political whirlwind"

Analysis of the Personality of Adolph Hitler by Henry A. Murray
Or, the Trump administration could be serious about strangling Iran.

You are right in a way IMHO because the overt issue is the Iranian nuclear program and terrorist funding while the main issue IMO is regime change.
 
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Cepheus

Ad Honorem
Dec 2011
2,309
Not really. The Iran tensions are pushing the price up, while the US has pressed OPEC to raise production to keep prices down. If ot was about the price, they wouldn't be provoking tensions in the first place.

It really isn't about oil.
You are absolutely correct IMO.

Oil is a fringe issue here. It is a very minor component of what is driving the US to project its power into this area now.

Iran is getting pinched and they are starting to squirm. It is looking more like Trump is not going to lose political viability and now Iran is trying to figure out how to respond.

I am not a Trump supporter. I just don't know how to have this conversation without highlighting the importance of the US political status to the strategic thinking of Iran.
 
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Iraq Bruin

Ad Honorem
Oct 2010
5,195
DC
The differences between Democratic and Republican administrations is totally opposite in regard to the composition of their stance with Iran.
20 Years of Republican and 16 Years of Democrat, Iran stays with the same stance and belligerence with US presidents seeing more information than we do once they assume office.

We have not started a war since Jan 2017 and I do not expect us to do so either (I have been hearing about the impending war with X,Y,Z that are yet to materialize, I will keep waiting for the next "Warning of impending war)

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Bolton can want all he wants, a US-Friendly Iran is the last thing the terrorism source of the world (gulf states) would want, their heads would explode at the sight of a US-Friendly and strong Shia-State.

Iran can make the choice of becoming a US friendly nations as a strategic move to undercut the gulf states but they do not think that way because Islamism come first to them.
 

Cepheus

Ad Honorem
Dec 2011
2,309
Oil is the usual suspect, but not in this case. Trump is simply obliging two of US' closest allies in ME.
I think that is part of it for sure. I would have to say you are correct.

Additionally, the Trump admin though, IMO, is signaling to our EU allies that the US is serious about the sanctions so if they plan to do business with Iran by skirting the sanctions, there will be a price to pay.
 

Cepheus

Ad Honorem
Dec 2011
2,309
Iran's biggest mistake was giving up on nuclear program for economic benefitswhen they were weeks away from completing their own nuclear bomb.

They made foolish decision and now pay heavily for it.
Well, I don't know that they actually gave up on their nuclear program. Under the earlier arrangements made under the Obama admin they could still maintain some aspects of the program.

The problem for Iran has been the major geopolitical shift.

They have been patiently, IMO, taking the temperature of the US and EU currents and hoping for a shift back to the alignments structured during the Obama administration.

The de-structuring of those initial alignments are looking more permanent day by day.

Iran is now beginning to activate to figure out how to respond.

What happens if the Trump admin is serious about the sanctions and the allies perceive this ? This is big trouble for the Iranian leadership.
 

Cepheus

Ad Honorem
Dec 2011
2,309
20 Years of Republican and 16 Years of Democrat, Iran stays with the same stance and belligerence with US presidents seeing more information than we do once they assume office.

We have not started a war since Jan 2017 and I do not expect us to do so either (I have been hearing about the impending war with X,Y,Z that are yet to materialize, I will keep waiting for the next "Warning of impending war)

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Bolton can want all he wants, a US-Friendly Iran is the last thing the terrorism source of the world (gulf states) would want, their heads would explode at the sight of a US-Friendly and strong Shia-State.

Iran can make the choice of becoming a US friendly nations as a strategic move to undercut the gulf states but they do not think that way because Islamism come first to them.
Also, keep in mind, Russia would not want a US-Friendly Iran either for numerous reasons.

There are a lot of pieces on the table in play here.

This is very dangerous stuff.

Unfortunately, the Iranian people could take the brunt of it.
 

Linschoten

Ad Honoris
Aug 2010
16,211
Welsh Marches
There will be no direct conflict (save conceivably as the result of accidental circumstances); there is no appetite whatever in the USA for a further military adventure in the area, it would so obviously have dangerous and unpredictable ramifications if attempted that it would never be adopted as American policy, and since it would be even more dangerous for the Iranians to get involved in conflict with a much greater military power they themselves would never initiate hostilities.
 
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pikeshot1600

Ad Honorem
Jul 2009
9,958
There will be no direct conflict (save conceivably as the result of accidental circumstances); there is no appetite whatever in the USA for a further military adventure in the area, it would so obviously have dangerous and unpredictable ramifications if attempted that it would never be adopted as American policy, and since it would be even more dangerous for the Iranians to get involved in conflict with a much greater military power they themselves would never initiate hostilities.
Then accidental it may be. Today there are reports of drone attacks against Saudi oil infrastructure pump stations. The "Revolutionary Guard" (read Iranian mafia) has supposedly given its proxies the OK to attack US targets, whatever that might mean. Those proxies are often desperate people so who can say what might develop?

Perhaps the mullahs are themselves becoming desperate. The Iranian people who would be affected mean nothing to them, nor do the proxies who would take the heat from what results from attacks against the US. Old mullahs, religious fanatics who have grown comfortable living off of what they have successfully stolen from Iran, may not want to risk the unintended consequences, but actions speak so much louder than propaganda, so with what has been transpiring......accidental it may be.
 
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M.S. Islam

Ad Honorem
Jul 2012
3,333
Dhaka
Then accidental it may be. Today there are reports of drone attacks against Saudi oil infrastructure pump stations. The "Revolutionary Guard" (read Iranian mafia) has supposedly given its proxies the OK to attack US targets, whatever that might mean. Those proxies are often desperate people so who can say what might develop?
That doesn't make any kind of sense whatsoever. Therefore, I would rather discard those reports wholesale.
 
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