Iran wins the Iran-Iraq War

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,992
SoCal
What if Iran would have won the Iran-Iraq War as a result of (for whatever reason) US refusal to help Iraq in this war? Would Iraq have turned into an Iran-style theocracy afterwards or would it have become a democracy just like it did after 2003 in real life? Also, what effects would this have on the rest of the Middle East and on the rest of the world?
 

AlpinLuke

Forum Staff
Oct 2011
27,064
Italy, Lago Maggiore
Geopolitically it would have been a big problem with Iran in control of the Shatt Al-Arab ... South Iraq is Shia, so near to Iran.

But the problems for Iranians would have come North of the Shatt Al-Arab ... I guess that an Islamic State Sunni entity would have started a guerrilla in the center of the country and that in the North Kurds would have begun a real war of resistance. Without Americans [busy with something else], Russians would have decided the outcome of such a complicated situation.

Israel would have helped the Kurds and the Sunnis, no doubt [imagine: Israel supporting the Islamic State!]. But Turkey would have problems to give a hand to Kurds.

Anyway, I suspect that the "Shia Caliphate" would have been possible ...
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,992
SoCal
Geopolitically it would have been a big problem with Iran in control of the Shatt Al-Arab ... South Iraq is Shia, so near to Iran.

But the problems for Iranians would have come North of the Shatt Al-Arab ... I guess that an Islamic State Sunni entity would have started a guerrilla in the center of the country and that in the North Kurds would have begun a real war of resistance. Without Americans [busy with something else], Russians would have decided the outcome of such a complicated situation.

Israel would have helped the Kurds and the Sunnis, no doubt [imagine: Israel supporting the Islamic State!]. But Turkey would have problems to give a hand to Kurds.

Anyway, I suspect that the "Shia Caliphate" would have been possible ...
Might Iraq's Sunni Arabs want to unify with Jordan if they will be unable to dislodge the Iranians from all of Iraq?
 

AlpinLuke

Forum Staff
Oct 2011
27,064
Italy, Lago Maggiore
Might Iraq's Sunni Arabs want to unify with Jordan if they will be unable to dislodge the Iranians from all of Iraq?
I think so, overall if Turkey makes pressure from North [to limit the will of independence of the Kurds].
 
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Theodoric

Ad Honorem
Mar 2012
2,932
Yötebory Sveriya
I am unsure if the Iraqi Kurdish population would rebel against Iran considering they were allies.
Would Iraq be a theocracy? There's not really much indication that Iran would transform Iraq into Iran Jr. - - Rather what I think would be seen is devotion to the theocratical elements of Iran, with Iraq being a republican government in the Shia sphere rather than than the Sunni sphere.

The question of peace would be in how Saudi Arabia, their Arab allies, and Israel react. My gut opinion of the last 35 years:
* Israel remains opposed, but relations will be somewhat stable.
* Arab nations move away from Saudi Arabia toward the Iranian sphere; despite the religious differences, this is somewhat happening now, but it would be FAR more effective if Iran contained Iraq in their sphere of influence: Kuwait, Jordan, and others would be closer with Iran and less close with KSA.
* Saudi Arabia would likely develop closer relations with Israel and become the odd one out of near east politics.

To sum it up: I think the region would have greater stability than it has today. Perhaps no Syrian civil war.

Just my opinion, feel free to poke holes in it and I'll probably re-write later.
Love the topic.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,992
SoCal
I am unsure if the Iraqi Kurdish population would rebel against Iran considering they were allies.
Would Iraq be a theocracy? There's not really much indication that Iran would transform Iraq into Iran Jr. - - Rather what I think would be seen is devotion to the theocratical elements of Iran, with Iraq being a republican government in the Shia sphere rather than than the Sunni sphere.

The question of peace would be in how Saudi Arabia, their Arab allies, and Israel react. My gut opinion of the last 35 years:
* Israel remains opposed, but relations will be somewhat stable.
* Arab nations move away from Saudi Arabia toward the Iranian sphere; despite the religious differences, this is somewhat happening now, but it would be FAR more effective if Iran contained Iraq in their sphere of influence: Kuwait, Jordan, and others would be closer with Iran and less close with KSA.
* Saudi Arabia would likely develop closer relations with Israel and become the odd one out of near east politics.

To sum it up: I think the region would have greater stability than it has today. Perhaps no Syrian civil war.

Just my opinion, feel free to poke holes in it and I'll probably re-write later.
Love the topic.
That makes sense, but I wonder if a more decisive geopolitical defeat in Iraq and the Gulf would ironically make the Saudis and Israelis more determined to oust Assad if/once the Syrian people will rebel against him. After all, this would be perceived as being a golden opportunity to humiliate Iran and to avenge 30 years of weakness.
 

Dreamhunter

Ad Honorem
Jun 2012
7,483
Malaysia
That makes sense, but I wonder if a more decisive geopolitical defeat in Iraq and the Gulf would ironically make the Saudis and Israelis more determined to oust Assad if/once the Syrian people will rebel against him. After all, this would be perceived as being a golden opportunity to humiliate Iran and to avenge 30 years of weakness.
Cute fantasy. If the Syrian people would be so sweet & obliging enough to let Saudis & Israelis decide their own destiny.

While an Iranian victory would have made Bashir's position even stronger, rather than weaker.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,992
SoCal
Cute fantasy. If the Syrian people would be so sweet & obliging enough to let Saudis & Israelis decide their own destiny.

While an Iranian victory would have made Bashir's position even stronger, rather than weaker.
Bashar, not Bashir. Bashir is the guy in Sudan.
 

Dreamhunter

Ad Honorem
Jun 2012
7,483
Malaysia
I believe the spelling is identical in Arabic: بشر

Just two very close variants of basically the same Arabic name. First name for the Syrian. Family or patronymic name for the Sudani.
 
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