Iran

Jul 2016
1,349
Dengie Peninsula
Just added to the US list of "Rogue" states. US says they were responsible for Saudi bombings, but I willing to believe that Iran gave the Yemenis the Drones required. Saudi, possibly the richest country in the world , appear to have the worst defence force. Are we heading for a full scale war?
This is a current event and likely to have repercussions. If the Gulf gets shut off with a war, The US will be obliged to release more oil in order to stabilize the market, Venezuela is off the map at present so I have just bought a horse and cart.
 
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MG1962a

Ad Honorem
Mar 2019
2,176
Kansas
Just added to the US list of "Rogue" states. US says they were responsible for Saudi bombings, but I willing to believe that Iran gave the Yemenis the Drones required. Saudi, possibly the richest country in the world , appear to have the worst defence force. Are we heading for a full scale war?
This is a current event and likely to have repercussions. If the Gulf gets shut off with a war, The US will be obliged to release more oil in order to stabilize the market, Venezuela is off the map at present so I have just bought a horse and cart.
Personally I would like to see the evidence, the US and others have about the source of these drones.

Also would love to see what is believed to be the motivation for Iran to orchestrate this and the bombed ships recently. I am no lover of Iran, but getting your head around the why can assist is understanding the how
 
Mar 2012
1,211
Magdeburg
Saudis are joke, with all the arsenal they bought , they just seem to be using them like toys. The country has no military spirit and an open war against Iran would be their doom, and daddy US' intervention would bring definetely Russia and possibly China in the game.

They should just leave yemen alone and get rid of all their salafist/jihadist exports and financing.
 
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Nemowork

Ad Honorem
Jan 2011
8,483
South of the barcodes
They big problem is small drones, to take them down you need either radio signal blocking, small fast missiles or a gun based rapid firepower system like Pantsir.

All of these are expensive and technical to run and the Saudis have an appallingly bad reputation for training their troops in technical equipment. The second problem is that you would need to set these systems in a perimeter around every facility, far enough away that trigger happy and badly trained crewmen dont shoot up their own refinery but close enough that they can maintain a perimeter which means several vehicles per refinery.

The Saudis dont have enough trained crewmen who could sit round all day doing nothing till three years down the line the Houthis launch another attack, by which time the vehicles will have rusted into the sand, because the Saudis dont have good technicians.

Say each vehicle costs $13 million and you need four for each refinery, port facility or whatever plus training and ammunition costs plus maintenance we're talking hundreds of millions for a system that probably doesnt work on the day because the gunners are lazy, incompetent or the system isnt working that can be defeated by missiles swarms that cost $1000 dollars each.

IS were doing quite well using shop bought RC planes fitted with hand grenades after all.
 

Naomasa298

Forum Staff
Apr 2010
35,464
T'Republic of Yorkshire
They big problem is small drones, to take them down you need either radio signal blocking, small fast missiles or a gun based rapid firepower system like Pantsir.

All of these are expensive and technical to run and the Saudis have an appallingly bad reputation for training their troops in technical equipment. The second problem is that you would need to set these systems in a perimeter around every facility, far enough away that trigger happy and badly trained crewmen dont shoot up their own refinery but close enough that they can maintain a perimeter which means several vehicles per refinery.

The Saudis dont have enough trained crewmen who could sit round all day doing nothing till three years down the line the Houthis launch another attack, by which time the vehicles will have rusted into the sand, because the Saudis dont have good technicians.

Say each vehicle costs $13 million and you need four for each refinery, port facility or whatever plus training and ammunition costs plus maintenance we're talking hundreds of millions for a system that probably doesnt work on the day because the gunners are lazy, incompetent or the system isnt working that can be defeated by missiles swarms that cost $1000 dollars each.

IS were doing quite well using shop bought RC planes fitted with hand grenades after all.
They don't need them around every facility. Just this one.

Abqaiq is responsible for about 5% of global oil supplies. The damage has reduced their oil production capacity by half. It is not just any oil refinery, it is *the* key facility in Saudi Arabia.
 

tomar

Ad Honoris
Jan 2011
14,049
They big problem is small drones, to take them down you need either radio signal blocking, small fast missiles or a gun based rapid firepower system like Pantsir.

All of these are expensive and technical to run and the Saudis have an appallingly bad reputation for training their troops in technical equipment. The second problem is that you would need to set these systems in a perimeter around every facility, far enough away that trigger happy and badly trained crewmen dont shoot up their own refinery but close enough that they can maintain a perimeter which means several vehicles per refinery.

The Saudis dont have enough trained crewmen who could sit round all day doing nothing till three years down the line the Houthis launch another attack, by which time the vehicles will have rusted into the sand, because the Saudis dont have good technicians.

Say each vehicle costs $13 million and you need four for each refinery, port facility or whatever plus training and ammunition costs plus maintenance we're talking hundreds of millions for a system that probably doesnt work on the day because the gunners are lazy, incompetent or the system isnt working that can be defeated by missiles swarms that cost $1000 dollars each.

IS were doing quite well using shop bought RC planes fitted with hand grenades after all.
The thing with drones and Saudi is that Saudi is quite a large country and not very populous..... They have quite a lot of Oil facilities and oil pipelines.... which are probably near impossible to protect (these oil facilities are huge and the pipelines cover thousands of kilometers)

I was actually surprised that no one had yet attempted a massive sabotage of pipelines (creating a chain explosion), or of oil facitlities... Well now it has happened....

The US will now probably deploy some air defense and air units in Saudi proper (and make the saudis pay for them)

The extent of the damage is surprising though... As I can remember the allied bombings of Ploesti (using hundreds of heavy bombers) were not that effective....
 

Tulius

Ad Honorem
May 2016
6,129
Portugal
They don't need them around every facility. Just this one.

Abqaiq is responsible for about 5% of global oil supplies. The damage has reduced their oil production capacity by half. It is not just any oil refinery, it is *the* key facility in Saudi Arabia.
That doesn't invalidate Nemowork's reasoning.
 

janusdviveidis

Ad Honorem
Mar 2014
2,008
Lithuania
They big problem is small drones, to take them down you need either radio signal blocking, small fast missiles or a gun based rapid firepower system like Pantsir.

All of these are expensive and technical to run and the Saudis have an appallingly bad reputation for training their troops in technical equipment. The second problem is that you would need to set these systems in a perimeter around every facility, far enough away that trigger happy and badly trained crewmen dont shoot up their own refinery but close enough that they can maintain a perimeter which means several vehicles per refinery.

The Saudis dont have enough trained crewmen who could sit round all day doing nothing till three years down the line the Houthis launch another attack, by which time the vehicles will have rusted into the sand, because the Saudis dont have good technicians.

Say each vehicle costs $13 million and you need four for each refinery, port facility or whatever plus training and ammunition costs plus maintenance we're talking hundreds of millions for a system that probably doesnt work on the day because the gunners are lazy, incompetent or the system isnt working that can be defeated by missiles swarms that cost $1000 dollars each.

IS were doing quite well using shop bought RC planes fitted with hand grenades after all.
They should outsource defense of refineries to Israel, those guys have plenty of experience with variety of flying bombs.
 

tomar

Ad Honoris
Jan 2011
14,049
Personally I would like to see the evidence, the US and others have about the source of these drones.

Also would love to see what is believed to be the motivation for Iran to orchestrate this and the bombed ships recently. I am no lover of Iran, but getting your head around the why can assist is understanding the how
probably made in China and bought at wallmart ;)

I could definitely see a "message" being sent from Iran with this. As in "your sanctions keep us from exporting oil, we can lower saudi oil exports if we want to... consider this a warning"

The US of course could respond by destroying an iranian oil facility..... Which will probably lead to escalation

At the end of the day no evidence will be provided either way and it is going to be a case of "he said, she said"
 

Naomasa298

Forum Staff
Apr 2010
35,464
T'Republic of Yorkshire
That doesn't invalidate Nemowork's reasoning.
His reasoning is that Saudi needs them around all its facilities.

Clearly, it does not, since all the other facilities account for a smaller proportion of their production.