Is Israel going to see a lot more emigration once it becomes more and more overpopulated?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
15,691
SoCal
#1
Israel is currently experiencing a population explosion as a result of the rising total fertility rate of Israeli Jews--which increased from 2.62 to 3.16 children per woman per lifetime over the last 25 years. Israel is a very small country and thus doesn't have that much available space to settle. True, it could make better use of the Negev Desert--especially if it is able to make it greener and bring a lot of water over there--but even with the Negev and Galilee, Israel is going to eventually run out of room for its growing population. Israel is the size of New Jersey and thus there is only so many people that it could sustain.

Anyway, once Israel becomes too overcrowded, are we going to see a lot more emigration from Israel? If so, where are Israelis going to move to? The US? Canada? Australia? Somewhere in Europe--and if so, where?
 
Likes: arkteia
Apr 2017
983
U.S.A.
#2
Modern technology (of which Israel contributes to) is good at solving problems as they arise. If they run out of space to build on, they can build up (high buildings) or more efficiently (like the Dutch). Potentially they could also annex more land from the west bank (it would be controversial but possible). Running out of resources is a more realistic threat. If their population grows to, say 30 million, then they will have significant problems. By then Israel would be completely reliant on importing materials, food and would have exhausted all natural water supplies (requiring desalination, which isn't very practical).
 
Likes: Futurist

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
15,691
SoCal
#3
Modern technology (of which Israel contributes to) is good at solving problems as they arise. If they run out of space to build on, they can build up (high buildings) or more efficiently (like the Dutch). Potentially they could also annex more land from the west bank (it would be controversial but possible). Running out of resources is a more realistic threat. If their population grows to, say 30 million, then they will have significant problems. By then Israel would be completely reliant on importing materials, food and would have exhausted all natural water supplies (requiring desalination, which isn't very practical).
So, what happens if Israel's population reaches 30 million and continues growing rapidly?
 
Feb 2019
88
Mumbai
#4
So, what happens if Israel's population reaches 30 million and continues growing rapidly?
A large reason for rise in Israels population is the unusually high rate of Jewish TFR. Israel has one of the highest birthrates in the developed world and it is solely because Jews do not want to be overtaken demographically by Arabs. Even amongst Jews, orthodox Jews have a ridiculously high TFR. Now Israel has done a great job in turning desert to farmland, I believe they can manage in terms of food, though same cannot be said for other resources.
 
Likes: Futurist
Aug 2014
181
New York, USA
#5
So, what happens if Israel's population reaches 30 million and continues growing rapidly?
Israel already uses water desalination (I think around ~20% of Israeli water supply). A lot of these are solar powered too. In fact, if they could trade, Israel would be exporting fresh water to Syria and Jordan during droughts, as Israel makes excess potable fresh water.
By the time population reaches 30 million, they will make the desert bloom from Negev aquifers and big desal plants at Eliat. Lack of natural resources is not a problem, since the only natural resource Israelis got is sand anyway... Israeli economy is based on exporting value-added goods, and importing all required natural resources.

Most of these overpopulation concerns can be solved by throwing $$$ and technology at the problem, and Israelis have no shortage of both.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
15,691
SoCal
#6
Israel already uses water desalination (I think around ~20% of Israeli water supply). A lot of these are solar powered too.
By the time population reaches 30 million, they will make the desert bloom from Negev aquifers and big desal plants at Eliat. Lack of natural resources is not a problem, since the only natural resource Israelis got is sand anyway... Israeli economy is based on exporting value-added goods, and importing all required natural resources.

Most of these overpopulation concerns can be solved by throwing $$$ and technology at the problem, and Israelis have no shortage of both.
So, do you think that Israel could actually sustain a population of 100 million people?
 
Apr 2017
983
U.S.A.
#7
So, what happens if Israel's population reaches 30 million and continues growing rapidly?
Technology will continue to solve the problem (in the 70's they predicted we would run out of oil in fifty years but were still going strong). However, when it comes to steel, oil and other resources you have to dig out of the ground, they will have to import them. This could leave Israel in danger if some foreign power can threaten this supply. Although, who know? Maybe they will switch to hydrogen fuel cells and create artificial steel.
 
Likes: Futurist
Aug 2014
181
New York, USA
#8
So, do you think that Israel could actually sustain a population of 100 million people?
TFR of 3 is not "ridiculously high". It is only high by our modern first world standards. By the time Israel reaches 100 million (if ever), there will probably be more Jews living on the Moon and Mars...
As it is, the total world Jewish population is only 14 million... on the whole planet.
 
Likes: macon

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
15,691
SoCal
#9
TFR of 3 is not "ridiculously high". It is only high by our modern first world standards. By the time Israel reaches 100 million (if ever), there will probably be more Jews living on the Moon and Mars...
As it is, the total world Jewish population is only 14 million... on the whole planet.
I suspect that space colonization is a lot harder than you think it is.

Also, Yes, there are relatively few Jews worldwide. In turn, this raises the question--where are Israel's surplus Jews going to move to?