Is Israel going to see a lot more emigration once it becomes more and more overpopulated?

starman

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The Palestinians are going to need to do something really crazy for Israel to even consider doing this. The Second Intifada certainly wasn't enough. It's going to need to be 10 or even 100 times more deadly! :(
Not necessarily. True there would have to be some pretext involving loss of Israeli life. But the key difference between now and the intifada is the more hardline Israeli government and perhaps even more importantly, the perception that the US has abandoned even handedness and now sides fully with Israel on everything. Under those circumstances Israel thinks it can get away with much more than in the past, which is almost certainly true.
 
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Futurist

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I don't think that Sharon's government was much less hardline than Netanyahu's government. True, Sharon did withdraw from Gaza, but Gaza was a demographic time bomb and there were few Jews living there.

It's possible that Sharon would have evolved and become more conciliatory had he not had his stroke, but I don't know if we will ever know this for certain.

You do have a good point about Israel being capable of getting away with more now than in the early 2000s, though. Still, this is unlikely to last. After all, Democrats certainly aren't going to be as pro-Israel as Trump is.
 

starman

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The Democrats may not be as pro Israel as Trump, and it is reasonable to suppose there will be a Democratic administration after 2020. But both parties are beholden to pro Israel voters and financiers, and it would be hard to reverse what Trump has done.
 

Futurist

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I certainly don't expect a reversal of Trump's Israel-related decisions (with the exception of the Iran nuclear deal, which I expect the Dems to return to), but that's certainly an extremely far cry from expelling the Palestinians en masse!
 

starman

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I certainly don't expect a reversal of Trump's Israel-related decisions (with the exception of the Iran nuclear deal, which I expect the Dems to return to), but that's certainly an extremely far cry from expelling the Palestinians en masse!
But recent US moves have, I believe, given Israel the impression it can do anything. To give its backers a case, and minimize the US reaction, the Israelis would wait for a pretext. It’s certain they’ll get it, since the Palestinians now have virtually no hope for a decent negotiated settlement, hence may resort to mass demonstrations and violence on the West Bank.
 

Futurist

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But recent US moves have, I believe, given Israel the impression it can do anything. To give its backers a case, and minimize the US reaction, the Israelis would wait for a pretext. It’s certain they’ll get it, since the Palestinians now have virtually no hope for a decent negotiated settlement, hence may resort to mass demonstrations and violence on the West Bank.
While it's not completely out of the question that Israel could feel that it could do anything under a Trump or similar administration, this viewpoint does not extend to Democratic administrations. Israelis are certainly going to be aware that they're not going to be capable of doing anything under a Democratic administration regardless of what pretext they will get.
 

starman

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While it's not completely out of the question that Israel could feel that it could do anything under a Trump or similar administration, this viewpoint does not extend to Democratic administrations. Israelis are certainly going to be aware that they're not going to be capable of doing anything under a Democratic administration regardless of what pretext they will get.
I think that underestimates the power of Israel’s supporters here. Democrats are often beholden to them too.
 
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While it's not completely out of the question that Israel could feel that it could do anything under a Trump or similar administration, this viewpoint does not extend to Democratic administrations. Israelis are certainly going to be aware that they're not going to be capable of doing anything under a Democratic administration regardless of what pretext they will get.
I don't agree. President Obama communicated certain demands (put as polite requests) such as not extending settlements, but Israel just ignored him and went ahead (perhaps a little more slowly than otherwise). Would they ever evict Palestinians en masse? Well, with house demolitions and land-stealing, and openly-stated views of some settlers that the Palestinians properly belong in Jordan etc., the mentality is there. But would they actually carry out expulsions? I think it is unlikely, but there again, if there was another intafada, I wouldn't be very surprised if a very right-wing Israeli coalition government would authorise beginning to expel Palestinians. Any sanctions a Democrat regime imposed would be ignored.
 
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Futurist

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I don't agree. President Obama communicated certain demands (put as polite requests) such as not extending settlements, but Israel just ignored him and went ahead (perhaps a little more slowly than otherwise). Would they ever evict Palestinians en masse? Well, with house demolitions and land-stealing, and openly-stated views of some settlers that the Palestinians properly belong in Jordan etc., the mentality is there. But would they actually carry out expulsions? I think it is unlikely, but there again, if there was another intafada, I wouldn't be very surprised if a very right-wing Israeli coalition government would authorise beginning to expel Palestinians. Any sanctions a Democrat regime imposed would be ignored.
In regards to settlements, Israel actually did agree to a ten-month settlement freeze in 2009-2010. IMHO, Obama shot himself in the foot by insisting that Israel not expand any settlements; he should have made an exception for expansion of existing Israeli settlements in the large settlement blocs since that would have made his demand easier for Israel to swallow.

I do agree with the rest of your analysis here, though. Still, if Israeli right-wingers are going to attempt something like this, they are going to need to do this extremely slowly. I don't think that the Israeli public would actually be willing to tolerate massive international sanctions--though maybe I am wrong in regards to this considering that Russia has been able to tolerate sanctions quite well.

The great irony is that had Israel expelled a lot of the Palestinians of the West Bank back in 1949 after capturing the West Bank (if it would have indeed done so in this scenario, that is), then in all likelihood the international community wouldn't have cared that much about this.