Is South Vietnam survived, how developed would it be economically?

Nov 2014
472
ph
If South Vietnam did not fall in 1975, what will be its per capita GDP level? My best guess was that it would be at the same level as Indonesia or the Philippines, basically not as developed as Thailand, but much richer than modern day Vietnam or Cambodia, due to the effects of the war causing it fall behind Thailand, but not being under communism and its economic policy effects causing to be richer than North Vietnam is. SV's industrial production expanded by an average of 6.9 percent annually between 1954 and 1973, and electricity output rose by 14 fold, while rice production grew by a factor of 3, so with continued US support after 1973, it would have done a lot better than Vietnam's economy did in OTL.
 

MG1962a

Ad Honorem
Mar 2019
2,401
Kansas
If South Vietnam did not fall in 1975, what will be its per capita GDP level? My best guess was that it would be at the same level as Indonesia or the Philippines, basically not as developed as Thailand, but much richer than modern day Vietnam or Cambodia, due to the effects of the war causing it fall behind Thailand, but not being under communism and its economic policy effects causing to be richer than North Vietnam is. SV's industrial production expanded by an average of 6.9 percent annually between 1954 and 1973, and electricity output rose by 14 fold, while rice production grew by a factor of 3, so with continued US support after 1973, it would have done a lot better than Vietnam's economy did in OTL.
I think you might see something mid way between Thailand and South Korea.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,783
SoCal
Yeah its hard to extrapolate 45 odd years. At the time I recall South Vietnam having a strong developing economy, courtesy of strong US sponsorship.
It was also very corrupt and had to deal with a continuous threat from North Vietnam, no?
 

Naomasa298

Forum Staff
Apr 2010
35,953
T'Republic of Yorkshire
It was also very corrupt and had to deal with a continuous threat from North Vietnam, no?
South Korea has had to deal with a continuous thread from North Korea.

Just remember this - in the 80s, South Korea was much closer to South East Asia in terms of development than what it is now. The authoritarian South Korean government took a radical decision to change the direction of economic development and co-opt the chaebols into their program, which made rapid development into a high tech economy possible.

South Vietnam didn't have a particularly strong government, which is a prerequisite for economic growth. I suspect, given that fact, South Vietnam would be closer to the Philippines than Thailand.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,783
SoCal
South Korea has had to deal with a continuous thread from North Korea.
Yes, but it didn't have to worry about a North Korean insurgency. In other words, NK's threat to SK was purely conventional. In contrast, SV did have to worry about an NV insurgency.

One could argue that conventional wars are easier to fight than fighting against insurgencies is due to the fact that conventional wars are more predictable.

Just remember this - in the 80s, South Korea was much closer to South East Asia in terms of development than what it is now. The authoritarian South Korean government took a radical decision to change the direction of economic development and co-opt the chaebols into their program, which made rapid development into a high tech economy possible.
What did the chaebols do before the 1980s?

South Vietnam didn't have a particularly strong government, which is a prerequisite for economic growth. I suspect, given that fact, South Vietnam would be closer to the Philippines than Thailand.
Is Thailand's government strong while the Philippines's government is weak?
 

MG1962a

Ad Honorem
Mar 2019
2,401
Kansas
Is Thailand's government strong while the Philippines's government is weak?
Take your pick - Philippines is currently run by a certifiable lunatic. Makes Donald Trump look like Bernie Saunders.

And Thailand just ended five years of military rule.
 

Naomasa298

Forum Staff
Apr 2010
35,953
T'Republic of Yorkshire
Yes, but it didn't have to worry about a North Korean insurgency. In other words, NK's threat to SK was purely conventional. In contrast, SV did have to worry about an NV insurgency.

One could argue that conventional wars are easier to fight than fighting against insurgencies is due to the fact that conventional wars are more predictable.
The latter stages of the Vietnam War were conventional.

What did the chaebols do before the 1980s?
Anything they wanted. The point was, they were not pulling in a single economic direction.

Is Thailand's government strong while the Philippines's government is weak?
Compared to the Philippines, yes, and Thailand didn't end up with a corrupt dictator like Marcos, although it's certainly had corruption problems of its own, and continues to have, to this day.
 
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