Is technological growth currently stagnating?

Oct 2013
6,390
Planet Nine, Oregon
#11
It is EXCEEDINGLY rapid. We are working on AI, space travel with private partnerships with Elon Musk and Robert Bigelow. The promise of 3D printing is just becoming realized. Genetic research isn't stagnating. 20 years ago we had bulky computers, now we have iPhones. Who knows what the government is working on. It even looks like the study of "UAPs" and further disclosure is imminent.
Whether or not we are mature enough to get through it without serious destruction is the real question. Even folks like Stephen Hawking are going around in circles flinging their hands in the air and making loud noises about it.
 

VHS

Ad Honorem
Dec 2015
4,537
Florania
#12
It is EXCEEDINGLY rapid. We are working on AI, space travel with private partnerships with Elon Musk and Robert Bigelow. The promise of 3D printing is just becoming realized. Genetic research isn't stagnating. 20 years ago we had bulky computers, now we have iPhones. Who knows what the government is working on. It even looks like the study of "UAPs" and further disclosure is imminent.
Whether or not we are mature enough to get through it without serious destruction is the real question. Even folks like Stephen Hawking are going around in circles flinging their hands in the air and making loud noises about it.
Desktop computers still have some features that are significantly superior to laptops, tablets, and smart phones.
For example, I prefer to type posts and writings and watching videos on desktop computers.
 

AlpinLuke

Forum Staff
Oct 2011
26,819
Italy, Lago Maggiore
#14
Substantially it's stagnating ...

if I think to how I lived when I was a little child ... I don't see differences now [a part communications, of course].

40 years ago, in 1977 planes were as fast as present planes, on highways cars were as fast as today [actually they were faster ... at least in Italy speed limits were higher!], there was the phone in the houses, the video tape recorder was appearing, color TV set was present ...

Compare, considering a similar gap, how was life in 1920 and 1960.

Well, I mean ... world was running, now world is slowing walking.
 
Oct 2013
6,390
Planet Nine, Oregon
#15
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Bart Dale

Ad Honorem
Dec 2009
7,095
#16
Substantially it's stagnating ...

if I think to how I lived when I was a little child ... I don't see differences now [a part communications, of course].

40 years ago, in 1977 planes were as fast as present planes, on highways cars were as fast as today [actually they were faster ... at least in Italy speed limits were higher!], there was the phone in the houses, the video tape recorder was appearing, color TV set was present ...

Compare, considering a similar gap, how was life in 1920 and 1960.

Well, I mean ... world was running, now world is slowing walking.
Technology goes through stages - new technology has rapid advance, then slowly advances. An axe today is probably not all that much better than a 1000 years ago, and a sword made by the best swordsmith in the middle ages is about as good as any made today.

Some of the technnology, such as smart phones, are perhaps maruring, but the are new technologies arising that we don't even notice. I came across an old Popular Science magazine from the 1970's talking about homes having LED lights - and you can now afford to buy LEd lights for your homes. Maybe not sexy, but it can have important implications. You can now arford a drone plane, and these drone are being used in all kinds of applications.

But today's smart cell phones are better than what you could get 10 years ago, and today'w flat screen tv are higher definition and lighter than what you could have gotten 15 years ago. To get 4 gb of portable memoey 15 years ago was expensive and bulkier, and in 1977 almost non one had a home computer. I have more information at my finger tips that I would have had in with an entire bookshelf of encyclopedias. Now, it may be technology overall is slowing down, but it is too soon to say.

The I think the biggest change was probably 1830 and 1870 - In 1830, fastest way you could get around was by horse, no trains to speak of, no telegraph, most people lin rural areas.

By 1870, you could take a train to and arrive in a day what took you a week before, you could travel across the Atlantic in a week what mighthave taken you a month before, you could send a message across the Atlantic in a day what took weeks before, infancy mortality was dropping significantly, repeating rifles and machine guns had appeared on the battlefield, as well as iron clad ships. Sailing ships, which had been the mainstain of transportation for thousands od years, were on their way out, and the size of ships dwarfed even Zheng He's treasure ships. And the majority of people, for the first time in history, stated to live in urban areas in the more advance countries. From the majority of people being farmers to factory and office workers is a revolutionary change, and that happeded largely by 1920.
 
Oct 2013
6,390
Planet Nine, Oregon
#17
Stephen Hawking going in circles and flailing arms again. See this IS progress...

Stephen Hawking AI Warning: Artificial Intelligence Could Destroy Civilization

"I fear that AI may replace humans altogether,” he told the magazine. “If people design computer viruses, someone will design AI that improves and replicates itself. This will be a new form of life that outperforms humans."
Even if AI does not take over the world, either by destroying or enslaving mankind, Hawking still believes human beings are doomed. Over recent years, he has become increasingly vocal about the need to leave Earth in search of a new planet to live on."
(read totally ruin, like earth).
 

AlpinLuke

Forum Staff
Oct 2011
26,819
Italy, Lago Maggiore
#18
Technology goes through stages - new technology has rapid advance, then slowly advances. An axe today is probably not all that much better than a 1000 years ago, and a sword made by the best swordsmith in the middle ages is about as good as any made today.

Some of the technnology, such as smart phones, are perhaps maruring, but the are new technologies arising that we don't even notice. I came across an old Popular Science magazine from the 1970's talking about homes having LED lights - and you can now afford to buy LEd lights for your homes. Maybe not sexy, but it can have important implications. You can now arford a drone plane, and these drone are being used in all kinds of applications.

But today's smart cell phones are better than what you could get 10 years ago, and today'w flat screen tv are higher definition and lighter than what you could have gotten 15 years ago. To get 4 gb of portable memoey 15 years ago was expensive and bulkier, and in 1977 almost non one had a home computer. I have more information at my finger tips that I would have had in with an entire bookshelf of encyclopedias. Now, it may be technology overall is slowing down, but it is too soon to say.

The I think the biggest change was probably 1830 and 1870 - In 1830, fastest way you could get around was by horse, no trains to speak of, no telegraph, most people lin rural areas.

By 1870, you could take a train to and arrive in a day what took you a week before, you could travel across the Atlantic in a week what mighthave taken you a month before, you could send a message across the Atlantic in a day what took weeks before, infancy mortality was dropping significantly, repeating rifles and machine guns had appeared on the battlefield, as well as iron clad ships. Sailing ships, which had been the mainstain of transportation for thousands od years, were on their way out, and the size of ships dwarfed even Zheng He's treasure ships. And the majority of people, for the first time in history, stated to live in urban areas in the more advance countries. From the majority of people being farmers to factory and office workers is a revolutionary change, and that happeded largely by 1920.
Don't confuse virtual life with real life.

It takes 24 hours to reach Australia from Italy. To make a call phone to Australia costed a lot ... now there is Whats... OK ... but it takes 24 hours to reach [physically] Australia from Italy.

It was the same in the 70's ...

What has been invented in the last 30 years which has improved the life of a common Italian?

Toilet paper existed 30 years ago!

Internet? Common Italians consider internet something exotic, an American invention [so something bad, like GMO ...].

I keep on saying that when I was a child I lived exactly like now. May be I was a very rich child, I don't know, but I don't see any real pragmatical advance [a part the virtual world of communication] from that far past.
 

M9Powell

Ad Honorem
Oct 2014
4,439
appalacian Mtns
#19
I remember as a child in the 1960s there was a tv show showing how common Americans would live in the year 2000. Nuclear energy was going too make cheap electricity for everyone, cars would be replaced by personal commuter fliers, everyone would have robot servents, we'd live to be 200 free of disease & illness. It was going to be like the cartoon the Jetsons. In reality here are the big changes I've seen. Doctors & Dentists can only be afforded by the wealthy or those poor enough that the government picks up the bill, fuel injection replaced carburetors, cars got smaller & uncomfortable, party line telephone replaced by a phone I carry in my pocket, weed eaters, affordable computers, the internet, DVDs & home theater, video games, no real improvement in aircraft, not much change in personal firearms except for laser rangefinding, the end of battleships, we went too the moon, rise of Arab terrorism, video cameras & surveillance everywhere, divorce becoming common instead of rare & AIDs.
 
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Nov 2017
69
New Jersey, USA
#20
I see at least three aspects of technological growth. The first I'll call techniques, which are ideas or discoveries like the engine, transistor, and CRISPR. The second I'll call designs, which implement these techniques in various combinations and sell these to a market. And the last aspect I'll call emphemeralization, which is in Buckminster Fuller's words, the ability to do "more and more with less and less until eventually you can do everything with nothing". Moore's law is an example of this.

If technological progress is stalling, it is in the area of design. Perhaps the last significant design innovation was the smartphone, and that was 10 years ago. I think part of the reason for this is simply that society is presently not very interested in investing in new designs. Tech was all the hype a decade ago. Now it seems to be all about politics.