Is the war of Afghanistan won by the "talibans" ?

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Closed
May 2017
1,155
France
Hello everybody and dear specialists.Actually,the president Trump is searching a solution to get out of Afghanistan,with a treaty with the "Afghans patriots" called "terrorists" after the 11th september 2001.Is it the demonstration of the impossibility to win against the "talibans" who continued to attack,in the purpose to be in position of force before the négociations ?
 
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aggienation

Ad Honorem
Jul 2016
9,738
USA
Unfortunately. We're still no closer to defeating the Taliban insurgency as we were since the resurgent threat started big time around 2006-7. The things we would need to do to achieve a COIN victory, which would encompass sending about 150,000 US troops to Afghanistan for hard combat for at least a decade, is not possible. We've had a token force in country since about 2013. No way Congress or the American public would authorize a gigantic surge of troops, and the Army and the Marines, who would be the ones fighting, definitely don't want to do it. Our NATO allies are basically tossing in the towel, they're done and want no part of any further fighting. The Afghan govt we're supporting is inefficient and has little control outside the cities, especially in the Pashtun areas (Taliban is largely a Pashtun Afghan group).

So what is supposed to happen?

I'll tell you what. We leave now. Just pull out and let everything happen. We pay off a bunch of people and give them radios and stuff and tell them to continuously report intelligence to us, in exchange at a set date we give them a duffel bag of money. We use that intel, along with satellites, drones, etc, to account for when the Taliban takes over. We find out their govt buildings, their supply depots, the homes of their leaders. We do nothing until January 10, 2021, when Trump orders a GIGANTIC airstrike against all of those targets.

We slaughter them. Just wreck everything. Kill untold people, and their families too. Send in SOF on helicopter raids to go and shoot some High Value Targets right in the face. Not because we need to, just because we can.

And then we leave, wiping our hands with Afghanistan. And if they ever get out of line again, we wont take over their country, we will just raid them again. And again. And again. Because we can do it a hundred times and it'll be cheaper than a single year doing COIN there.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,720
SoCal
Unfortunately. We're still no closer to defeating the Taliban insurgency as we were since the resurgent threat started big time around 2006-7. The things we would need to do to achieve a COIN victory, which would encompass sending about 150,000 US troops to Afghanistan for hard combat for at least a decade, is not possible. We've had a token force in country since about 2013. No way Congress or the American public would authorize a gigantic surge of troops, and the Army and the Marines, who would be the ones fighting, definitely don't want to do it. Our NATO allies are basically tossing in the towel, they're done and want no part of any further fighting. The Afghan govt we're supporting is inefficient and has little control outside the cities, especially in the Pashtun areas (Taliban is largely a Pashtun Afghan group).

So what is supposed to happen?

I'll tell you what. We leave now. Just pull out and let everything happen. We pay off a bunch of people and give them radios and stuff and tell them to continuously report intelligence to us, in exchange at a set date we give them a duffel bag of money. We use that intel, along with satellites, drones, etc, to account for when the Taliban takes over. We find out their govt buildings, their supply depots, the homes of their leaders. We do nothing until January 10, 2021, when Trump orders a GIGANTIC airstrike against all of those targets.

We slaughter them. Just wreck everything. Kill untold people, and their families too. Send in SOF on helicopter raids to go and shoot some High Value Targets right in the face. Not because we need to, just because we can.

And then we leave, wiping our hands with Afghanistan. And if they ever get out of line again, we wont take over their country, we will just raid them again. And again. And again. Because we can do it a hundred times and it'll be cheaper than a single year doing COIN there.
That's actually a pretty good strategy. :)

Would you have advocated doing the same thing with ISIS in Iraq and Syria? Or was the existing strategy for defeating ISIS there good enough, in your honest opinion?
 
Jul 2019
592
New Jersey
That's actually a pretty good strategy. :)

Would you have advocated doing the same thing with ISIS in Iraq and Syria? Or was the existing strategy for defeating ISIS there good enough, in your honest opinion?
ISIS will be back. That Sunni resentment hasn't gone anywhere, even if it's been temporarily defeated. Same goes for Afghanistan. Unless the Pashtun are wiped out, the Taliban will remain. It's best to just mow the lawn on occasion (much like how Israel deals with Hamas).
 
May 2017
1,155
France
How is it possible to accept to be defeated by those medieval barbarians ? Has Occident the real conscience of what can be the international conséquences of this capitulation in the future ?
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,720
SoCal
ISIS will be back. That Sunni resentment hasn't gone anywhere, even if it's been temporarily defeated. Same goes for Afghanistan. Unless the Pashtun are wiped out, the Taliban will remain. It's best to just mow the lawn on occasion (much like how Israel deals with Hamas).
AFAIK, post-2014 Iraqi governments have tried to be more inclusive in regards to Iraqi Sunni Arabs in comparison to the Maliki government was. We'll see if this is going to be enough. That said, though, Iraq is extremely unlikely to get caught with its pants down like it was back in 2014.

As for the Taliban, it might help that they have a safe haven in Pakistan.
 

Dreamhunter

Ad Honorem
Jun 2012
7,482
Malaysia
Unfortunately. We're still no closer to defeating the Taliban insurgency as we were since the resurgent threat started big time around 2006-7. The things we would need to do to achieve a COIN victory, which would encompass sending about 150,000 US troops to Afghanistan for hard combat for at least a decade, is not possible. We've had a token force in country since about 2013. No way Congress or the American public would authorize a gigantic surge of troops, and the Army and the Marines, who would be the ones fighting, definitely don't want to do it. Our NATO allies are basically tossing in the towel, they're done and want no part of any further fighting. The Afghan govt we're supporting is inefficient and has little control outside the cities, especially in the Pashtun areas (Taliban is largely a Pashtun Afghan group).

So what is supposed to happen?

I'll tell you what. We leave now. Just pull out and let everything happen. We pay off a bunch of people and give them radios and stuff and tell them to continuously report intelligence to us, in exchange at a set date we give them a duffel bag of money. We use that intel, along with satellites, drones, etc, to account for when the Taliban takes over. We find out their govt buildings, their supply depots, the homes of their leaders. We do nothing until January 10, 2021, when Trump orders a GIGANTIC airstrike against all of those targets.

We slaughter them. Just wreck everything. Kill untold people, and their families too. Send in SOF on helicopter raids to go and shoot some High Value Targets right in the face. Not because we need to, just because we can.

And then we leave, wiping our hands with Afghanistan. And if they ever get out of line again, we wont take over their country, we will just raid them again. And again. And again. Because we can do it a hundred times and it'll be cheaper than a single year doing COIN there.
This is crude, naked & blatant war mongering. It is just not on, man. On a military forum, could just be borderline acceptable. But definitely not on a forum like Historum.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,720
SoCal
How is it possible to accept to be defeated by those medieval barbarians ? Has Occident the real conscience of what can be the international conséquences of this capitulation in the future ?
Trump did say that he can win in Afghanistan--but at the cost of millions of lives. Thankfully, nowadays such extreme brutality in order to win a war is unacceptable--at least by the West.
 
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