Israel annexes the Jordan Valley and Dead Sea Valley

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
14,134
SoCal
#1
What if Israel would have created a Palestinian state in the orange territories on this map but annexed both the Jordan Valley (minus Jericho and the surrounding area) and the Dead Sea Valley? :



Such a Palestinian state would have territorial contiguity--which is certainly a plus in comparison to the status quo. However, it would be deprived of living space in the Jordan Valley and Dead Sea Valley and also be deprived of the agricultural land and natural resources in these territories.

All of the Palestinian Arabs living in the Jordan Valley and Dead Sea Valley are going to get either Israeli permanent residency (like East Jerusalem Arabs) or Israeli citizenship in this scenario.

How many additional Israelis are going to be willing to settle in the Jordan Valley and Dead Sea Valley in this scenario?

Also, how much pressure is the international community going to put on Israel to withdraw from these territories?
 

pugsville

Ad Honorem
Oct 2010
8,291
#2
Why would Palestinains accept such a prison. Without control of their borders they have nothing,

Why would Israel take such a precipitate step. the Create plan of creeping annexation by stealth and thousand cuts is working perfectly.,
 

starman

Ad Honorem
Jan 2014
3,828
Connecticut
#3
Why would Palestinains accept such a prison. Without control of their borders they have nothing,
Right.

Why would Israel take such a precipitate step. the Create plan of creeping annexation by stealth and thousand cuts is working perfectly.,
If they really had their way they’d throw out the Palestinians in one fell swoop. This could still happen as Trump, or perhaps any US “leader” nowadays, would let them get away with almost anything. All they’ll need is a good enough pretext.
 
Apr 2017
759
U.S.A.
#4
The Palestinians wouldn't accept it. In 1999 Israel (under heavy pressure by Bill Clinton) offered the Palestinians the gaza strip, most of the west bank and even part of east Jerusalem (about 97% of what the wanted) but Yasser Arafat turned it down. If they wouldn't accept that deal, they won't accept anything less.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
14,134
SoCal
#5
Why would Palestinains accept such a prison. Without control of their borders they have nothing,
They wouldn't; rather, Israel simply isn't going to offer them a better deal than this in this scenario.

Why would Israel take such a precipitate step. the Create plan of creeping annexation by stealth and thousand cuts is working perfectly.,
This could be done in 50 years as opposed to right now.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
14,134
SoCal
#6
The Palestinians wouldn't accept it. In 1999 Israel (under heavy pressure by Bill Clinton) offered the Palestinians the gaza strip, most of the west bank and even part of east Jerusalem (about 97% of what the wanted) but Yasser Arafat turned it down. If they wouldn't accept that deal, they won't accept anything less.
Yes, which is why, in this scenario, Israel is going to force it on the Palestinians. Sure, they'll claim the territories that Israel annexed, but no one is actually going to have the strength and/or the will to actually push Israel out of these territories.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
14,134
SoCal
#7
If they really had their way they’d throw out the Palestinians in one fell swoop. This could still happen as Trump, or perhaps any US “leader” nowadays, would let them get away with almost anything. All they’ll need is a good enough pretext.
If Israel wanted to do that, they'd have probably captured the West Bank in 1949 and then done it. Still, there was a better solution--specifically annex the southern West Bank in 1949 and give the Arabs there (the ones who didn't flee) Israeli citizenship while letting Jordan have the northern West Bank. Nowadays it's too late for this solution, though.
 
Apr 2017
759
U.S.A.
#8
Yes, which is why, in this scenario, Israel is going to force it on the Palestinians. Sure, they'll claim the territories that Israel annexed, but no one is actually going to have the strength and/or the will to actually push Israel out of these territories.
Assuming this happens in the near future, where Israel unanimously forces the Palestinians to form a lesser state, by being independent it would enable them to form alliances with other states. This could mean they could form an alliance with Iran, who already has significant influence in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. All it would take is a coup in Jordan and Israel would be almost surrounded by Iran and its proxies (as well as Hamas in the gaza strip). Israel has faced worse odds but you don't go out of your way for bad situations.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
14,134
SoCal
#9
Assuming this happens in the near future, where Israel unanimously forces the Palestinians to form a lesser state, by being independent it would enable them to form alliances with other states. This could mean they could form an alliance with Iran, who already has significant influence in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. All it would take is a coup in Jordan and Israel would be almost surrounded by Iran and its proxies (as well as Hamas in the gaza strip). Israel has faced worse odds but you don't go out of your way for bad situations.
A Jordan-Iran alliance would be interesting but potentially difficult since any regime which replaces the Hashemites in Jordan could be Sunni fundamentalist while Iran is Shia fundamentalist.
 

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