Japan Actually plans the invasion of China.

Nov 2017
557
Guadalajara
OTL China was invaded against the will of the government and HQ by rogue officers who started it in the worst possible way, from the Manchurian border. This allowed Chiang and the Communists time to mobilize, deploy, recruit and after being trounced repeatedly, withdraw for years.
The invasion also took part at the worst possible time. Chiang was undertaking a strong campaign to wipe out the Communists (which eventually fought Japan more effectively than Chiang, but were quite weak in 1937). The IJN did not start invading ports at the outset.


ATL Japan does not reinforce and supply the attacking officers' troops. They have to puoll out. Japan apologizes to chiang and offers air support to wipe out the Communists as compensation.

Chiang finishes off the Communists with IJA help in 1937.

In April 1938 a huge Japanese fleet performs landings throughout Chinese ports. Japan advances rapidly, seizing the few RR at several points, Chiang cannot withdraw and he has no time to replace heavy losses by recruitment and training, to receive Soviet armament and munitions, etc, Japan does not have to fight the Communists.
Strong forces advance also from Manchuria to seize critiacl Wuhan, which Chiang cannot reinforce in time, since he is fighting all along the coast and the RR lines are blocked in several places.
 

zincwarrior

Ad Honorem
Jun 2012
5,713
Texas
How come you're not positing the scenario that China successfully nationalizes and invades Japan instead?
 

Fiver

Ad Honorem
Jul 2012
3,776
ATL Japan does not reinforce and supply the attacking officers' troops. They have to puoll out. Japan apologizes to chiang and offers air support to wipe out the Communists as compensation.
Period Japanese political leaders who did not support the military tended to be assassinated. Plus, once they had seized territory, it would have been loss of face for Japanese leaders to order withdrawal. It would have been worse loss of face to apologize, any period Japanese leader would have resigned rather than do so.

You provide no reason that Japan would offer to aid Chiang against the Communists - the Japanese would gain nothing from spending time, money, and lives to do so. In addition, Chiang would probably reject the Japanese offer - he would have no reason to trust the Japanese and the Communists would be able to portray him as a traitor to China.

Chiang finishes off the Communists with IJA help in 1937.
OTL's performance by the Chinese Communists shows that this is wildly optimistic.

CIn April 1938 a huge Japanese fleet performs landings throughout Chinese ports. Japan advances rapidly, seizing the few RR at several points, Chiang cannot withdraw and he has no time to replace heavy losses by recruitment and training, to receive Soviet armament and munitions, etc, Japan does not have to fight the Communists.
This betrayal would destroy Chiang and result in a united Chinese resistance to the Japanese, likely under a Communist resurgence. In OTL, Japan had bogged down fighting a divided China. Now the Japanese would be facing a united China, a vastly harder task. In addition, Japan's betrayal of Chiang would guarantee no one trusts them, and likely result in embargoes of raw materials worse than any Japan faced in OTL.