Jewish migration within Russia w/o Communism & Holocaust?

Apr 2017
1,751
U.S.A.
Just how high do you think that the Jewish population within the territories that make up Russia's current borders in real life would have reached in this scenario? In real life, it went from 250,000 to 891,000 between 1897 and 1939 and then experienced a very sharp decline starting from 1959 (when it was 880,000, or just slightly below the 1939 levels):

Its hard to estimate, so many variables. Depends what kind of government is in Russia, if/how ww2 happens and how Israel is established.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,676
SoCal
Its hard to estimate, so many variables. Depends what kind of government is in Russia,
A democratic one until the 1920s or 1930s when it is replaced by a right-wing dictatorship. Eventually democracy might return to Russia, but probably not at least for an additional couple of decades.

if/how ww2 happens
If Hitler still comes to power in Germany in this scenario and still speaks WWII, then Nazi Germany is likely to experience a quick defeat since there's going to be a Franco-Anglo-Russian alliance against the Nazis from the very beginning. Also, WWII might start over Czechoslovakia rather than over Poland in this scenario.

and how Israel is established.
Whether or not Israel will eventually be established in this scenario might depend on just how many Jews will move there and just how organized and rebellious these Jews are actually going to be.
 
Apr 2017
1,751
U.S.A.
A democratic one until the 1920s or 1930s when it is replaced by a right-wing dictatorship. Eventually democracy might return to Russia, but probably not at least for an additional couple of decades.



If Hitler still comes to power in Germany in this scenario and still speaks WWII, then Nazi Germany is likely to experience a quick defeat since there's going to be a Franco-Anglo-Russian alliance against the Nazis from the very beginning. Also, WWII might start over Czechoslovakia rather than over Poland in this scenario.



Whether or not Israel will eventually be established in this scenario might depend on just how many Jews will move there and just how organized and rebellious these Jews are actually going to be.
Given this information, I would guess the jewish population in Russia would only be slightly higher, if higher at all. The article you cite indicates the primary reason for the jewish population decrease was drop in birthrate, assimilation and high mortality. I don't see this alternate Russia changing these things significantly. A quick ww2 may not trigger the jewish migration from the pale to Russia (which made up for some of the losses in ww2), so maybe a slightly larger population but probably not significant.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,676
SoCal
Given this information, I would guess the jewish population in Russia would only be slightly higher, if higher at all. The article you cite indicates the primary reason for the jewish population decrease was drop in birthrate, assimilation and high mortality. I don't see this alternate Russia changing these things significantly. A quick ww2 may not trigger the jewish migration from the pale to Russia (which made up for some of the losses in ww2), so maybe a slightly larger population but probably not significant.
Please keep in mind that most of the Jewish migration from the Pale to Russia already occurred by 1941. You can see this by comparing the 1897 and 1939 Jewish population figures for all of Russia, Moscow, and St. Petersburg. Also, please keep in mind that the Holocaust reduced the Pale's Jewish population by a lot considering that over 2.5 million Pale Jews were murdered in the Holocaust while only slightly more than 1 million Pale Jews managed to survive the Holocaust by successfully evacuating to the interior of the Soviet Union in 1941-1942. Of those who were evacuated during this time, most (but certainly not all) returned to the Pale after the end of World War II.
 
Apr 2017
1,751
U.S.A.
Please keep in mind that most of the Jewish migration from the Pale to Russia already occurred by 1941. You can see this by comparing the 1897 and 1939 Jewish population figures for all of Russia, Moscow, and St. Petersburg. Also, please keep in mind that the Holocaust reduced the Pale's Jewish population by a lot considering that over 2.5 million Pale Jews were murdered in the Holocaust while only slightly more than 1 million Pale Jews managed to survive the Holocaust by successfully evacuating to the interior of the Soviet Union in 1941-1942. Of those who were evacuated during this time, most (but certainly not all) returned to the Pale after the end of World War II.
That supports my view that the jewish population wouldn't be much larger if at all in Russia.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,676
SoCal
OK, but please keep in mind that it would probably be easier to move in a non-Communist Russia (including for Jews) due to the lack of propiska system.
 
Apr 2017
1,751
U.S.A.
OK, but please keep in mind that it would probably be easier to move in a non-Communist Russia (including for Jews) due to the lack of propiska system.
If you mean move out of Russia, being a less hostile government and fewer losses from war would balance that out. If you mean move to Russia from a non-Russian area, I doubt it would be much higher than real life.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,676
SoCal
If you mean move out of Russia, being a less hostile government and fewer losses from war would balance that out. If you mean move to Russia from a non-Russian area, I doubt it would be much higher than real life.
I mean move into Russia from non-Russian areas. Also, please keep in mind that Moscow and St. Petersburg were the main centers of attraction and probably main economic hubs of Russia. Indeed, not everyone who wanted to move there was actually able to do so during Soviet times due to the propiska system.
 
Apr 2017
1,751
U.S.A.
I mean move into Russia from non-Russian areas. Also, please keep in mind that Moscow and St. Petersburg were the main centers of attraction and probably main economic hubs of Russia. Indeed, not everyone who wanted to move there was actually able to do so during Soviet times due to the propiska system.
Even if they did it wouldn't address the main reasons for the jewish population's decline.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,676
SoCal
Even if they did it wouldn't address the main reasons for the jewish population's decline.
Yes, but please keep in mind that while (Greater) Russia as a whole could still see its Jewish population gradually decline, some parts of it--such as the core Russian part--might continue to see an increase in their Jewish population. This is actually similar to how some parts of Eastern Europe (such as some cities and/or suburban areas) are still growing right now even while a lot of Eastern European countries as a whole are experiencing population decline.