Josef Stalin's USSR doesn't join at the end of the Pacific Theater

May 2019
119
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At the Yalta conference it was agreed that Josef Stalin would join the fight with the Japanese roughly 3 months after Germany had surrendered. He lived up to the terms of the agreement and invaded Manchukuo and some of Japan's islands (Salakhain and the Kuriles) Let's suppose this doesn't happen. The following are some questions that I have.

How would this have affected the Japanese Surrender? Japanese likely would have eventually lost and surrendered, but when? Would more atom bombs have been dropped? Would a naval blockade and continued firebombing have been employed? Would Operation Downfall have been launched?

Also what would have happened to former Japanese occupied Korea? Would it still have been divided or not? Would the war between the two Koreas have been avoided?
 
Mar 2019
1,784
Kansas
How would this have affected the Japanese Surrender? Japanese likely would have eventually lost and surrendered, but when? Would more atom bombs have been dropped? Would a naval blockade and continued firebombing have been employed? Would Operation Downfall have been launched?
I would say bomb and blockade. I think the Americans would have done everything they could to get out of putting boots on the ground.
 
May 2019
119
Northern and Western hemispheres
I would say bomb and blockade. I think the Americans would have done everything they could to get out of putting boots on the ground.
I agree that the Americans would have wanted to avoid an invasion. By bomb are referring to the nukes or the incindiaries? Or a combination of the two.
 
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May 2019
119
Northern and Western hemispheres
Definitely atomic. Not sure there was all that much left to burn by August
I also think the nukes still would have been dropped. There is a convincing case that the Manchurian invasion had a significant impact on the Japanese leadership's decision to surrender. If there was no mop up campaign between the Soviet and the Japanese in August, would the two nukes have been enough to force a surrender?

How many other nukes were available after the ones that were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and when would they have been dropped?
 
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May 2019
119
Northern and Western hemispheres
How would this impact the Chinese Civil War? The Soviets pretty much left Manchuria to the CCP.
I still imagine Chairman Mao and his communists winning the Chinese Civil War. One thing that has always confused me is that president Truman didn't do more to help Generalissimo Chiang Kai Shek.
 
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stevev

Ad Honorem
Apr 2017
3,516
Las Vegas, NV USA
Korea would be liberated by US forces so there would be no Korean War (as we know it) and no nuclear armed North Korea. Also there's a better chance China would not have become communist because there would be no Russian invasion of Manchuria and northern Korea.
 
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