Mongols killed 10 to 15 millions on the Iranian Plateau

Nov 2010
27
Genghis Khan - Wikipedia
Steven R. Ward wrote that "Overall, the Mongol violence and depredations killed up to three-fourths of the population of the Iranian Plateau, possibly 10 to 15 million people. Some historians have estimated that Iran's population did not again reach its pre-Mongol levels until the mid-20th century."

citing
R. Ward, Steven (2009). Immortal: a military history of Iran and its armed forces. Georgetown University Press. p. 39. ISBN 978-1-58901-258-5
which we can read at
Immortal
which in turn points to article
Durand-Guedy, "Iranians at War under Turkish Domination", 591-94, 599-601; and Nyrop , Iran, 39
Durand-Guedy's article is available at
Iranians at War under Turkish Domination: The Example of Pre-Mongol Isfahan
Unfortunately, I did not find the numbers "10 to 15 million" in that article on the said pages. (I hope this is because I glanced through the pages too quickly.)
Nyrop's book is probably Iran: a Country Study
Iran, a Country Study
whose snippet view doesn't appear to show those numbers either. The same book is "written" again by two different authors and can be previewed at
Iran: A Country Study
in which I definitely did not find those numbers. (It's strange that this latter book has the same content but does not mention the original author Nyrop.)

The Wikipedia quote of killing 10 to 15 millions on the Iranian Plateau is widely cited on the Internet. But I can't find the real source of this claim. Also, if anyone knows how to find the population in the first half of the 13th century in that area (Iranian Plateau), please share it. Thanks.
 
Feb 2018
242
US
Imaginary number. Basically all casualties listed for the mongol wars are just nonsense people make up without real evidence, as there is very little concrete evidence. A lot of work has been put into source criticism to understand the nuances here. You can read Charles Melville's speech/article, any of George Lane's works, and Peter Jackson's Mongols and the Middle East book for an updated scholarly discussion on casualties. Older works and non-Mongologist books are almost always wrong unfortunately since so much has changed.

The second sentence is also bogus and addressed in the above books.
 
Nov 2018
351
Denmark
During the Mongol occupation of Asia 1200-1380 CO2 content in the atmosphere decreased by 0.1 part per million, because large areas turned into forest, after the populations were killed.
This corresponds to one year's consumption of fossil fuels, that's not much, mother earth will hardly have noticed, but still significant.
Not even the Black Death with its millions of dead in Europe and Asia led to reduced CO2 emissions.
 
Mar 2012
1,211
Magdeburg
During the Mongol occupation of Asia 1200-1380 CO2 content in the atmosphere decreased by 0.1 part per million, because large areas turned into forest, after the populations were killed.
This corresponds to one year's consumption of fossil fuels, that's not much, mother earth will hardly have noticed, but still significant.
Not even the Black Death with its millions of dead in Europe and Asia led to reduced CO2 emissions.
How one checks emissions from a thousand years ago?
 

janusdviveidis

Ad Honorem
Mar 2014
2,002
Lithuania
How one checks emissions from a thousand years ago?
There is method by using ice cores from Greenland, there is method of counting years in layers of ice, then analyse air buble in the ice from period that you are interested in. Not sure how accurate, but there is some reasonable correlations with rise of Roman Empire etc.
 
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Nov 2018
351
Denmark
How one checks emissions from a thousand years ago?
There is method by using ice cores from Greenland, there is method of counting years in layers of ice, then analyse air buble in the ice from period that you are interested in. Not sure how accurate, but there is some reasonable correlations with rise of Roman Empire etc.
Here is a link to an article that deals with the coincidence of the Mongol invasion and the emergence of more forest.
War, Plague No Match for Deforestation in Driving CO2 Buildup
 
Nov 2010
27
Dr. David Durand-Guedy (mentioned by Steven R. Ward, as one of the two sources for the figure "10 to 15 millions" in the Wikipedia article) kindly replied to my questions about that figure and the population in that area at the time. With his permission, I'm posting his email as follows:

The figure of 10-15 millions killed during the Mongol conquest of Iran is not acceptable. It might be obtained by adding up the figures given by the medieval chroniclers (for example, Juzjani says that 1,5 millions were killed in Herat. But they are far-fetched and no serious scholar accepts them. Whereas the issue of medieval demography for this part of the world is lacking reliable data, it is now admitted that the largest cities of Iran (e.g. Nishapur, Herat, etc.) had no more than 150,000 inhabitants each. For example a leading historian of Medieval Iran, R. Bulliet, used archaeology and textual sources to assess the population of the largest city of Khorasan, Nishapur, at 100,000 at the time of its splendour, in the 11th century (the city declined afterwards and was far smaller at the beg. of the 13th when Chinggis arrived). The cities of Transoxiana (Bokhara, Samarqand) might have been more populous, but they were still in the same range. What the chroniclers wanted to say is that the degree of brutality seen during the Mongol conquest was unprecedented, which is true. And mass killings became the new norm after Chinggis (at the end of the 14th century Timur/Tamerlan had 75,000 people killed after the capture of Isfahan). The issue of the human consequences of the Mongol conquests has been addressed in the authoritative book of the historian David Morgan, The Mongols, Cambridge (Mass.): Blackwell, 1986n, see esp. “the effects of Mongol conquests” pp. 73-81 with a reference to an article by Bernard Lewis who had previously dealt with this issue.
 
Aug 2018
337
America
That's the likely number of the entire Mongol conquests, not just in the Iranian plateau:

"Nonetheless – while the Mongols themselves would have been absolutely delighted to have been credited with the annihilation of 40 million people in the 13th century (around 9% of the world’s population at the time) – the number seems pretty unlikely. It’s the same as the number of civilians killed in World War II with a vastly higher world population and more destructive forms of weaponry. 11-15 million doesn’t seem outside the realms of possibility – a staggering total but still some way short of the inflated total given by Pinker [8]. If that figure is correct then the Mongol Conquests killed 2.5% of the world's population (450 million) in over a hundred years - from the 1230s to the late 14th century. By contrast World War II managed to wipe out between 1.5 and 2% of the World's population in only six years."
 
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Dreamhunter

Ad Honorem
Jun 2012
7,486
Malaysia
During the Mongol occupation of Asia 1200-1380 CO2 content in the atmosphere decreased by 0.1 part per million, because large areas turned into forest, after the populations were killed.
This corresponds to one year's consumption of fossil fuels, that's not much, mother earth will hardly have noticed, but still significant.
Not even the Black Death with its millions of dead in Europe and Asia led to reduced CO2 emissions.
So those devastating Mongol invasions contributed to planetary healing & restoration. Wow. Man.
 
Nov 2010
27
That's the likely number of the entire Mongol conquests, not just in the Iranian plateau:

"Nonetheless – while the Mongols themselves would have been absolutely delighted to have been credited with the annihilation of 40 million people in the 13th century (around 9% of the world’s population at the time) – the number seems pretty unlikely. It’s the same as the number of civilians killed in World War II with a vastly higher world population and more destructive forms of weaponry. 11-15 million doesn’t seem outside the realms of possibility – a staggering total but still some way short of the inflated total given by Pinker [8]. If that figure is correct then the Mongol Conquests killed 2.5% of the world's population (450 million) in over a hundred years - from the 1230s to the late 14th century. By contrast World War II managed to wipe out between 1.5 and 2% of the World's population in only six years."
Thanks. To make your posting complete, here's the relevant part of the author's note [8]:

"Clearly the Chinese census [two censuses show a drop of 60 million] cannot be taken at face value in estimating population lost & most of the total must be due to plague. Assuming the real decline was 30 million (allowing for a significant undercount in the censue) and Mongol actions accounted for 25% of deaths gives 7.5 million. This would give a grand total of 11.5 million over the course of around a century."

So the authors assume 11.5-7.5=4 million were killed by the Mongols anywhere outside of China in a period of one century. Then the number for the Iranian Plateau is lower than 4 million. That sounds reasonable.