No Wonder of the Vistula

Dec 2017
249
Regnum Teutonicum
#1
I recently saw an alternate history video some made with the topic "What if the Soviets won the Soviet-Polish War?", so no Wonder of the Vistula. The first half I found really interesting. It goes something like this:

For some reason (several reasons are mentioned, why this was likely to happen) the soviets win and there is no Wonder of the Vistula. The result of this is the conquest of Poland. Next the soviets invade Germany, because they think with their help the german communists will overthrow the government. This will fail spectacularly, because of different reasons. 1. the most violent communists and socialists had been killed in the spartacist uprisings, 2. the right, center and social democrats would be horrified by Germany being invaded by the soviets and start working together, 3. the example of Finland and other places had shown that nationality trumped workers solidiarity, so even the german communists and socialists would join the government in the fight, 4. the First World War had just ended, so Germany could rearm very quickly, 5. there would be masses of veterans who didn't need training, 6. the soviets had stretched their supplies to Warsaw to the limit, so they couldn't sustain it all the way deep into Germany, and some other reasons.
The Entente wouldn't get involved, because they had fought Germany a few years earlier, but wouldn't want communism and Soviet Russia to expand. So the germans would push into Russia, until the soviets would agree to a peace, were Germany would get all territory it had lost to Poland according to the Versailles Treaty and other treaties and there would be buffer states between the two.
After this victory the Entente would have to give Germany some way with the reparations of the Versailles Treaty. Additionally the Republic would have been seen by the population as the legitimate and strong form of government of Germany. So no Hitler in power. The Entente would not have been able to stop Austria from joining Germany in the 1920's. Soviet Russia wanted to get back Poland and other territory of course.

What do you think of this scenario?
I think it is rather realistic, but I have one problem. Would the soviets really have invaded Germany right after the conquest of Poland? I don't know enough to decide if this is realistic or not.

Nevertheless how would be the timeline in such a scenario?
I think it is save to say that in such a scenario the Saar Protectorate would rejoin Germany in the referendum (the saarlaenders even did in the violent one in the 1950's) and Danzig would be sooner or later peacefully returned to Germany. Things that wouldn't happen would be the lithuanian invasion of East Prussia and annaxation of the Memelland and the occupation of the Ruhr. This means France, Belgium, Italy and Lithuania wouldn't be in breach of the Versailles Treaty, so relations between Germany and those countries could become better faster, especially with France and Stresemann in power. Add to that the reintegration of western Prussia, most of Posen and nearly all of Silesia, Germany would have only lost Alsace and Lorrain to France, german-Liege and a little part of the Rhineland to Belgium, northern Schleswig to Denmark and a small part of Silesia to Czechoslovakia. The germans wouldn't have felt humiliated and there wouldn't have been so many revanchist people. With Vorarlberg, Salzburg, Tyrol, Austria, Carinthia, Styria and Burgenland included, Germany would even be larger than before the war. With von Seeckt in charge, the military would be excellent. There one can see defensive pacts/alliances with other democratic countries like Finland, Poland and the United States of America against the soviets.
 

Rodger

Ad Honorem
Jun 2014
5,379
US
#3
From what I have read, the Leninists were intent on creating a bolshevik state in Germany. During the period where the Soviets had military success against Poland during the Polish-Soviet war I have read that Trotsky and Stalin spoke of going 'on to Germany.' Realistically, without a popular uprising in Germany, which is what the Soviets hoped would happen, they did not have the manpower to invade Germany.
 
Dec 2017
249
Regnum Teutonicum
#4
@Isleifson
Can you tell me in a few words what the book is about? The cover looks...interesting.

@Rodger
So the leninists wanted to create a bolshevik states in Germany. Do you know or think they would have done it with an attack? And do you think they would have tried it directly after a successful (from their point of view) Soviet-Polish War?
 

Rodger

Ad Honorem
Jun 2014
5,379
US
#5
@Isleifson
Can you tell me in a few words what the book is about? The cover looks...interesting.

@Rodger
So the leninists wanted to create a bolshevik states in Germany. Do you know or think they would have done it with an attack? And do you think they would have tried it directly after a successful (from their point of view) Soviet-Polish War?
I don't believe in 1920 the bolsheviks had the military resources to defeat and hold Poland and then defeat an even military weakened Germany without an uprising or workers revolution like they had in Russia in 1917. They were still involved in the vestiges of a civil war with the Russian Whites and Blacks. I do believe the bolsheviks thought this would happen. If it did, I believe the Allies would have intervened for germany (but not Poland) due to its proximity to western Europe.
 

Isleifson

Ad Honorem
Aug 2013
3,632
Lorraine tudesque
#6

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