Operation Downfall

Oct 2015
233
Singapore
What if Albert Einstein has a conscience attack and decides not to help the Americans develop a nuclear bomb and the Americans are forced to launch a conventional attack on Japan? How would it work and what would be the expected result.

Assume that besides the American forces, there would be forces from Australia/New Zealand, British and Canadian forces. No nuclear bombs and besides napalm, no chemical warfare.
 

Davidius

Ad Honorem
Dec 2010
5,001
Pillium
Einstein didn’t work on the Manhattan Project as he was an avowed pacifist and could not get security clearance.

A (very) small part of his work was used by others working on the project but the idea that “Einstein worked on the bomb” is just not true.

So in your hypothetical scenario the outcome is unchanged.
 
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Oct 2015
935
Virginia
The DOWNFALL plan was for 1 1/2 divisions to seize several small islands south of Kyushu, then on or about 1 Nov 1945 to land 3 Marine and 6 Army divisions (3 more in reserve) of 6th Army (Kreuger) on three beaches in southeast Kyushu, capture the southeastern third of the island including Kagoshima and to establish air and naval bases (Operation OLYMPIC).

Then, after receiving re-inforcements from Europe and intense bombing and bombardment, on or about 1 March 1946 3 Marine and 6 Army divisions (6 in reserve) of 8th Army (Eichelberger) and 1st Army (Hodges) would land on three beaches east and southeast of Tokyo (Operation CORONET) and capture Tokyo and the Kanto plain.

DOWNFALL would be under the command of general MacArthur. The objective was "unconditional surrender" of Japan. Whether this would be forthcoming was, of course, problematic. It was not certain that even total conquest of the home islands would induce Japanese troops elsewhere in the Far East and Pacific to capitulate.

There were plans for a "Commonwealth Corps" with Australian, New Zealand, Canadian, Indian and British troops; a detachment of British Bomber Command and, of course, the British Eastern Fleet to participate. But, except for the fleet and bombers, apparently not in the assault phase.

The execution of the plan was jeopardized by the heavy casualties suffered on Okinawa and Iwo Jima. The Navy especially started to cool to the idea of invasion, and began to consider whether blockade and bombardment alone, without actual invasion, could force a surrender. Nimitz expressed these views to Admiral King. Admiral King was also losing confidence in invasion, and while he agreed that planning for invasion should proceed, he insisted that the whole concept be re-visited by the Chiefs-of-Staff in August. Another problem arose when intelligence sources revealed that the Japanese had set a "strategic trap" for the invaders. Determining that Kyushu was the most likely target, and hoping to win a last minute victory to force better terms; the Japanese high command sent over 600,000 troops (nearly as many as the invasion force) and all flyable aircraft to the area. This information, which assured there would be high casualties, raised further doubts of the efficacy of invasion in the Navy command. MacArthur, of course was still anxious to achieve his apotheosis as commander of the greatest invasion in history. Admiral King might well have withdrawn Navy support for the invasion and sent the decision to Truman.
 
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Oct 2015
233
Singapore
Einstein didn’t work on the Manhattan Project as he was an avowed pacifist and could not get security clearance.

A (very) small part of his work was used by others working on the project but the idea that “Einstein worked on the bomb” is just not true.

So in your hypothetical scenario the outcome is unchanged.
Well, given he was a pacifist let's just say he manages to arm-twist some of the scientists in the Manhattan Project into accepting his pacifist views. Enough so the project is delayed, non-viable or something. And the Allies are forced to launch a conventional assault on Japan.
 

GogLais

Ad Honorem
Sep 2013
5,474
Wirral
Einstein didn’t work on the Manhattan Project as he was an avowed pacifist and could not get security clearance.

A (very) small part of his work was used by others working on the project but the idea that “Einstein worked on the bomb” is just not true.

So in your hypothetical scenario the outcome is unchanged.
There was his famous letter to FDR. I’ve no idea whether the Manhattan Project would have been delayed much had it not been written.
 

stevev

Ad Honorem
Apr 2017
3,571
Las Vegas, NV USA
There was his famous letter to FDR. I’ve no idea whether the Manhattan Project would have been delayed much had it not been written.
The Einstein–Szilárd letter was a letter written by Leó Szilárd and signed by Albert Einstein. It was sent to President Roosevelt in 1939 to warn him of the progress Germany was making in nuclear fission and the potential for a nuclear weapon. Apparently Einstein did not see this as a violation of his pacifist views or he didn't read the letter.