Peace terms in a scenario where the Union quickly wins the American Civil War

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
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SoCal
#1
What do you think that peace terms would have looked like in a scenario where the Union would have quickly won the American Civil War?

For instance, do we still see the same 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments to the U.S. Constitution being passed and ratified in this scenario?
 

betgo

Ad Honorem
Jul 2011
6,281
#2
Probably not. Lincoln was initially saying the war was not about slavery. It would also have been difficult to get the south to agree to emancipation. Lincoln was even suggesting that there could be compromises over slavery in the January 1865 peace talks.

The 14th and 15th Amendments were adopted in 1868 and 1870. They were passed by a Radical Republican controlled Congress in response to southern resistance to black rights.
 
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Futurist

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May 2014
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SoCal
#3
Probably not. Lincoln was initially saying the war was not about slavery. It would also have been difficult to get the south to agree to emancipation. Lincoln was even suggesting that there could be compromises over slavery in the January 1865 peace talks.
Source for the last part, please?

Also, I was thinking of getting the South to agree to emancipation at the point of a gun.

The 14th and 15th Amendments were adopted in 1868 and 1870. They were passed by a Radical Republican controlled Congress in response to southern resistance to black rights.
Would the Radical Republicans have still acquired control of Congress in this scenario?
 

betgo

Ad Honorem
Jul 2011
6,281
#4
Source for the last part, please?

Also, I was thinking of getting the South to agree to emancipation at the point of a gun.



Would the Radical Republicans have still acquired control of Congress in this scenario?

At the January 1865 conference, Lincoln suggested that if the Confederate states rejoined the Union quickly they could block the 13th Amendment. He also suggested delaying abolition for 5 years. These were his initial suggestions, so it is likely he was willing to concede more. This is discussed in Wikipedia and elsewhere.

I am not sure that Congress would support emancipation in 1861-1862. It is likely that the threat of emancipation might be used to get the Confederacy to agree to reunion.
 
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Futurist

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May 2014
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SoCal
#5
At the January 1865 conference, Lincoln suggested that if the Confederate states rejoined the Union quickly they could block the 13th Amendment. He also suggested delaying abolition for 5 years. These were his initial suggestions, so it is likely he was willing to concede more. This is discussed in Wikipedia and elsewhere.
Very interesting. I'll see if I can find more about this on Wikipedia and elsewhere.

BTW, if the South is able to block emancipation in 1865 by rejoining the Union early enough, it could also block emancipation five years later. Given the extreme difficulty of amending the U.S. Constitution, the South will have to be coerced to end slavery.

I am not sure that Congress would support emancipation in 1861-1862. It is likely that the threat of emancipation might be used to get the Confederacy to agree to reunion.
What was Congress's reaction to Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation?

Also, what would the end game of this be? I mean, if slavery isn't going to be abolished in 1861-1862, when will it be abolished?
 

stevev

Ad Honorem
Apr 2017
3,419
Las Vegas, NV USA
#6
"At the January 1865 conference, Lincoln suggested that if the Confederate states rejoined the Union quickly they could block the 13th Amendment. He also suggested delaying abolition for 5 years. These were his initial suggestions, so it is likely he was willing to concede more. This is discussed in Wikipedia and elsewhere".

see: Lincoln's Peace Terms at January 1865 Conference
 
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Futurist

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May 2014
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SoCal
#7
"At the January 1865 conference, Lincoln suggested that if the Confederate states rejoined the Union quickly they could block the 13th Amendment. He also suggested delaying abolition for 5 years. These were his initial suggestions, so it is likely he was willing to concede more. This is discussed in Wikipedia and elsewhere".

see: Lincoln's Peace Terms at January 1865 Conference
Thanks for this link!

Anyway, it seems very, very stupid for Lincoln to tell the South that they could block the 13th A if they'll rejoin the Union quickly enough. After all, what about if they will call his bluff?
 

stevev

Ad Honorem
Apr 2017
3,419
Las Vegas, NV USA
#8
Thanks for this link!

Anyway, it seems very, very stupid for Lincoln to tell the South that they could block the 13th A if they'll rejoin the Union quickly enough. After all, what about if they will call his bluff?
It does from our prospective, but Lincoln was very concerned about the difficulties of integrating millions of former slaves into the economy. He discussed this often with his advisors and didn't see an easy solution. He anticipated the continued resistance of white southerners to integration and possible mass migration to northern states. John Wilkes Booth relieved Lincoln from this problem. With Reconstruction, the 13th Amendment passed quickly and the radical Republican majorities passed the 14th and 15th amendments. Ultimately though, Lincoln's concerns proved correct once the South recovered its political power.
 
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Futurist

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May 2014
20,996
SoCal
#9
The difficulties of integrating millions of former slaves is a terrible reason to keep them enslaves, though--especially when one has just fought a civil war against a state that was committed to preserving slavery (indeed, preserving slavery was the Confederacy's raison d'etre).

As for the resistance of White southerners, that was going to happen in any case, Southern Whites were going to mistreat Blacks regardless of whether or not they were slaves--though I do agree with you that Southern slave owners who might have been relatively compassionate towards Blacks in the days of slavery might have been less compassionate after slavery's abolition.

As for the mass migration of Blacks to northern states, as long as large numbers of European immigrants were continuing to arrive in the US, this wasn't going to be a significant issue since Northern employers would have probably preferred to hire Europeans over Blacks if they actually had a choice in regards to this. Large numbers of Blacks didn't begin moving north until the start of WWI--which is when European immigration to the US was interrupted--followed by the passage of stringent immigration quotas in the 1920s, of course.
 

stevev

Ad Honorem
Apr 2017
3,419
Las Vegas, NV USA
#10
The difficulties of integrating millions of former slaves is a terrible reason to keep them enslaves, though--especially when one has just fought a civil war against a state that was committed to preserving slavery (indeed, preserving slavery was the Confederacy's raison d'etre).
.
I agree, but if Lincoln did indeed make this offer to the South in Jan, 1865, how do we explain it? Perhaps Lincoln wanted to end the unprecedented slaughter. He had won his second term, so perhaps he wanted to buy time. Once the shooting and killing stopped many outcomes were possible. Preserving the Union was always his primary objective.

You could argue that given the many lives already lost, allowing slavery to persist in any form at this point is out of the question. Lincoln only offered the possibility that the South could block the 13th amendment. In fact the outlines of Reconstruction had not yet been agreed upon. If the South accepted Lincoln's offer, I assume they would be readmitted to the Union with voting rights. The question then would be could Lincoln rely on the less moderate Congress to prevent the South from blocking the 13th amendment. He was after all a practiced politician. Once the South laid down their arms, it would be difficult to restart the war. Finally the 13th amendment didn't actually take effect for a year which allowed Lincoln time to try figure out the many problems he faced.
 
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