Planned rations of food in North Korea - beyond horrible

Jul 2016
8,994
USA
#81
The only nation that can alter the fate of North Korea is China. Outside looking in as China modernizes NK can only be a headache. Why would you need a buffer state when the USA can no longer topple your regime militarily.
China is influential with North Korea but has nowhere near as much power as many incorrectly assume. China was not North Korea's patron throughout its history, the Soviet Union was. China's involvement in the Korean War was not based on a desire to save its client state, but because MacArthur was an idiot. It was the collapse of the Soviet Union which caused the nasty famine of the 90s, and the desire to development nuclear weapons because they lacked the military support of a patron. There was a time when China, a very long time antagonistic nation to Korea, had tried to step up and become North Korea's patron, and it got pretty close, as the PRC had an insider very high up in the Kim regime, Jang Song-thaek, who was son-in-law to Kim Il Sung, brother-in-law and second in command to Kim il Jung, and uncle to Kim Jong Un. He was VERY pro-China and there was even talk around 2011 that he might even replace Kim Jong Un. And then Kim Jong Un's faction had him executed and his body supposedly fed to dogs.

China definitely has influence, especially economically and trade. But North Korea is not their proxy, not their puppet.
 
Likes: Spartakus X
Dec 2018
85
Cheyenne
#82
China is influential with North Korea but has nowhere near as much power as many incorrectly assume. China was not North Korea's patron throughout its history, the Soviet Union was. China's involvement in the Korean War was not based on a desire to save its client state, but because MacArthur was an idiot. It was the collapse of the Soviet Union which caused the nasty famine of the 90s, and the desire to development nuclear weapons because they lacked the military support of a patron. There was a time when China, a very long time antagonistic nation to Korea, had tried to step up and become North Korea's patron, and it got pretty close, as the PRC had an insider very high up in the Kim regime, Jang Song-thaek, who was son-in-law to Kim Il Sung, brother-in-law and second in command to Kim il Jung, and uncle to Kim Jong Un. He was VERY pro-China and there was even talk around 2011 that he might even replace Kim Jong Un. And then Kim Jong Un's faction had him executed and his body supposedly fed to dogs.

China definitely has influence, especially economically and trade. But North Korea is not their proxy, not their puppet.
All true. I figure however if China disavowed the NK regime and stopped aid shipments the regime would fold like a cheap suit.
 
Likes: arkteia
Jul 2016
8,994
USA
#83
All true. I figure however if China disavowed the NK regime and stopped aid shipments the regime would fold like a cheap suit.
Partially. They went along with many of Trump's sanctions and embargoes. Not fully, because they are still trying to weasel more deals by not committing fully to try to get paid off. But enough that North Korea is basically imploding right now.

Kim Jong Un's only chance, besides capitulation, is to try to outlast Trump. Most of Wash DC already made it clear in 2016 that while they were very unhappy about it, because they were not willing to use hard diplomacy and brinksmanship, they were just going to have to accept North Korea as a nuclear power and growing Asian power. The Kim regime knows that, and knows that they don't need to outlast America, just Trump. If Trump loses in 2020, the next president will likely ignore North Korea like the others largely have and let them get away with more and more aggression, without actually doing anything besides complaining because action is "too dangerous." But if Trump wins again, Kim will probably have to capitulate, his govt can probably hold together for a few years since the start of sanctions/embargoes in late 2017, but not for nearly two full terms. By the end, the only one not eating humans to survive will be Kim Jong Un himself. Well, he'll probably eat them because he's a pig.
 
Dec 2018
85
Cheyenne
#84
Partially. They went along with many of Trump's sanctions and embargoes. Not fully, because they are still trying to weasel more deals by not committing fully to try to get paid off. But enough that North Korea is basically imploding right now.

Kim Jong Un's only chance, besides capitulation, is to try to outlast Trump. Most of Wash DC already made it clear in 2016 that while they were very unhappy about it, because they were not willing to use hard diplomacy and brinksmanship, they were just going to have to accept North Korea as a nuclear power and growing Asian power. The Kim regime knows that, and knows that they don't need to outlast America, just Trump. If Trump loses in 2020, the next president will likely ignore North Korea like the others largely have and let them get away with more and more aggression, without actually doing anything besides complaining because action is "too dangerous." But if Trump wins again, Kim will probably have to capitulate, his govt can probably hold together for a few years since the start of sanctions/embargoes in late 2017, but not for nearly two full terms. By the end, the only one not eating humans to survive will be Kim Jong Un himself. Well, he'll probably eat them because he's a pig.
If Kim's regime collapses what do you think happens next? Does China move in and take over to prevent refugee overload? Reunification with the south? Kim goes out in a blaze of glory?
 

arkteia

Ad Honorem
Nov 2012
4,722
Seattle
#86
Well, if China protects NK’s regime, maybe one has to negotiate with the boss, with China, about persuading NK to let in people with humanitarian aid. Too many people died of hunger in the XX century for us to allow it happen in the XXIst.
 

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