Population Control

stevev

Ad Honorem
Apr 2017
3,062
Las Vegas, NV USA
In the 1920's France's population was about 50 million. Today it's about 65 million. This about the same growth rate as Britain with a current population of about 65 million. The population growth rate of Europe is approaching zero. France's population would be lower if it were not for recent immigration from Algeria and other parts of Africa. Residents of what's left of France's colonial empire are French citizens and count in its official population.

Population of Europe (2019) - Worldometers
 
Last edited:

royal744

Ad Honoris
Jul 2013
10,369
San Antonio, Tx
Economists love statistics and population control is one way to manipulate the statistics. Take for example per capita GDP (Gross Domestic Product). If GCP holds steady while population declines, then per capita GDP rises. It looks like the country is getting wealthier and on an individual basis that might be true, but in fact the country is not producing more than it used to. In some situations, it might be easier to control population growth than it is to increase GDP. China has benefitted immensely from their One Child Policy, at least in terms of per capita GDP.
Families in China probably don’t soothe each other with visions of greater prosperity because they have fewer children; instead, they are probably very worried and very concerned that they have only one child who has to bear the burden of caring for their parents in old age. I can understand why the Chinese govt did this but they didn’t really think it through.
 

Dan Howard

Ad Honorem
Aug 2014
4,353
Australia
The One Child policy has accelerated the Aging demographic timebomb in China. It has also caused a major imbalance between the sexes: males significantly outnumber females. Females are being forcefully trafficked into China as a consequence.
 
Dec 2011
2,169
There is considerable doubt that the one-child policy was a success; it seems that, in tandem with other countries of similar development, China's fertility would have reduced anyway, without the one-child policy.
https://io9.gizmodo.com/did-chinas-one-child-policy-actually-reduce-population-1511784972

This "aging demographic time bomb" is just another thing that journalists want to worry us with. If the population was increasing so that the age profile of the population had a balance of working-age people, the journalists would, for sure, simply be trying to make us worry about the "demographic time bomb". A population of approaching 8 billion and no end in sight to the increase I regard as worrying, an aging population I think we will learn to cope with. As individuals, the primary worry for each one of us is the sickness and death that we all ultimately must face.
 

Dan Howard

Ad Honorem
Aug 2014
4,353
Australia
A population of approaching 8 billion and no end in sight to the increase.
I've already shown you that there IS an end in sight. Specifically, in the 2050s. After that the population will start to decline. Nothing short of a cataclysmic event will change this.

China's fertility would have reduced anyway, without the one-child policy.
Yes but not as quickly. As I said, the One Child Policy "accelerated" the trend, it didn't cause it. In addition, the gender imbalance has partially contributed to the decline in fertility and that is a direct result of the OCP.
 
Last edited:
Dec 2011
2,169
I've already shown you that there IS an end in sight. Specifically, in the 2050s. After that the population will start to decline. Nothing short of a cataclysmic event will change this.


Yes but not as quickly. As I said, the One Child Policy "accelerated" the trend, it didn't cause it. In addition, the gender imbalance has partially contributed to the decline in fertility and that is a direct result of the OCP.
Here is the graph that you included in your earlier post.
1559626686684.gif
As far as I can see the population will still be increasing, though markedly more slowly, in 2050.

I would really love to believe that the population will peak in that year and start falling, but from what I read the peak won't be reached until about 2100.

The latest predictions by demographers in the 2010s shows that, because of continued high fertility in Africa, growth won't stop, even by 2100, although it will be only 0.1% pa by then. Of course, nobody can be certain what will happen 80 years in the future. There are a actually a range of predictions, the median being a population peak of 10.7 billion at or soon after 2100.
1559627256862.png
Projections of population growth - Wikipedia
 
Likes: Futurist

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
18,039
SoCal


One would wonder if overpopulation in Sub-Saharan Africa could result in selection pressures there that would result in eugenic fertility there (with the population there becoming smarter due to the smarter people there having more children).
 

Similar History Discussions