Predicting the Next Decade 2020-2030

Apr 2018
979
Upland, Sweden
But is that at least partly due to discomfort because of unfamiliarity?

For example, I've been in areas with lots of Eastern Europeans, and I feel uncomfortable partly because I don't understand what they are saying, and a lot of them are young men. They might all be lovely, law abiding people, but I still felt uncomfortable.
Sure, unfamiliarity definitely has a role to play. Especially coupled with the stereotypical Scandinavian insularity it makes a lot of sense. The "medelsvensson" Swede is often thought of as being very uncomfortable with conflict and quite shy. If you instantly meet lots of foreigners, especially if those foreigners are from cultures where the stereotype is 180 degrees opposite in temperament, this is hardly a "match made in heaven" so to speak. This no doubt plays a part.

I am not convinced it is a sufficent explanation though. People in Sweden are not really that unfamiliar with migration from foreign cultures per se, I think it's more the scale couple with the smaller secondary effects of migration and the signals (or lack thereof) which people percieve from authorities and society around them, that you notice in everyday life. To take a few examples:
Basically every convenience store in the country has a roma beggar sitting outside of it who migrated from here from Bulgaria or Romania; basically every railway station has groups of "youths" (i.e. men, most commonly Afghans, aged anywhere from 18-45 years old) just hanging around every hour of the day, forming neat little clusters of 3-12 people in every public space you can think off (provided we are talking about at least mid-sized cities). It's more common to see stationary police everywhere, particularily in the places where these "youths" are hanging around. Things (infrastructure, public buildings) look marginally less well kept than they were a few years ago. Public servants are more angry and more stingy "on principle" (I have a quite a few examples of inside knowledge from the medical profession through family members and acquaintances, but it would be wrong of me to publish them here) - transparently it's about squeezing the people who actually care about the law, while letting the more problematic people who are not easily regulated by bureaucrats slide. Why? My guess is its because the public servants have directives from up above to "effectivize" etc. because of the increased costs they are facing, mainly because of migration and the social problems related to it.

To take a very anecdotal and personal example, just three hours ago on my way to my apartment in midsized city somewhere in the middle of Sweden I noticed that the city council had put up a typically cliché, public sector poster with the theme "This is all the cool cultural things we are offering this summer! Come to this "festival" funded with your tax payer money!" (not explicitly, but I think you understand the point). Anyway, under the Swedish text there was a text in Arabic. I.e. a public authority, funded by the Swedish tax payer, is using a foreign language (also an incredibly foreign language, they could have used English if it was just about communication? Why didn't they?) to signal things on public posters, in a public setting, in an area of the particular city where there are little migrants, and for purposes which relate to everybody who is a resident, taxpayer and citizen in the particular city. This is indeed unfamiliar, and I think most Swedes (including me) have very little desire to have these things become familiar. Yet they are becoming more and more so...
 
Last edited:
Apr 2018
979
Upland, Sweden
Everything that reaches a top will inevitably fall (menaing end). Could that be a case of the Swedish system (that was seen by many as a world reference)? I mean, quoting the Nobel Prize winner, Bob Dylan, “The Times They Are a-Changin”. The changes that you are pointing are not a signal of these changes, in Sweden but also in the global world?

We can make an analogy with the Economics, Gresham's law, the bad money drives out the good one. Swedish system in this analogy is (was) the good one.

EDIT:

Just noted that the thread tittle is "Predicting the next decade 2020-2030". Well predictions are not in the field of history. This should be in other sub-forum. Not in "general history".
Hahaha! Well, he is a Nobel-winner, so he must be onto something ;) i think you're partially right, it's hardly like Sweden is isolated. But even if everything comes to an end, it just feels like it's going to be a particularily bad one, that might be difficult to salvage anything meaningful from. Change might be the only true, narrowly defined constant in history, but I like to believe there usually more than just a whisper of continuity that lives on...

The future will certainly be interesting to see if nothing else, I imagine historians will have a lot to write about 100 years from now.
 

Tulius

Ad Honorem
May 2016
5,572
Portugal
Hahaha! Well, he is a Nobel-winner, so he must be onto something ;) i think you're partially right, it's hardly like Sweden is isolated. But even if everything comes to an end, it just feels like it's going to be a particularily bad one, that might be difficult to salvage anything meaningful from. Change might be the only true, narrowly defined constant in history, but I like to believe there usually more than just a whisper of continuity that lives on...

The future will certainly be interesting to see if nothing else, I imagine historians will have a lot to write about 100 years from now.
Somewhat off topic, but the present generations always have the idea that their world his changing, it was not only Bob Dylan in the far 1960's:

Camões, a 16th century Portuguese Poet, the best or one among the best, already wrote in the beginning of a sonnet: “

“Mudam-se os tempos, mudam-se as vontades,
Muda-se o ser, muda-se a confiança;
Todo o mundo é composto de mudança,
Tomando sempre novas qualidades.”

Bad Google translation:

“Times are changing, wills are changed,
Change the being, change the confidence;
Everyone is made up of change,
Always taking on new qualities.”

Personally, currently, I also think that our world is changing for worse. Looking to the wrong models.
 

Naomasa298

Forum Staff
Apr 2010
34,609
T'Republic of Yorkshire
Sure, unfamiliarity definitely has a role to play. Especially coupled with the stereotypical Scandinavian insularity it makes a lot of sense. The "medelsvensson" Swede is often thought of as being very uncomfortable with conflict and quite shy. If you instantly meet lots of foreigners, especially if those foreigners are from cultures where the stereotype is 180 degrees opposite in temperament, this is hardly a "match made in heaven" so to speak. This no doubt plays a part.

I am not convinced it is a sufficent explanation though. People in Sweden are not really that unfamiliar with migration from foreign cultures per se, I think it's more the scale couple with the smaller secondary effects of migration and the signals (or lack thereof which people percieve from authorities and society around them) you notice in everyday life. To take a few examples: Basically every convenience store in the country has a roma beggar sitting outside of it who migrated from here from Bulgaria or Romania; basically every railway station has groups of "youths" (i.e. men, most commonly Afghans, aged anywhere from 18-45 years old) just hanging around every hour of the day, forming neat little clusters of 3-12 people in every public space you can think off (provided we are talking about at least mid-sized cities). It's more common to see stationary police everywhere, particularily in the places where these "youths" are hanging around. Things (infrastructure, public buildings) look marginally less well kept than they were a few years ago. Public servants are more angry and more stingy "on principle" (I have a quite a few examples of inside knowledge from the medical profession through family members and acquaintances, but it would be wrong of me to publish them here) - transparently it's about squeezing the people who actually give a **** about the law, while letting the more problematic people who are not easily regulated by bureaucrats slide. Why? Transparently because the public servants have directives from up above to "effectivize" etc. because of the increased costs they are facing, transparently because of migration and the social problems related to it.

To take a very anecdotal and personal example, just three hours ago on my way to my apartment in midsized city somewhere in the middle of Sweden I noticed that the city council had put up a typically cliché, public sector poster with the theme "This is all the cool cultural things we are offering this summer! Come to this "festival" funded with your tax payer money!" (not explicitly, but I think you understand the point). Anyway, under the Swedish text there was a text in Arabic. I.e. a public authority, funded by the Swedish tax payer, is using a foreign language (also an incredibly foreign language, they could have used English if it was just about communication? Why didn't they?) to signal things on public posters, in a public setting, in an area of the particular city where there are little migrants, and for purposes which relate to everybody who is a resident, taxpayer and citizen in the particular city. This is indeed unfamiliar, and I think most Swedes (including me) have very little desire to have these things become familiar. Yet they are becoming more and more so...
To a point, I can relate. Our councils spend a portion of their budget translating all of their literature into minority languages such as Urdu and Hindi. I personally am of the opinion that if you live in a country, you should really be able to function in the language of thst country. OTOH, I lived in Qatar for many years, but I never learned Arabic, because none of the people around me - including my Arab schoolfriends, spoke Arabic (they didn't speak it to one another in school).

When I was in hospital, the patient in the bed opposite me needed a Polish interpreter. Now, this gentleman was 93 years old, had fought in WW2 and at Monte Cassino, has settled in Britain when he couldn't go to the US due to being wounded in the leg, and had kids and grandkids who looked, sounded, and acted British. I have no problem with the health service spending money on an interpreter for someone like this. But there are others who need interpreters who are considerably less deserving (in terms of contribution to the country). It's not an issue of migration per se, many of the nurses in the NHS are Phillipino and Nigerian and they do a wonderful and important job.

Your point about police holds true in this country, maybe for different reasons. The police are assessed on their success rate, so they go after easy targets like speeding drivers, instead of harder to solve crimes.
 

macon

Ad Honorem
Aug 2015
4,003
Slovenia, EU
Because of a street crime of migrant gangs. I for example live in a town of 12.000. I can imagine what would bring us taking in 300-500 migrants in one center, mostly young males who would afterwards hang around the corners in groups of few.

I've read a lot what happened in Germany just because of such centers. Theft and violence on a daily basis and people, especially elderly who are afraid of going out, again especially at night.
 
Likes: Swamp Booger
Jun 2018
471
New Hampshire
A couple of great surprises could be India and Brazil. In next decade India, it's still a bit early for Brazil, actually. But India could impose itself as a regional power.

I expect something from Africa [finally!]. Senegal is doing very well and surrounding countries are imitating it. This could mean the beginning of something new.
As far as sub-Saharan Africa goes, I should think Nigeria is most likely to become a regional power. It has the continent's largest population, and the largest military south of the Sahara. Not sure about its current GDP.
 
Jun 2018
471
New Hampshire
Because of a street crime of migrant gangs. I for example live in a town of 12.000. I can imagine what would bring us taking in 300-500 migrants in one center, mostly young males who would afterwards hang around the corners in groups of few.

I've read a lot what happened in Germany just because of such centers. Theft and violence on a daily basis and people, especially elderly who are afraid of going out, again especially at night.
And the worst part of it is, none of the mainstream political parties in Germany are doing anything about it out of fear of being labelled "Nazis."
 
Likes: macon

Naomasa298

Forum Staff
Apr 2010
34,609
T'Republic of Yorkshire
These groups of young men are caused by the asylum policies of European governments.

Some may feel that too many asylum seekers are being admitted. Whether or not you agree, these asylum seekers are neither housed away from the community, nor are they allowed to work. They are effectively living in a limbo. They cannot integrate, if they don't know if they are going to be allowed to stay, and they have nothing to do during the day. So they naturally congregate with others from their home country. And since they cannot work, some turn to crime.

Some will no doubt say, the answer is not to let so many in. Well, shouldn't have gone round toppling regimes then. If one lectures other people on morality, one has to live up to one's own standards.
 

Larrey

Ad Honorem
Sep 2011
5,583
While I would agree that it is certainly not the kind of half crazy warzone it is occasionally portrayed as by more sensationalistic observers, don't you think there is a kind of... growing sense of unease?

I mean it is an objective fact that crime and social problems are increasing, and have gotten more brutal. While these things tend to be localized into certain low-income, migrant heavy areas, it is still a bit weird that we have had actual bombings become a thing, don't you think? Sure, this is hardly the norm in the country, it's not like you risk getting blown to pieces if you walk down Strandvägen or Avenyn or whatever. Lots of places here are very nice and I stil highly recommend people visiting, I absolutely agree.

But I wouldn't say @macon is really so far off, and I think he's right to say old Svedala was generally speaking more pleasant ten years ago. Of course these things are hard to measure "objectively" whatever that means, but at least if I can go by myself and by many of the people I know there is a growing sense of something (or a lot of things) feeling a bit off, or wrong - I am sure it could be partially psychological, but I also domn't think one should simply dissmiss intuition (not that that is exactly what you are saying).
This sense of unease – sure, it's there – but how does it stack up against the growing sense of "unease" in the entire western world? Greater or smaller? It's very much not something specific for Sweden – except Sweden is held to ridiculous standards, and when those can't confirmed, the sky is declared fallen.

And maybe ten years ago was better, but twenty-thirty years ago we already had right-wings nutters shooting immigrants in the street, trade union representatives being murdered, car bombings against journalists. It might be hindsight, but it's frankly tricky to see how the growing unease is supposed to be a linear function of things becoming so much worse? Thirty years ago it was the Yugoslavs and Greeks who were wasting each other in shoot-outs. Sure, the spate of immigrant kids offing each other for no apparent reason is worrying. They're much younger than the old-school crims, like back when "Big Jokso" Dragan Joksovich had his brains blown out in public at the horses by some weird Finnish kid, and we sort of knew it was about money and turf.

I'm not out to make light of the recent deadly gang violence, but the level of lethal shootings we have now is at the same level as when I was a kid in the 1980's. It absolutely needs to be adressed, and currently it is an outlier in EU crime statistics. But then again, Sweden has always had some or Europe's highest murder and manslaughter rates.
 
Jun 2018
471
New Hampshire
These groups of young men are caused by the asylum policies of European governments.

Some may feel that too many asylum seekers are being admitted. Whether or not you agree, these asylum seekers are neither housed away from the community, nor are they allowed to work. They are effectively living in a limbo. They cannot integrate, if they don't know if they are going to be allowed to stay, and they have nothing to do during the day. So they naturally congregate with others from their home country. And since they cannot work, some turn to crime.

Some will no doubt say, the answer is not to let so many in. Well, shouldn't have gone round toppling regimes then. If one lectures other people on morality, one has to live up to one's own standards.
Oh I agree. Regime change especially in Iraq was the biggest mistake the United States has made this century. Believe me, i am no fan of George W. Bush and his neocon gang. However, sad to say the damage is done. What the West needs now is a comprehensive strategy to deal with this migrant situation and return a semblance of order and national pride to our respective nations.
 
Likes: macon

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