Predicting the Next Decade 2020-2030

royal744

Ad Honoris
Jul 2013
10,983
San Antonio, Tx
I agree that this sense of unease is a pan-Western phenomenon, and I think it might even be smaller in Sweden for various cultural and sociological reasons than it is in say France, Germany or even Finland. But I think that the problems in Sweden which people are reacting towards are very severe. We seem in some ways to be at the far end of the scale. In other ways we are a lot more fortunate (or a lot better than many other countries, one might perhaps say without becoming too patriotic) but broadly speaking: I think we are heading into a perfect storm.

As for your description of the actualities, you are not wrong, but I think you are drawing a false line of equivalence here. 20-30 years ago coincided with a home-grown economic crisis that was the worst we had seen since, what - the 1930s? I think there was a shock factor back then which is missing now, although admittedly I'm not old enough to have experienced that period in any meaningful way.

As for "right-wing nutters" shooting immigrants in the streets: we had as far as I know one right wing nutter in the form of Lasermannen, who succesfully killed one person. While certainly tragic, and I agree, the neo-Nazi movement in Sweden was surprisingly pronounced at that time, let's not overstate things. Yugoslavs and Greeks might have been wasting each other but by any objective metric the problem was much lesser. When the Social Democrats decided to shut the border then ("Luciabeslutet") the number of people coming into the country wasn't even half of what it was in 2015, and then the macro-economic circumstances were much worse. Back in the 90s there were, what - three "Ghettos"? How many utanförskapsområden are there today? 60-something?

When you say trade union reps were being murdered and journalists getting their cars blown up I am not sure what you are talking about. I know of exactly one case of a trade union rep being murdered in the 1980s (I am guessing it is the one you are referring to) and I know of also one case of a journalist getting his car blown up from the 80s-90s, I think (but I am less sure there, but I have no doubtyou are correct that it happened). It just seems to me that these phenomena are so much less serious, and from mine albeit limited knowledge constitute obvious outliers at the time. How many bombings were there last year? For the first three months of this year we have over 48 bombings. This just wasn't the case in the 1980s, not even in the same order of magnitude (if I can hazard a guess, without knowing exact crime statistics from the 1980s). It's about scale, and proportions.

As for guncrime being the same level as the 1980s, how do you measure that? Is it really the number of shootings that are the same today or the number of people (or proportion) killed in shootings that is similar? Medical technology has advanced a bit since the 80s after all, that's hardly thanks to Swedish politicians...

It's not the end of the world, but I think the kind of demographic change (EDIT: Not yet social, hopefully never social) we are going through as a country are approaching perhaps those that took place at the end of the Roman Empire. Among teens the amount of men per woman was reportedly close to 120/100 in 2015 (I saw an article that it reached 123/ 100 in early 2016, but I have not been able to find it), something Hans Rosling went out and wrote an article about just before he passed away, bless the man. What are the implications of this? How do you "fix" the societal consequences of something like that? Wait for them to become middle aged and loose vitality and agression?

Look, I don't want to be a doomsayer or something, but from where I'm sitting the reality seems to be that we have somewhere between 5-15% of the population who 1) don't identify with the country and often dislike it, to put things mildly 2) are not identified with as belonging to the country and nation, if we're being honest about these things 3) are in practice either financed/ subsidized by the tax-payer, or through petty crime, small businesses owenership which only goes around through tax-evasion/subsidies. EDIT: Even if they're great, how much value and innovation do they add to our incredibly competetive and tech/knowledge itnensive economy?

How do we deal with this as a country? How does any country deal with this? How many people are we talking about that fit at least 1 of these categories, but not all 3 of them? 20% of the population? 25%? EDIT: How big will this group be in 10 years?

Well, what we've done, and what I've experienced my entire life growing up is that we obsess about racism, we obsess about "fairness" and "justice" and how modern and post-national we are, and yet - nobody likes to hang out with Ahmed at the schoolyard. Nobody will tell him that there is anything like "Swedish culture", let alone invite him into this post-national wonder we've created. So people like Ahmed (this is a real example, from one of the most prestigious high schools in the country during the early 2010s when I was going there) will of course fall for all this bullshit that we teach ourselves pretending that we don't have an identity, so he could say something like (in broken Swedish) "Of course there is no real Swedish culture", while laughing at all the 25 other students, 85% of which were ethnic Swedes/ Europeans - none of which said a word, but just bascially sat there and felt the entire situation was a bit stel. He and his friend from Syria, who are both clever, "integrated" kids will tell themselves "jokingly" in the corridor that "I can't wait until we take over", being overheard by lots of Swedish students, none of whom of course said a thing, even to just "joke" back.

I have partial migrant ancestry, and I once talked about this with my dad (born here to Estonian parents in the 50s) about a lot of these tiny, everyday observations, and he was absolutely shocked by the casual disrespect so many of these "New Swedes" seemed to show, and the complete lack of backbone that most people seem to demonstrate when faced with that kind of at best provocative and at worst dominance-seeking, aggressive behaviour. He would never have dreamed of behaving in such a way. Why would he say such nasty things, about a country which took in his parents and allowed him every opportunity to succeed - and which he hoped to become a part of? Is that how normal human beings behave in normal historical and social circumstances?

Do you not feel that this is sick? Do you not understand how absurd and batshit insane it is that a country conditions its population to feel this schizophrenic mixture of shame and pride in itself - all the while being too shy and afraid of conflict to actually do anything about it either way? I'm sorry if I'm being impolite, and I'm sorry if this is not representative of your lived reality, but this is the way I genuinely experience our country - and to me it has become especially clear when you spend some time outside of Sweden that everything is not quite right with it, even judging by the standards common to the modern West.
The US is literally “a nation of immigrants” so the immigrant experience here is pretty common. Heck, we don’t even have an “official” language. We use English as the default language but one can hear dozens of languages if one opens one’s ears. It upsets some natives who “think” English is our official language. Of course, if an immigrant wants to integrate, he will learn English.

I’m thinking of historic immigrant ghettos in New York - Hell’s Kitchen? - which absorbed tens of thousands of immigrants, many of whom eventually moved to other parts of the country. I know Jews who immigrated here from Russia who came in through Galveston, Texas, of all places, much as others did to settle in Belgian, German, Czech and Polish communities here as well.

If you’re going to make an omelet (America), you’re going to have to break some eggs and mix them all together.
 

royal744

Ad Honoris
Jul 2013
10,983
San Antonio, Tx
As far as sub-Saharan Africa goes, I should think Nigeria is most likely to become a regional power. It has the continent's largest population, and the largest military south of the Sahara. Not sure about its current GDP.
My impression of Nigeria is not as positive as yours: it’s a dangerous place; you need armed guards to protect you; villagers throw boards with nails in them in the roadway to blow your tires and the country is split between Moslems and Christians who don’t like each other. There is lots of oil, but it may well have made corruption worse, not less.
 

royal744

Ad Honoris
Jul 2013
10,983
San Antonio, Tx
I wouldn't count on it, the craziness is coming just as much from the Democrats, with the added disadvantage that it is not centred there on a one-off figure like Trump; and it has totally corrupted the mainstream media.
No one in the history of this country even comes close to the Current Occupant...
 

royal744

Ad Honoris
Jul 2013
10,983
San Antonio, Tx
I don't think Trump is trying to 'legitimize' North Korea, he is trying to wind down the tensions by flattering Kim; that may seem distasteful and may not succeed, but nothing else has succeeded either, and there does seem to have been a lessening of the threatening and provocative behaviour from NK.
The prez is not that clever, but he falls for flattery easier than anyone who has ever held that office.
 

royal744

Ad Honoris
Jul 2013
10,983
San Antonio, Tx
I will be interested to see what role the United States takes in Latin America over the next decade. Iraq still looms over her foreign policy, making the citizenry perhaps far more skeptical about any future military adventurism. But democracy is unpredictable, and who's to say there won't be a President who does decide to roll the dice and, for example, invade Venezuela?

And what of Mexico? Given the power of the drug cartels and America's increasing desire to secure the border, I have begun to wonder if we could see a return to the days of narco-terrorism.
What reason would Frump use as an excuse to invade Venezuela? God knows we don’t need their oil and when you “break the pottery, you’ve got to pay for it”. Funny, how all of Venezuela’s large oil reserves haven't created prosperity for its people. Might be a problem with its leadership.
 

Dan Howard

Ad Honorem
Aug 2014
5,161
Australia
When did Trump need an excuse to do something? But I agree that he won't do anything in South America. His natural inclination is towards isolationism.

It galls me to say it but I think Trump will win the next election.

Oil very rarely generates wealth for ordinary citizens because it tends to destroy other sections of the economy. It is called "Dutch Disease". Norway is one of the few exceptions.
 
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sparky

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
5,692
Sydney
There is an undercurrent of unease about the future of major countries ,
some of their problems like national debt , immigration , de-industrialization and ballooning current deficits are difficult to even discuss in a democratic system
and let's not even get into climate change , whose remediation cost are simply brushed under the carpet
democracies have an "expire by date" and it would seems some are turning sour
 
Mar 2010
1,329
Ohio
As a means of self-preservation, I am actively preparing for the potential of civil war in the United States within the next five to ten years. Where I hope this is a nightmare I do not have to live through, there is no greater threat this nation then the sudden embrace of despotic socialism and the desire to destroy our constitution and civil liberties by the American left. There simply may be no alternative. Perhaps, this could be achieved through peaceful means, I do not know. Needless to say, America's implosion will cause a major shift in the balance of power in the world with China likely being the greatest benefactor. Europe may mirror some of the same civil conflicts of America if we indeed go down this path, though not with the reverberations. With America's passing, it could possibly open the gates to Russia establishing itself as a superpower again by grabbing some of it's old European and Asian assets. Even if the status quo wins, the world will continue to trade unpredictability of freedom and individualism for the safety of tyranny.
 

Larrey

Ad Honorem
Sep 2011
6,116
As a means of self-preservation, I am actively preparing for the potential of civil war in the United States within the next five to ten years. Where I hope this is a nightmare I do not have to live through, there is no greater threat this nation then the sudden embrace of despotic socialism and the desire to destroy our constitution and civil liberties by the American left. There simply may be no alternative. Perhaps, this could be achieved through peaceful means, I do not know. Needless to say, America's implosion will cause a major shift in the balance of power in the world with China likely being the greatest benefactor. Europe may mirror some of the same civil conflicts of America if we indeed go down this path, though not with the reverberations. With America's passing, it could possibly open the gates to Russia establishing itself as a superpower again by grabbing some of it's old European and Asian assets. Even if the status quo wins, the world will continue to trade unpredictability of freedom and individualism for the safety of tyranny.
Don't worry, the US right will take matters in hand long before it comes to that, and ensure these Democrat lefties don't get to vote on anything that matters anymore...
 
Mar 2010
1,329
Ohio
Don't worry, the US right will take matters in hand long before it comes to that, and ensure these Democrat lefties don't get to vote on anything that matters anymore...
I guess the best way to do this would be to abolish the electoral college, gun confiscation, mass censorship of opposing voices on the internet, and the takeover of mass media. Well, If I were a despot this is what I would do.