Predicting the Next Decade 2020-2030

Larrey

Ad Honorem
Sep 2011
6,116
I guess the best way to do this would be to abolish the electoral college, gun confiscation, mass censorship of opposing voices on the internet, and the takeover of mass media. Well, If I were a despot this is what I would do.
Well, if you can imagine it, so can others. Which means a US slide to autocracy probably won't come from the left, but from the right, on a basis of justification of having to pre-empt the left... Sorry.
 
Mar 2019
53
Europe
The so called "European Union" will cease to exist.
It's not an Union. It's an organization.
Organizations cannot rule over a continent.
Russia is going to rise. And West Europe is set for a big decline as the population is no more ethno-cultural.
For example, see the never ending protests in France...
 

Tulius

Ad Honorem
May 2016
6,557
Portugal
Will we be here in 2030 to read all this and see how we all were wrong?

After all History doesn’t look to the future but the past. And since we are in a history forum, we all like more History than Futurology!
 

Dan Howard

Ad Honorem
Aug 2014
5,161
Australia
The so called "European Union" will cease to exist.
It's not an Union. It's an organization.
Organizations cannot rule over a continent.
Russia is going to rise. And West Europe is set for a big decline as the population is no more ethno-cultural.
For example, see the never ending protests in France...
How is Russia going to "rise"? It has an economy the size of Spain and Australia. If you look at the economy on a per capita basis, it is significantly worse than those countries. If you look at it as a percentage of the world's economy, it is actually going backwards. Its GDP is projected to continue trending downwards.

 
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Dan Howard

Ad Honorem
Aug 2014
5,161
Australia
Will we be here in 2030 to read all this and see how we all were wrong?

After all History doesn’t look to the future but the past. And since we are in a history forum, we all like more History than Futurology!
But in 2030 this thread will be part of history and a valid subject for study.
 
Mar 2019
53
Europe
How is Russia going to "rise"? It has an economy the size of Spain and Australia. If you look at the economy on a per capita basis, it is significantly worse than those countries. If you look at it as a percentage of the world's economy, it is actually going backwards. Its GDP is projected to continue trending downwards.

I don't know where have you been looking but I'm pretty sure that I've checked yesterday that for 2019 Russia is at #11 in the global GDP (nominal) rankings, which you know... definitely puts it in front of Spain and definitely in front of Australia too. Australia is at #15.
But that's not the only criteria when measuring whether one would rise or not.
Russia also has a way bigger and better army which is a critical factor.
What does Australia or Spain have??
Nothing. Compared to Russia. I'm not sure if they can be called "Regional powers".
 

Dan Howard

Ad Honorem
Aug 2014
5,161
Australia
I don't know where have you been looking but I'm pretty sure that I've checked yesterday that for 2019 Russia is at #11 in the global GDP (nominal) rankings, which you know... definitely puts it in front of Spain and definitely in front of Australia too. Australia is at #15.
But that's not the only criteria when measuring whether one would rise or not.
Russia also has a way bigger and better army which is a critical factor.
What does Australia or Spain have??
Nothing. Compared to Russia. I'm not sure if they can be called "Regional powers".
Russia spends too much on the military and corruption is destroying the rest of the economy.
 

Larrey

Ad Honorem
Sep 2011
6,116
I don't know where have you been looking but I'm pretty sure that I've checked yesterday that for 2019 Russia is at #11 in the global GDP (nominal)
Well yes, but the GDP is more or less at zero growth and the population is still dwindling. In practical terms Russia's nominal GDP has been stagnant in the last decade. Considering how the current government operates, no real change in this is expected.