Predicting the Next Decade 2020-2030

Mar 2019
53
Europe
Well yes, but the GDP is more or less at zero growth and the population is still dwindling. In practical terms Russia's nominal GDP has been stagnant in the last decade. Considering how the current government operates, no real change in this is expected.
You know this ain't true, for the very simple reason that had it been so Australia and Spain would have leapfrogged over Russia in terms of Nominal GDP. We know that isn't the case.
But there's another interesting aspect to this. Russia still has a big shadow economy whilst Spain and Australia don't, which in turn, actually makes Russia's numbers even bigger than the official ones.
And yes.. Russia is corrupt. That's not news to anybody.
 

Larrey

Ad Honorem
Sep 2011
6,116
No they have been falling back, leapfrogged as you say, just not by Spain and Australia (whether that is important or not), in nominal GDP. Russia has been falling back in the last years. It was as high as nr 6 at one point, nominally. Russia isn't quite back to where it was in 2008 yet.
 
Mar 2019
53
Europe
No they have been falling back, leapfrogged as you say, just not by Spain and Australia (whether that is important or not), in nominal GDP. Russia has been falling back in the last years. It was as high as nr 6 at one point, nominally. Russia isn't quite back to where it was in 2008 yet.
I talk with facts, buddy.
Russia was at #6 nominal, yes. But that was back in 2013 when the oil prices hit 100+$ for a barrel.
I repeat. In 2019 Russia is placed officially at #11, just slightly ahead of South Korea, ahead by 2 places over Spain, and 5 over Australia.
Their economies are definitely not equal.
1,350 is not 1,650.
That's 300 billions more.
Or in other words, more than half Poland.
Spain is about the same - around 1,300. It varies from the different sources.
Australia and Spain can be equal. But Russia is ahead of both.
 
Last edited:

royal744

Ad Honoris
Jul 2013
10,983
San Antonio, Tx
The EU needs to grow a pair and quit maligning their European heritage. This post-War guilt complex is obscene and Europe is paying the toll. Now you have a crisis situation with the European birth rate declining and Comrade Merkel and the EU pushing for ethnic replacement via third world migrants. And the decline of Christian morality and promotion of that transgender trash hasn't helped matters. It used to be that large European families were the norm, and the young generation was taught pride in their respective nations and cultural heritage.
Re birth rate: you can say exactly the same thing about America. I don’t know what “Christian morality” even means anymore. The so-called ‘Christians’ I see around here seem to be mostly into the “Prosperity Gospel” and is characterized by, “Buzz off, I’ve got mine.”
 
Jan 2013
798
Charlottengrad
I think the pace of change will get even quicker driven by genetics, AI, robotics, and other new technologies as well as more and more severe consequences of climate change and the ongoing mass extinction as well as the demographic shift. There will be a further growing divide between the people who cannot deal with the pace of change and those that want a faster pace of change to deal with the consequences of change. I think this will be the most defining aspect of the coming decade.

Politically, the US will lose it's political and economical status as a superpower and take it's role as a regional hegemony with global aspirations, similar to Russia and China today which both will keep that status as well - albeit not too sure with Russia, their economy is a mess, their demography as well and who knows what comes after Putin. China too will face severe consequences for their misguided demographic politics. The EU is at an interesting point, I see them staying closely aligned with the US but emancipating themselves further over the decade, founding a united military, introducing a version of a financial equalization system between the countries and aligning their policies more and more. They probably also try to push through their own version of the "green new deal" just recently announced by the commission and may well take leadership in the fight against climate change. The demographic change in Europe might be offset by technology and immigration but this remains to be seen. The EU will become a "soft power" on the level of the US, Russia, China but will lack the military strength to truly join them.
I expect some African nations like Senegal will establish themselves as regional powers themselves and will represent their interests with more confidence. However, I think it will take a bit more time for them being accepted in organisations similar to G20.
In South America I think Brazil and maybe Chile will establish themselves as the regional power, especially with less US influence there. However, they gonna largely be busy with internal strife to have any impact globally.
Similarly India, will stay locked in their conflict with Pakistan and internal demographic issues (aging and imbalanced m/f population). Their economy will continue to grow and they will firmly establish themselves as a major economic power but with little political influence globally.
I can see South East Asia coming together to face Chinese dominance together. Maybe seeking an alignment with India. However, not sure how this will go and if we gonna see a conflict there.
Islamic terrorism will stay a threat but diminish over time. The Iran/Saudi Arabia conflict will be the driving force in the Middle East in the beginning of the decade but will be overtaken by the consequences of the world slowly waning away from its dependence on fossil fuel as well as their populations demanding more freedom.
 

royal744

Ad Honoris
Jul 2013
10,983
San Antonio, Tx
Venezuela will be invaded by the United stayed and will become another disaster and hot bed of turmoil like Afghanistan and Iraq. Brazil will solidify relations with China and Russia to try to prevent future USA aggression in the continent.
Why would we be interested in invading Venezuela?
 

royal744

Ad Honoris
Jul 2013
10,983
San Antonio, Tx
Now Africa and other countries far outnumber Europe for their population, and they all want to come here. Is it racist to want to preserve heritage, culture and a peoples from becoming multicultural? It has happened before in Australia with the aborigines and in America with the Native Americans. If the high number of births and immigration continues then it could certainly happen to Europe, the absurd war guilt which Germany imposes upon every other country in the EU doesn't help matters. It seems the politicians in that country willingly want to replace the indigenous European populace.
I don’t believe this.
 

royal744

Ad Honoris
Jul 2013
10,983
San Antonio, Tx
You will notice there's a lot of accusations but zero proof that you can verify, at most you get some very shifty testimmonials, like that recent "spy"defector in his twenties who claim to be in charge of Chinese spy activities in Australia but somehow needs a English translator. So it always boils down to "X accuses the Confucious Institute" no verifiable proof, just his word, and the news lapped it up. A lie repeated over and over becomes the truth. Same ol same ol. More and more Chinese are going abroad, whose experiences in China contradict what mainstream media says (should that REALLY be that big a surprise?). So instead of maybe raising their own standard for their own news agency, they resort to the same tactic: "Don't believe what they tell you, believe what we tell you", because they're either spies or foreign agents or under watch. If there's going to be a second Cold War, it's because of these types of black and white thinking where people hear only one side of the story and automatically equate that with the truth. No questions asked.

Also, what do you think the excuse is when the Chinese government censors things? Sometimes not that different from the same excuse Twitter and Facebook uses, so why believe one excuse but not the other when it's just the flip-side of the same excuse?: Twitter and Facebook crack down on accounts linked to Chinese campaign against Hong Kong
I'd be more convinced if Twitter and Facebook also cracked down on American misinformation accounts/bots as well.
A lie repeated over and over again is still a lie.