Predicting the Next Decade 2020-2030

sparky

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
5,782
Sydney
That's a debatable point , the US is not the Hegemon anymore , just the biggest brawler on the block
 

Larrey

Ad Honorem
Sep 2011
6,158
The US might still collect all the pieces of the system of alliances and international organizations it has been at the centre of post-1945. It is still all there. (Very little in the form of actual alternatives have appeared. Russia has tried some things with mixed success, and China under XI is very keen on its Belt-and-Road project, but that still mostly has to be realized.)

The US hegemonship won't work quite as well as it did once, but it will still work for the forseable future, and a lot better than it currently is.

Because a big problem is that the US either doesn't understand or just don't appreciate the advantages of its position, or how to play its role effectively. It certainly is not acting the part as things stand, and no one forced it to do this.
 

Ancientgeezer

Ad Honorem
Nov 2011
8,910
The Dustbin, formerly, Garden of England
The British Government has launched a plan to eliminate petrol and Diesel vehicles by 2035 hoping that private transport will be all electric--pity they didn't talk to any engineers or even buy a calculator. A back-of-an-envelope calculation suggests that if there were 30 million cars that needed to be recharged overnight, an extra 720MWh would be required, allowing for performance parameters, say 1 Terrawatt/ht or 2 extra Dungeness nuclear power stations, just for overnight use. even worse, world cobalt production is just 160,000 t/year enough (with current technology) for 8 million batteries or 4 million cars--that's for the whole world!
It may be a good idea to invest in mules.
 

Dan Howard

Ad Honorem
Aug 2014
5,260
Australia
The British Government has launched a plan to eliminate petrol and Diesel vehicles by 2035 hoping that private transport will be all electric--pity they didn't talk to any engineers or even buy a calculator. A back-of-an-envelope calculation suggests that if there were 30 million cars that needed to be recharged overnight, an extra 720MWh would be required, allowing for performance parameters, say 1 Terrawatt/ht or 2 extra Dungeness nuclear power stations, just for overnight use. even worse, world cobalt production is just 160,000 t/year enough (with current technology) for 8 million batteries or 4 million cars--that's for the whole world!
It may be a good idea to invest in mules.
Lithium Cobalt Ion battery technology is already obsolete. There is no way that we will still be using those batteries in new cars in 2035. There are plenty of alternatives even today that don't use cobalt. Lithium Iron Phosphate is probably the most practical (I am using them right now to power my house) but better alternatives are already in the pipeline.

And you should read the policy again. The plan is to ban NEW petrol and diesel cars by 2035, which is perfectly reasonable. Lots of countries have bans that start earlier than 2035. Existing IC vehicles will still be allowed on the roads. It will take a generation or more for ALL cars to be EV, which gives plenty of scope for electricity generation to keep up.
 
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Ancientgeezer

Ad Honorem
Nov 2011
8,910
The Dustbin, formerly, Garden of England
Lithium Cobalt Ion battery technology is already obsolete. There is no way that we will still be using those batteries in cars in 2035. There are plenty of alternatives even today that don't use cobalt. Lithium Iron Phosphate is probably the most practical (I am using them right now to power my house) but better alternatives are already in the pipeline.
So LiFePO4 batteries don't have to be recharged?
 

Larrey

Ad Honorem
Sep 2011
6,158
The US is still a hegemon and the most powerful one, but it isn't the only one.
It's said to be a worry in the White House that if Trump wins a second term he might go full isolationist, beginning with withdrawing the US from NATO.

Putin most probably would like to propose a "New Yalta", where the US, China, Russia and a number of regional powers are invited to divide up the world in more formalized spheres of influence. The EU might be a political midget, if an economic giant, in relation to that, but hard to completely sideline, and on such conditions pretty much the only remaining reasonable power to uphold the post-WWII order the US initially crafted and led, and would be opposed to such a "New Yalta".

Then again, Trump might not do anything that radical, and Trump might still lose. Putin might still find itself in the ice-box, with a dwindling economy, and the Chinese government under Xi is currently under preassure, and no one quite knows how strong the Chinese government really is...