Predicting the Next Decade 2020-2030

Jan 2019
18
Eastern Europe
#31
Hard to say, but the age of power is coming :cool:

I would like to say that will have another Bronze Age Collapse, but it probably won't happen...Sad. But I predict Intermarium countries to become more USA-centric, EU will be in shambles, Britain won't return to EU, Russia will split (some regions will become independent), Japan will increase its influence, China will have some issues and have some conflicts with India. But anyway we are returning to the age of great powers. South America will become close to their own alliance. Iran might collapse. But I expect the rise of zoroastrianism eventually.

Anyway, I just want to watch the world burn. Edgy.
 
Apr 2018
702
Upland, Sweden
#32
Just browsed this from tech review via MIT:

Experts predict when machines will be better than you at your job




"The experts predict that AI will outperform humans in the next 10 years in tasks such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high school essays (by 2026), and driving trucks (by 2027).

But many other tasks will take much longer for machines to master. AI won’t be better than humans at working in retail until 2031, able to write a bestselling book until 2049, or capable of working as a surgeon until 2053.

The experts are far from infallible. They predicted that AI would be better than humans at Go by about 2027. (This was in 2015, remember.) In fact, Google’s DeepMind subsidiary has already developed an artificial intelligence capable of beating the best humans. That took two years rather than 12. It’s easy to think that this gives the lie to these predictions.

The experts go on to predict a 50 percent chance that AI will be better than humans at more or less everything in about 45 years."
I bet it'll take until 2100 until they can replace historumites though! :p

On a marginally more serious note, projections like these, not to speak of things like the learning curve of DeepMind make my inner reactinory fanatic itch for something like "the Butlerian Jihad" from Frank Herbert's Dune universe (Thou shalt not make a machine in the likeness of the human mind).

It's been half a millennia since when Martin Luther rang in the modern era, perhaps it's about time!
 
Likes: arkteia
Apr 2018
702
Upland, Sweden
#33
this seems to be as good a guess as they come
certainly the rise of governance floating on a sea of debt is ominous

the divorce between the governed and the governing class is deep and increasingly acrimonious
the very concept of "democracies " suttering in rage at "populism " raise the question of what exactly "democracy" stand for
if it is good government , the debt level would invalidate that
Thank you, I think. Hopefully you're wrong, and I'm far out but I'm not convinced either...

I might be wrong about this but it actually seems completely unprecedented (I don't know of an analogous situation, and nothing even remotely close before the modern era) in peace-time, this over-reliance on dept we've developed over the past three decades.

And yes, this redefinition of "democracy" and the unwillingness to even compromise, especially on behalf of the governing classes (up until this point anyway) seems very worrying. A generalization of course - and these kinds of analogies are not always valid - but if you look at 20th century history there seems to be a sharp dividing line between the political systems that managed some kind of gradual compromise with Modernity (the US, Britain, Scandinavia, France, the Netherlands for example) and countries that did not, but instead succumbed to various forms of instability and created lots of trouble on the world stage (Germany, Russia for example). This doubling down on behalf of the elite in much of the west does not look good to me, and it almost seems doomed to backfire one way or another.
 

sparky

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
3,822
Sydney
#35
Democracy is the ability of the governing classes to frame the questions and offer the answers to the people meek acquiescence

Mr Macron is a fine example of this
 

Dan Howard

Ad Honorem
Aug 2014
4,016
Australia
#37
If US turns socialistic, I am outta here.
It already has. The number of people deriving some sort of government-funded benefit in the US is extremely high and continues to increase. Food stamps, child care benefits, low income assistance, social security, disability pensions, agriculture subsidies, medicare, medicaid, rent assistance, housing subsidies, veterans assistance, and so on.

You do realise that socialism is the reason why you don't have to bring your own freeway with you when you drive you work. Or why a big red truck shows up to your house when it catches fire. Or why some dudes dressed in blue provide assistance when you get robbed.
 
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arkteia

Ad Honorem
Nov 2012
4,693
Seattle
#38
You do realise that socialism is the reason why you don't have to bring your own freeway with you when you drive you work. Or why a big red truck shows up to your house when it catches fire. Or why some dudes dressed in blue provide assistance when you get robbed.
Are you saying that Britain of XVII century was socialistic? Because police and firemen were pretty active during the Great London Fire.
 

sparky

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
3,822
Sydney
#39
My world view follows on Ibn Khaldun theories on civilization
a group with high internal consistency take over other groups , this create a dynamic and large state appear ,

the governance increase both in number and extend becoming ever more sophisticated
this come at the cost of an increase in levy from its governed base
increasingly the governed feel that they are getting a raw deal ,

the governance main concern from external goals become to keep the governed to pay and not revolt
state dogma , religion can hold thing together so can redirecting the armed force for internal police work
this oppressive posture lead to an increase in internal control cost
hence a further increase in taxation

the group unity decrease , it become a class matter
eventually the state is fragilized , a serie of stress , which previously would have been overcome
lead to a societal crash .
 

Naomasa298

Forum Staff
Apr 2010
32,021
T'Republic of Yorkshire
#40
Are you saying that Britain of XVII century was socialistic? Because police and firemen were pretty active during the Great London Fire.
Are you sure? There was no police or fire brigade at the time. Much of the fire fighting was done by local militia.
 

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