Russia doesn't conquer Siberia

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
What would the effects on Russia, Siberia, East Asia, and the rest of the neighborhood and world have been if Russia would not have conquered Siberia in the middle of the second millennium? For instance, how would this have affected Russian history? Also, just how long would it have taken for the Chinese, Koreans, and/or Japanese to conquer Siberia--and what would a Siberia ruled over by one of these countries up to this day have looked like?

Geographically, it does seem like Siberia is a much more fitting addition to East Asia than it is to Russia due to it possibly being further away from European Russia (especially the heavily populated parts) than it is from East Asia. So, I was wondering what Siberia's fate have looked like without a Russian conquest of it.
 
Apr 2017
1,737
U.S.A.
Assuming Russia is permanently barred from the region: It wouldn't have amounted to much until the later 20th century. Most of the interior would remain tribal. China would probably have loose authority over much of the southeast, Japan would take much of the east coastal regions in the early 20th century. Mongolia may take the claim to the north when it breaks away from china and without Russia they may become a vassal state to japan during ww2. After ww2 the region may be divided between Mongolia, china and some to japan. West Siberia may have been more organized, its fate being tied with that of central asia. Outer Manchuria may have been developed comparable to Manchuria. The rest would have been too remote to develop much. The Japanese regions would have been similar to Sakhalin in real life, only marginally settled.

As for Russia, without the vast territory in the east they wouldn't have got involved in colonial rivalries and may have had slightly better relations with Britain. During the Napoleonic wars and the world wars, Russia may not have held out as long since the Urals would be their frontier.

Central Asia's fate would depend how far the Russian frontier is.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
Assuming Russia is permanently barred from the region: It wouldn't have amounted to much until the later 20th century. Most of the interior would remain tribal. China would probably have loose authority over much of the southeast, Japan would take much of the east coastal regions in the early 20th century. Mongolia may take the claim to the north when it breaks away from china and without Russia they may become a vassal state to japan during ww2. After ww2 the region may be divided between Mongolia, china and some to japan. West Siberia may have been more organized, its fate being tied with that of central asia. Outer Manchuria may have been developed comparable to Manchuria. The rest would have been too remote to develop much. The Japanese regions would have been similar to Sakhalin in real life, only marginally settled.

As for Russia, without the vast territory in the east they wouldn't have got involved in colonial rivalries and may have had slightly better relations with Britain. During the Napoleonic wars and the world wars, Russia may not have held out as long since the Urals would be their frontier.

Central Asia's fate would depend how far the Russian frontier is.
Does Mongolia actually manage to secede from China and permanently retain its independence without having Russia as a protector, though? As for the development of northern Siberia, please keep in mind that some parts of it--such as Yakutia--actually do appear to have a lot of natural resources (in Yakutia's case, a lot of oil). So, that's an eventual incentive to claim it. Also, wouldn't the idea of terra nullis become less acceptable over time? In real life, the only territory that is actually terra nullis is Antarctica--and even it has numerous countries claiming a part of its territory.
 
Apr 2017
1,737
U.S.A.
Does Mongolia actually manage to secede from China and permanently retain its independence without having Russia as a protector, though? As for the development of northern Siberia, please keep in mind that some parts of it--such as Yakutia--actually do appear to have a lot of natural resources (in Yakutia's case, a lot of oil). So, that's an eventual incentive to claim it. Also, wouldn't the idea of terra nullis become less acceptable over time? In real life, the only territory that is actually terra nullis is Antarctica--and even it has numerous countries claiming a part of its territory.
Japan may be its patron in this timeline.
Yakutia (which is the Russian name for the region by the way) is north of Mongolia, so china would have to cross it to develop it. A fringe part of the empire wouldn't be a priority and the resources probably wouldn't be discovered till after Mongolia breaks away.
The territories would be claimed but little would be done with them. Mongolia and Japan would probably claim the majority of the north.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
Japan may be its patron in this timeline.
But can it actually permanently keep China out of Mongolia? After all, China has ten times Japan's population so it should eventually beat Japan in warfare once it (China) actually manages to industrialize--unless of course Japan actually develops nukes by that point in time like the USSR did in real life.

Yakutia (which is the Russian name for the region by the way) is north of Mongolia, so china would have to cross it to develop it. A fringe part of the empire wouldn't be a priority and the resources probably wouldn't be discovered till after Mongolia breaks away.
Makes sense. I'm just wondering if Mongolia could actually keep its independence in the long(er)-run in this scenario.

The territories would be claimed but little would be done with them. Mongolia and Japan would probably claim the majority of the north.
Why not all of the north?
 
Apr 2017
1,737
U.S.A.
But can it actually permanently keep China out of Mongolia? After all, China has ten times Japan's population so it should eventually beat Japan in warfare once it (China) actually manages to industrialize--unless of course Japan actually develops nukes by that point in time like the USSR did in real life.

Makes sense. I'm just wondering if Mongolia could actually keep its independence in the long(er)-run in this scenario.

Why not all of the north?
China was losing the war against japan before ww2, Japan would only be defeated with American intervention. Once done Mongolia would probably be set up as an independent state, similar to Siam/Thailand.

Mongolia would remain independent until a post ww2 china possibly invades it, depending on the circumstances (to hard to theorize, could go either way).

Depends on your definition of northern Siberia.
 
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Maki

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
3,961
Republika Srpska
Given that the Khanate of Sibir was a Muslim state, one could imagine religious conflicts between Islamic Sibir and Orthodox Russia.
 
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At Each Kilometer

Ad Honorem
Sep 2012
4,127
Bulgaria
This Khanate fell pretty early during the reign of the last Rurikids, ergo before the Time of Troubles. Kazan Tatars were conquered in 1552 and Sibir Khanate was just west of the Urals, defeated in 1582 and conquered in 1598. West Sibirian plain was largely in Tzar's hand during time of Glorious revolution in England. Conquered by independent bands of Cossack adventurers, the govn established its rule afterwards, by imposing tribute (meaning furs) to the locals, holding family members of the tribal leaders as hostages, medieval business as usual. By the way the elite of the Khanate has been Muslim, ordinary folk have been pagans, animists, shamanists etc.
 
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greatstreetwarrior

Ad Honorem
Nov 2012
3,894
I agree the Japanese would take the coast for trade settle it similar to sakhalin. Mongolia would be their client and conquer the rest of Siberia. China would find it harder to take on mongols due to the terrain and the mongols having the benefit of withdrawing further north similar to Russia and the east of the urals. Mongolia would probably be a kind of a korea playing off both china and Japan depending on the time and the tide. It might have had a more unified language that would integrate different dialects. I also expect that the Dalai Lama moves to this greater Mongolia as a spiritual head of buddhism rather than going to india once Tibet falls. I also feel this was a better situation for the mongols than the one that transpired and could lead to a strong nationalist revival of pan Mongolism among the populace strongly linked to buddhism
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
China was losing the war against japan before ww2, Japan would only be defeated with American intervention. Once done Mongolia would probably be set up as an independent state, similar to Siam/Thailand.
I meant China losing this war but winning a rematch somewhere down the line.

Mongolia would remain independent until a post ww2 china possibly invades it, depending on the circumstances (to hard to theorize, could go either way).
OK.

Depends on your definition of northern Siberia.
Everything north of Mongolia all of the way up to the Arctic Ocean.