Sweden wins the Great Northern War

Larrey

Ad Honorem
Sep 2011
5,257
#2
Hm...

Peter is deposed in favour of some non-entity who largely owns his throne to Charles – for however long that might actually last (could last long enough for things to develop elsewhere at least). No Russian ports on the Baltic – no St. Petersburg (for now). The Swedish Baltic empire survives a bit longer.

Charles pivots west. Possibly a war on Denmark for the conquest of Norway, much like what happened historically.

Since we assume Charles gets away with things here, Norway is successfully conquered, Denmark reduced.

Moving into the more uncertain future: Charles joins in the war in the west as an allied of France. What could be in the cards, since there were at least loose ideas at the time, is for Charles to invade Scotland, with the Stuart Pretender in tow after being dusted off his gilded exile in France. If this succeeds, a Jacobine restoration in the UK.

Sweden and France for the might moment hold the balance of Europe between them. Who knows what they might do next? But then again, even with those kinds of dramatic developments the accumulated problems that would also create could be assumed to come home to roost...
 

Larrey

Ad Honorem
Sep 2011
5,257
#4
What accumulated problems?
The war started because Sweden was attacked by a grand coalition, due to decades of accumulated resentment of its military expansion, at the expense of others. More military success just removes the immediate problem, but feeds the resentment. Queue round two...

Even with Norway the Swedish empire is seriously lacking in manpower. (Charles had no apparent designs on Russia, Poland or the German lands.) Poland isn't actually stable on Sweden's side even with a friendly Swedish-appointed king. Russia, even if "fixed" for the moment with similar solution as Poland would be magnitudes worse. The Dutch aren't happy. The Spanish aren't giving up. The Austrian and Prussians just like the Dutch would be very unhappy with Sweden as a clear hegemon in the Baltic. Just maintaining the situation would be a challenge.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
18,039
SoCal
#5
The war started because Sweden was attacked by a grand coalition, due to decades of accumulated resentment of its military expansion, at the expense of others. More military success just removes the immediate problem, but feeds the resentment. Queue round two...

Even with Norway the Swedish empire is seriously lacking in manpower. (Charles had no apparent designs on Russia, Poland or the German lands.) Poland isn't actually stable on Sweden's side even with a friendly Swedish-appointed king. Russia, even if "fixed" for the moment with similar solution as Poland would be magnitudes worse. The Dutch aren't happy. The Spanish aren't giving up. The Austrian and Prussians just like the Dutch would be very unhappy with Sweden as a clear hegemon in the Baltic. Just maintaining the situation would be a challenge.
What about if Sweden will offer to partition Poland together with its neighbors as a way of buying itself some additional time and manpower?
 
Apr 2018
966
Upland, Sweden
#6
I think any kind of Swedish Great Power scenario that does not incorporate a unified and relatively stable Scandinavia (under Swedish rule in this case) is bound to fail, for much of the same reasons @Larrey points out.

I think Charles XII would have failed in this, just as he failed in real life. However, should he win the Great Nordic War and not spend all those years in Bender... Maybe his personality would develop differently.

It's all about Denmark really. If the Swedes and Danes can reach some kind of settlement, then Sweden might have plausibly maintained a kind of great(er) power status for a long time.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
18,039
SoCal
#7
I think any kind of Swedish Great Power scenario that does not incorporate a unified and relatively stable Scandinavia (under Swedish rule in this case) is bound to fail, for much of the same reasons @Larrey points out.

I think Charles XII would have failed in this, just as he failed in real life. However, should he win the Great Nordic War and not spend all those years in Bender... Maybe his personality would develop differently.

It's all about Denmark really. If the Swedes and Danes can reach some kind of settlement, then Sweden might have plausibly maintained a kind of great(er) power status for a long time.
Do you think that Sweden is going to be able to prevent the Partitions of Poland in this scenario?

Also, how many Swedes and other Scandinavians do you see moving to Livonia and Estonia in this scenario over the next couple of centuries?

Finally, is Sweden also going to aim for Courland, Lithuania, and/or East Prussia?
 
Jul 2009
9,782
#8
Hm...

Peter is deposed in favour of some non-entity who largely owns his throne to Charles – for however long that might actually last (could last long enough for things to develop elsewhere at least). No Russian ports on the Baltic – no St. Petersburg (for now). The Swedish Baltic empire survives a bit longer.

Charles pivots west. Possibly a war on Denmark for the conquest of Norway, much like what happened historically.

Since we assume Charles gets away with things here, Norway is successfully conquered, Denmark reduced.

Moving into the more uncertain future: Charles joins in the war in the west as an allied of France. What could be in the cards, since there were at least loose ideas at the time, is for Charles to invade Scotland, with the Stuart Pretender in tow after being dusted off his gilded exile in France. If this succeeds, a Jacobine restoration in the UK.

Sweden and France for the might moment hold the balance of Europe between them. Who knows what they might do next? But then again, even with those kinds of dramatic developments the accumulated problems that would also create could be assumed to come home to roost...
"Success is never final." :)
 
Likes: Futurist
Mar 2016
1,089
Australia
#9
There was a common belief held by many Western Europeans during the Great Northern War that Sweden would be the decisive factor in the War of the Spanish Succession; whichever side they joined, that side would almost certainly be victorious. Traditionally Sweden had a more positive relationship with France, so it would be very interesting to see whether a victorious Sweden would indeed join the war on France's side. Depending on what stage of the war this occurred in, it could even result in a decisive French victory and thus the union of the thrones of France and Spain.
 
Likes: Futurist

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
18,039
SoCal
#10
There was a common belief held by many Western Europeans during the Great Northern War that Sweden would be the decisive factor in the War of the Spanish Succession; whichever side they joined, that side would almost certainly be victorious. Traditionally Sweden had a more positive relationship with France, so it would be very interesting to see whether a victorious Sweden would indeed join the war on France's side. Depending on what stage of the war this occurred in, it could even result in a decisive French victory and thus the union of the thrones of France and Spain.
It would have needed to be an early victory since the Spanish war ended in 1713 while this war ended in 1721 in real life.
 

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