Syrian Civil War: military operations (the show must go on)

Rodger

Ad Honorem
Jun 2014
5,370
US
As long as they are in place they act as trainers, command planners, communications and air support for the Kurds. As long as they are their the Kurds know that the US will support their actions, if the Syrians get to close to Kurdish forces the US will attack them with aircraft citing 'threatening embedded US forces'

As long as US forces are in place SyAF planes cant fly over kurdish areas, they cant risk shelling kurdish areas where Americans might be present, oh and as long as the Americans are there the Kurds are guaranteed resupply with weapons and cash.

Now the Americans are going the Arabs who make up a large part of the SDF are going to have to judge their loyalty to Kurdish idealism or Syrian offers of amnesty and Russian cash.
I was doing some reading on the situation since my last post. It seems the Americans were being used as a buffer between the Turks and Kurds, to discourage fighting. This is not a place where any fighting force wishes to be. I also read (can't say if it is confirmed) that there have been "skirmishes" between American and Russian troops. Again, not ideal. Vietnam has taught the U.S. that a half hearted approach is not a good approach. The whole idea of "trainers" and "observers" reminds me too much of our situation in Vietnam. I am all for supporting the Kurds. The U.S. did that for years in Iraq and now for years in Syria. This task seems like a never ending situation. Won't the threat of airstrikes help keep things to an advantage for the Kurds?
 
May 2017
1,201
Syria
Won't the threat of airstrikes help keep things to an advantage for the Kurds?
And what will be the reasoning of said airstrikes if the US ground forces withdraw?

Overall, Kurds aren't in an advantage. Their two main objectives right now are in the long term the creation of a federation between SDF/YPG held areas of northern Syria and the central government in Damascus as stated by their constituent assembly, and in the short term to protect themselves from the Turks (who are still along their "Free Syrian army" mercenaries threatening an attack on northern Syria - although apparently Erdogan delayed it according to recent statements). Neither of those will be happening anytime soon if the status quo between them and the Syrian government is ongoing.

The US has constantly proven to them that they aren't willing to protect them from a Turkish attack on their territories (as shown by the Turkish invasion of Afrin earlier this year) and now with Trump's decision to withdraw they left the Kurds in an unenviable situation. It was clear from the start that in the long term, the US will throw some allied militias in a country where all previous US foreign policy stances failed in favor of their NATO ally Turkey under the bus.
 

Rodger

Ad Honorem
Jun 2014
5,370
US
And what will be the reasoning of said airstrikes if the US ground forces withdraw?

Overall, Kurds aren't in an advantage. Their two main objectives right now are in the long term the creation of a federation between SDF/YPG held areas of northern Syria and the central government in Damascus as stated by their constituent assembly, and in the short term to protect themselves from the Turks (who are still along their "Free Syrian army" mercenaries threatening an attack on northern Syria - although apparently Erdogan delayed it according to recent statements). Neither of those will be happening anytime soon if the status quo between them and the Syrian government is ongoing.

The US has constantly proven to them that they aren't willing to protect them from a Turkish attack on their territories (as shown by the Turkish invasion of Afrin earlier this year) and now with Trump's decision to withdraw they left the Kurds in an unenviable situation. It was clear from the start that in the long term, the US will throw some allied militias in a country where all previous US foreign policy stances failed in favor of their NATO ally Turkey under the bus.
One may not agree with the U.S. position in this conflict but the benefits of airstrikes are obvious from a tactical vantage. Russia still has a presence there, correct? The airstrikes are likely more effective, militarily, than a few thousand trainers and observers. As for protecting the Kurds, as I posted, I am sympathetic to their plight, but most Americans are indifferent to the conflict there, which seems as if it will never end.
 

sparky

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
3,608
Sydney
Kurds and Assad have pretty much non conflictual relations ,
the SAA pockets in the Kurdish North were left in peace while there is no action than I can think of by the SAA against the Kurds
There is Russian troop in deconfliction Zone in the North ,
Russia sets up new military base in north Syria, Kurds say

the US needed Kurd muscle to stiffen the very bad Arab fighter of the SDF in Dar el Zur center and South ,
that's not Kurd land but the US wanted to stop Assad from reconquering the oilfields East of the Euphrates
the Kurds helped some but blackmailed the US into receiving heavy weapons which infuriated Turkey

don't worry too much about the Kurds ,there has been talk on autonomy within Syria , the terms of course ,change with the situation on the ground
an arrangement is probable , if only to get some SAA troops to man a cordon on the Turkish border
meanwhile the Der el Zur tribes can feel the wind shifting , there has been demonstration in Asaka flying the Syrian flag .
 
May 2015
1,009
The Netherlands
One may not agree with the U.S. position in this conflict but the benefits of airstrikes are obvious from a tactical vantage. Russia still has a presence there, correct? The airstrikes are likely more effective, militarily, than a few thousand trainers and observers. As for protecting the Kurds, as I posted, I am sympathetic to their plight, but most Americans are indifferent to the conflict there, which seems as if it will never end.
US airstrikes are reportedly going to end when the troops are pulled out of Syria. In other words, ISIS has not been defeated and Trump is pulling the rug out from under the successful efforts to defeat ISIS.
 

sparky

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
3,608
Sydney
the sad story of the US air strike in Syria is one of diffident , hesitant punctual strike with little effect
they have been sprinkling ordinance on the last pocket without clear result .
this except for the taking of Rakka which was in fact a negotiated withdrawal
the US proved to be much more efficient and keen when repeatedly bombing Assad positions
 
Likes: Frank81
Mar 2016
688
Antalya
Syria is by no means a sunni-majority country. More than 30,000,000 Christians of Levantine origin live primarily in Latin America and hopefully they are gonna repatriate.
Not even Turkey is a Sunni-majority country. Before the expulsion of Anatolian Christians during the fall of the Ottoman Empire Anatolian Christian population was 20-30%. Add to that 25% Alavis,
Syria is a Sunni majority country now -> fact -> your points makes no bloody sense. Turkey is irrelevant here. What is even more irrelevant is Turkey's historical demographics. I also have my doubts in the statistics you gave. In case you are wondering "is" is not a substitute for "was" in English.

As for recent news, USA is pulling out. Hopefully, they will completely stop shielding YPG terrorists and we (Turkey) or SAA will wipe the area from terrorist presence, ISIS, YPG alike. By the looks of it, Turkey is to replace USA for defeating what remains of ISIS. I find this a bit absurd, far reaches of Syria is not our business. Let SAA hold and clear the area. What we should focus on is clearing YPG from our border. Any kind of Apoist dreams of separatism/Kurdish ethno-state must be crushed with extreme force. Then again, USA wouldn't leave the region if it wasn't for some other force to serve their interests. Attempting to control a third of Syria is not something Turkey can pull in the presence of Russia as a potential enemy. I really hope our business with Syria is solely composed of border regions, towns, potential safe-heavens/recruitment centers for PKK/KCK/YPG.
 
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Likes: Ichon
Dec 2015
451
Middle East
Syria is a Sunni majority country now -> fact -> your points makes no bloody sense. Turkey is irrelevant here. What is even more irrelevant is Turkey's historical demographics. I also have my doubts in the statistics you gave. In case you are wondering "is" is not a substitute for "was" in English.

As for recent news, USA is pulling out. Hopefully, they will completely stop shielding YPG terrorists and we (Turkey) or SAA will wipe the area from terrorist presence, ISIS, YPG alike. By the looks of it, Turkey is to replace USA for defeating what remains of ISIS. I find this a bit absurd, far reaches of Syria is not our business. Let SAA hold and clear the area. What we should focus on is clearing YPG from our border. Any kind of Apoist dreams of separatism/Kurdish ethno-state must be crushed with extreme force. Then again, USA wouldn't leave the region if it wasn't for some other force to serve their interests. Attempting to control a third of Syria is not something Turkey can pull in the presence of Russia as a potential enemy. I really hope our business with Syria is solely composed of border regions, towns, potential safe-heavens/recruitment centers for PKK/KCK/YPG.
let me repeat: Syria is by no means a sunni majority country. 30,000,000 Christians of Levantine origin live in Latin America and the only reason they left was the Ottoman suppression. This is much like the Anatolian Christians who were expelled.

Very few places in the Middle East actually had a sunni majority prior to the fall of the Ottomans except maybe for the normads in najd. In, say, the Persian Gulf region there were almost no sunnis but in the 18-19th century they invaded and took over and made themselves "kings" now they are all stealing the oil which belongs to the Shias. Now you have stolen Anatolia and Syria.
 
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Mar 2016
688
Antalya
let me repeat: Syria is by no means a sunni majority country. 30,000,000 Christians of Levantine origin live in Latin America and the only reason the left was the Ottoman suppression. This is much like the Anatolian Christians who were expelled.

Very few places in the Middle East actually had a sunni majority prior to the fall of the Ottomans except maybe for the normads in najd.
Writing numbers/explicit zeros isn't going to mitigate your poor interaction with English Grammar. Syria was (according to your claim) Christian majority, not anymore. It is now a Sunni-majority country.
 

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